Sunday, November 23, 2014

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

This blog broke through 1.2 million all-time page view today!!!  Thank you to everyone who made this possible and to all the people who read this blog every day.  Thank you all!

One thing I learned years ago is that when a storm starts to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and then heads up the East Coast in winter, LOOK OUT!!!

A major Nor'easter is likely for Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning in the most densely populated area of the United States at the busiest travel time of the year… 

The data is very much coming into line with my thinking that I started talking about on the evening of Friday, November 14th, that is 9 days ago already.  Yes, that was my first mention of this possible storm.  Of course I did not get all the details right as I thought there might be severe weather before this storm developed, and there is, but it is over the Southeastern United States tonight.  The severe weather here turned out to be the heavy rain we will be getting late tonight into tomorrow morning.  I did mention the cold frontal passage which will happen Tuesday, and then I mentioned that a coastal storm might form after the front passes.  Well, that is exactly what is happening and I said all of this 9 DAYS AGO!!!  I will go back after the storm and lay everything out, but I think I pretty much said there would be a chance of snow every day after that leading up till now.  I almost gave up on this storm a few days back, but even then when the data was going against me, I didn't write it off completely.  Anyway, pasted below is a portion of the post.  You are welcome to use the search bar to go back and search out that post and look at every one I made after this.  Yes, I very often get these big storms from two weeks out.  The next paragraph is what I said two weeks ago.  Remember the severe weather potential I talk about is the heavy rain we will be get tomorrow morning and is currently occurring over the Southeastern United States right now.

I am quite concerned about the potential for severe weather next Tuesday and Wednesday (the day before Thanksgiving is the busiest travel day of the year) as a strong cold front and associated vigorous upper level low pressure area will be moving across the United States and nearing the East Coast next Wednesday.  There may be severe thunderstorms with this storm system and there is even a slight chance of a coastal storm forming after the cold front passes, heading toward Thanksgiving and Black Friday. 

Anyway, looking forward, we will have heavy rain late tonight into tomorrow morning then a chance of showers the rest of tomorrow and it will be quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 60’s and some areas could actually break 70.  Amazing. 

Then Tuesday morning the cold front will come through and temperatures will fall from the mid to upper 50’s in the morning to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by afternoon, then to the low to mid 30’s by Wednesday morning. 

Then all the fun begins as a low pressure area will start to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, then cross the Florida Peninsula, then up the East Coast of the United States.  The storm will turn into a Nor’easter as it crosses into the Atlantic and will strengthen as it starts to move northward to a point near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon and then to a point about 50 miles off the coast of New Jersey on Wednesday night, then to near Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and finally into the Gulf of Maine by Thanksgiving morning.  

This track would bring a very heavy snowfall to areas from the Southern Appalachians through Virginia (excluding southeastern sections), most of West Virginia, Maryland (excluding southeastern sections), Northwestern Delaware, most of Pennsylvania (excluding possibly the extreme western part), New Jersey (excluding possibly coastal and southeastern New Jersey), the majority of New York State (excluding possibly extreme western New York State and Eastern Long Island), Connecticut, Rhode Island (except possibly coastal locations), Massachusetts (excluding southeastern Massachusetts), Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

In the areas outline above there is likely to be a widespread swath of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 12-24 inches possible (especially across New England).

The snow will likely start in Northern New Jersey sometime between 6 and 8 am on Wednesday morning.  It may start briefly as some light rain or very wet snow but will quickly change to snow as the intensity of the snow increases.  The snow will then become moderate to heavy by around 10-11 am and quite heavy by around 1-2 pm when travel could start to become quite difficult in Northern New Jersey.  The snow will fall heavy at times through early on Thanksgiving morning before coming to an end around 6-7 am. 

The only thing that could cut back on accumulations in some locations would be that, as the storm approaches on Wednesday night at its closest point to us, it could bring some warm air off the ocean to some eastern locations.  This would have the potential to change the snow to rain for a brief period of time before changing back to snow.  We will have to see if that happens and where it happens if it does.  The areas that don’t mix or changeover have a very real chance to see up to or over a foot of snow. 

The good news is that it now appears that it may warm up after this storm somewhat, doing away with the other potential snow threats that had existed for next weekend and into the following week.

