How is this possible? It is possible due to the fact that a strong piece of upper level energy (a piece of the Polar Vortex) will be diving down from Northern Canada tomorrow and Saturday, reaching the Coast of South Carolina on Saturday afternoon. This is simply stunning, especially this early in the year.
As this piece of very cold upper level energy reaches the very warm waters of the Coastal Carolinas and the warm Gulf Stream waters off shore, intense and explosive development of the low pressure area is likely to occur on Saturday night.
As the storm explodes off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday night it will start moving Northeast, parallel to the Coast. The big question is how close the storm will make it to our area on Saturday night, especially late on Saturday night and early on Sunday morning.
It had looked as if the storm might come fairly close to the New Jersey Coast a few days ago, then it started trending offshore, now it is starting to move closer to the New Jersey Coast again.
To give you an idea, the American model is run four times a day and it has 12 ensemble members on each run (they tweak the model 12 different ways to account for different variables). On the prior three runs today, all combined only 1 out of 36 ensemble members showed us getting a decent hit from the storm on Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Now, the run that came out a few hours ago is showing 4 out of 12 members showing a decent hit from this storm on Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is interesting because this is also the time when the rain would have the chance of changing to snow as the cold air would start to move in around the back side of the storm.
We will have to watch tomorrow and see if the storm continues to trend closer to the coast, and it might. This is exactly what happened with the storm a week or so ago that pummeled Central New Jersey. This storm still has the potential to bring us at least a bit of snow late on Saturday night into Sunday morning and possibly a heavy snowfall for Northern New England, but it all depends upon how close the storm eventually comes to the Coast. We will have to wait and see.
Join me first thing in the morning to see the latest in this saga.
Have a nice evening.