The next threat for snow seems to be a potential Nor’easter around the weekend of December 6th and 7th

Have a nice evening and please tell everyone about this blog. 

Join me in the morning for the latest information on the impending storm.

And if you want to escape all of this stuff, my dad happens to own a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  It was 86 degrees there today.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us

Quick Update

The afternoon data holds course for the most part today.  The only change would be to say that parts of central, southern and possibly parts of Northeastern New Jersey could mix with or change to sleet freezing rain or rain at the height of the storm before changing back to snow.  That could hold those locations to the lower end of my accumulation forecast of the 6-12 inches, locally 12-18 inches.

This does look like a significant and potentially dangerous storm for areas from roughly the Southern Appalachians up through Richmond, Virginia, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and up to Boston.  Areas near the coast could very well be spared the worst of the snow though as warm air may move in off the ocean.  New York City is really on the line too but right now they look like mostly snow as well.

More later with the evening weather discussion.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

A major snowstorm is likely for the most densely populated area of our country at the busiest time for travel. The timing could not be worse…

First though, it will be variably cloudy and warmer today with highs in the low 50’s.

Tonight rain will develop around 11 pm and become heavy at times overnight and into tomorrow morning around 9-10 am.  There will then be a chance of scattered showers the rest of the day with highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

A cold front will then move through early on Tuesday morning so the high temperatures will occur early in the morning with highs in the mid to upper 50’s, dropping to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by afternoon.  We should have mostly sunny skies. 

Then all the fun begins very early on Wednesday morning as a low pressure area will start to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico about 50 miles west of Tampa Bay and Fort Meyers, Florida.  This low pressure area will then move northeastward across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday morning, reaching a point about 50 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida.  It will then start to develop into a Nor'easter and head northward up the East Coast of the United States reaching a point near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon.  The storm will be strengthening as it is moving northward.  It will then reach a point about 100 miles off the coast of New Jersey on Wednesday night, then continue north to a point near Cape Cod, Massachusetts, then finally to a point in the Gulf of Maine on Thursday morning.    

If this track verifies as I have outlined above, a major snowstorm would be likely Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning for the Western Carolinas, Virginia (excluding southeastern sections), Eastern West Virginia, Maryland (excluding extreme southeastern sections), Delaware (excluding southeastern sections), the eastern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding possibly coastal sections), the eastern half of New York State including New York City and the western half of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts (excluding southeastern Massachusetts), all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

In these areas a large swath of 6-12 inches of snow will be likely with the possibility of localized amounts of 12-18 inches and localized amounts as much as 12-20 inches in New England.

There will also be a chance of a bit more snow on Saturday morning and again on Sunday night into Monday morning.

It should then warm up after that for a while.

SO NOW, LET’S DISCUSS WHAT COULD GO WRONG WITH THIS FORECAST.  REMEMBER, THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON THINGS WORKING OUT AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE. 

One thing that could go wrong is that the storm could track further east, leaving us with much lower snowfall amounts.  The second possibility is that the storm could track closer to the coast.  As you already probably noticed, I have excluded many of the coastal areas from the heavy snow area as the storm may come just close enough to the coast to allow some warm air to filter in there, keeping it mainly rain or a mix right along the coastal areas.  If the storm were to track closer to the coast or even inland it would allow warm air to filter in much further inland, causing rain to fall in many of the areas that I currently have designated as snow.  This is definitely still possible, although obviously I am not currently expecting that to happen.  It does however remain a possibility, especially in areas such as New York City and Western Long Island and possibly even into Northeastern New Jersey and Southern New Jersey.  Again, I don’t expect this at this time, but it is something that IS still possible.  I will certainly tell you immediately if my thoughts change.

The next thing to rant about is this:

The European model and the British model have the storm outlined very much along my line of thinking.  The European model got to my line of thinking early yesterday morning and the British model also came in line this morning.  Meanwhile, our American model just only now caught onto the storm.  Unfortunately, it is the older version of the model that they are planning to get rid of at the beginning of January that caught the storm this morning.

The newer version of the model, that they just spent a ton of money on to upgrade the computers and so on, is still nearly completely clueless about the storm. 

What is amazing is that they want to get rid of the older version of the model at the beginning of January and start using this newer version of the model that still does not depict the storm affecting us. 

Meanwhile the European and British models are right on track with my thoughts.

We are also paying Russia 70 million dollars per launch to take our astronauts into outer space because we don't currently have the ability to do this either.

We have a lot of work to do in this country.

Have a great day today and please tell all of your family members and friends about this blog.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – variably cloudy, rain developing around 11 pm and becoming heavy at times late at night, high in the low 50’s

TOMORROW – rain, heavy at times in the morning, tapering to scattered showers after about 9-10 am, low in the mid to upper 40’s, high in the mid to upper 60’s

TUESDAY – mostly sunny, early morning highs in the mid to upper 50’s, dropping to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by afternoon

WEDNESDAY – chance of light snow developing around 6-7 am, becoming moderate around 10-11 am, then heavy at times by around noon to 1 pm, then snow heavy at times until around midnight, significant accumulations likely, low in the low to mid 30’s and holding steady all day

THANKSGIVING – moderate to heavy snow ending around 2 am, then a chance of light snow and snow showers until around 7 am, then variably cloudy the rest of the day, total accumulations of 6-12 inches with local accumulations of 12-18 inches possible, low in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, high in the mid to upper 30’s

BLACK FRIDAY – variably cloudy, low in the low to mid 20’s, high in the mid 30’s

SATURDAY – chance of light snow in the morning, then variably cloudy, low in the upper teens to low 20’s, high in the mid 30’s

NEXT SUNDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow at night, low in the upper teens to low 20’s, high in the mid 30’s

NEXT MONDAY – chance of snow in the morning, then variably cloudy, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the upper 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT TUESDAY – variably cloudy, low in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, high in the mid 40’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – mostly sunny, low in the mid to upper 30’s, high in the upper 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – mostly sunny, low in the low 40’s, high in the low 50’s

NEXT FRIDAY – chance of showers, low in the low 40’s, high in the low 50’s

NEXT SATURDAY – variably cloudy, low in the upper 30’s to low 40’s, high in the low 50’s

American Model

It finally caught onto the storm, that is the older version that they are planning to get rid of at the beginning of January.

The newer version of the model, that they just spent a ton of money on to upgrade the computers and so on, is still nearly completely clueless and they want to get rid of the older version of the model at the beginning of January?

Meanwhile the European and British models are right on track with my thoughts.

We are also paying Russia 70 million dollars per launch to take our astronauts into outer space because we don't currently have the ability to do this either.

We have a lot of work to do in this country.

I will go into a rant on this topic in my morning discussion.

Quick Update

Major snowstorm likely Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning for the Western Carolinas, Virginia (excluding southeastern sections), Eastern West Virginia, Maryland (excluding extreme southeastern sections), Delaware (excluding southeastern sections), the eastern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding possibly coastal sections), the eastern half of New York State including New York City and the western half of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts (excluding southeastern Massachusetts), all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

In these areas a large swath of 6-12 inches of snow will be likely with the possibility of localized amounts of 12-20 inches (especially in New England).

There will also be a chance of a bit more snow on Saturday morning and again on Sunday night into Monday morning.

More by 7:15 am with the morning forecast and look at the next two weeks.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

A Major Nor’easter is now looking likely right at the busiest travel time of the entire year and in the most densely populated area of the country, Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving morning.  This will likely be followed by a chance for a bit more snow next Saturday and possibly again next Sunday afternoon into Monday morning just in time for everyone to try and make it back to wherever they are going.  The timing could not be worse…

First though, we will have a chance of a bit of drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight into tomorrow morning as low temperatures will drop to the low to mid 30’s, so if driving tonight into tomorrow morning, please be careful.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer as warm air starts to filter into our area ahead of an approaching cold front.  The highs tomorrow will be in the upper 40’s.

Rain should develop around midnight on Sunday night and become heavy at times overnight and into the morning, then tapering to showers late on Monday morning, with a chance of showers the rest of the day.  It will be quite warm as warm air surges northward into our area ahead of an approaching cold front.  The highs on Monday will be in the mid 60’s.

Tuesday will then be mostly sunny with early morning highs in the mid 50’s, dropping to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by afternoon after the cold front comes through, then will drop to the low to mid 30’s by Wednesday morning. 

Then early Wednesday morning all the fun begins as a low pressure area starts to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico just to the west of Tampa Bay and Fort Meyers, Florida.   

The low pressure area will then cross the Florida Peninsula and start to develop into a Nor’easter about 50 miles East of Jacksonville, Florida later on Wednesday morning.  At this point snow would be possible as far south as Eastern Alabama, Northern Georgia, Western South Carolina, Western North Carolina, and Western Virginia. 

The center of the Nor’easter will then track due north to a position near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon.  At this time heavy snow would be possible from Northern and Western Georgia through Western South Carolina, Western North Carolina, Virginia from about Richmond north and west through Baltimore, Washington D.C., Northern and Western Maryland, with lighter snow starting to move into the Eastern 2/3 of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, excluding possibly coastal sections, Southeastern New York, and Connecticut.  New York City and Western Long Island will most likely be boarder line with temperatures at this point. 

By Wednesday evening the Nor’easter will be strengthening with the center located about 100 miles off the Virginia Capes.  At this time light snow would be ending in Northern Georgia, South Carolina excluding coastal sections, with lighter snow in North Carolina, and heavy snow falling through much of Virginia excluding possibly coastal sections, most of Maryland excluding possibly areas near the Delmarva Peninsula, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey excluding possibly right along the coast, New York City and Western Long Island, all of Southeastern New York, and all of Southern New England with the snow just beginning in Northern New England.

By around midnight on Wednesday night the center of the Nor’easter should be located near Eastern Long Island with light snow coming to an end in North Carolina and light snow still falling in most of Virginia with moderate to heavy snow falling in Maryland, Delaware, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey excluding possibly coastal sections, most of New York State, probably into New York City and Western Long Island but they are close with the temperatures.  The snow could change to rain at that time in Southeastern New England including up to Boston, depending on the exact track of the storm. 

On Thanksgiving morning the snow will finally be coming to an end in Northeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey but will be continuing in New York State and most of New England, excluding possibly coastal New England including Boston where it may be rain, depending on the eventual track of the storm.

By Thanksgiving afternoon the snow should be coming to an end in all places except for far Northern New England where it will end on Thursday evening.

There will however be scattered snow showers through the day on Thanksgiving from Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward and possibly even into Friday.

If this track verifies as outlined above the potential would be there for a wide swath of 6-12 inches of snow, with localized amounts of 12 -18 inches from Western North Carolina through most of Virginia except for far southeastern sections, Eastern West Virginia, most of Maryland and Delaware except for right along the coast, the eastern two thirds of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey except for possibly right along the coast, New York City, the eastern two thirds of New York State, New York City and Western Long Island, excluding possibly Eastern Long Island, then all of Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, most of Massachusetts excluding southeastern sections, all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  From Connecticut through Massachusetts excluding southeastern sections, New Hampshire and Maine and possibly into Vermont some amounts of up to 20 inches would be possible. 

ALL OF THIS DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE VERIFYING AS IS.  ANY CHANGES WOULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND REMEMBER, THIS IS WEATHER, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.  IT COULD ALL GO AWAY TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH I DOUBT THAT WILL HAPPEN, PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS MOTHER NATURE WE ARE DEALING WITH!

Moving beyond this potential storm there may be a bit of light snow on Saturday, and then we will have to watch for the potential of another more significant storm that could produce some problems with some snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. 

After that things should warm up for a while. 

We just have to manage to get through the insanity of the next 9 days with 65 degrees likely on Monday, then possibly a major snowstorm Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving morning, then possibly a bit more snow next Saturday morning, then potentially another significant storm next Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  Oh my…

Have a nice evening and please join me in the morning for the latest information on this potentially serious and dangerous storm during the busiest travel time of the year.

Please tell all of your friends and family about this blog. 

Thank you.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us

Quick Update

After possibly a foot of snow Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving morning, we will likely have snow showers all day on Thanksgiving, then a chance of a little more snow on Saturday, more Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

Then it may finally warm up, but what terrible timing. The timing here simply could not be worse.

More later with the full detailed weather discussion and forecast.

Please tell your friends about this blog.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us