Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Late Afternoon Short-Range American Model Snowfall Map

Click here or on the map below to view the latest short-range American model snowfall map for Wednesday night into Thursday.

As you can see, a narrow band of heavy snow will develop somewhere nearby. Most likely, across Central NJ, once again putting Northwestern counties on the fringes.

Quick Late Morning Update

As I had been suspecting, the latest short-range American model did indeed shift further south, cutting the main axis of precipitation throughout our entire area, with the heaviest band across Central NJ, just like all the others this winter. This is for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Click here or on the map below to view the latest snowfall map from the short-range American model.


Tuesday, March 3, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

A significant snow and ice storm will commence this afternoon and a significant snowstorm will commence tomorrow night…

The snow will develop today between about 1 pm and 4 pm from west to east across our area. The snow should rather rapidly change to sleet by around 6 pm as a warm layer of air will move in above the clouds, melting the snowflakes and causing significant sleet to fall this evening. There should be a dusting to up to 2 inches of snow accumulation prior to the change to sleet. As temperatures continue to warm the sleet will change to freezing rain between about midnight and 5 am from south to north across our area. There could be up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation prior to the changeover to light rain. Light rain and drizzle will then continue through the day, changing back to snow between 7 pm and midnight as another storm system approaches our area. The snow will then come to an end on Thursday afternoon between about 3 pm and 7 pm from northwest to southeast across our area. I am expecting total accumulations of 4-8 inches throughout the New York City Metropolitan area.

The storm approaching for tomorrow night is the same one that produced a massive hail storm that accumulated on the beaches in Southern California yesterday. Click here to view the amazing pictures. Yes, this is a very dynamic system.

After this storm passes we will have a chance of slight chance of a snow shower on Saturday night, a slight chance of snow on Monday, then next week looks nice and a bit warmer.

The next chance of rain or snow would then be the following Sunday and Monday.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2015 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – snow developing between 1 pm and 4 pm from west to east, changing to sleet by around 6 pm, then freezing rain by 10 pm, total snow accumulation of a dusting to 2 inches possible, total ice accumulation of up t a quarter inch possible, high in the low 30’s at night

TOMORROW – freezing rain changing to rain between midnight and 5 am from south to north, then light rain and drizzle during the day, changing to snow between 7 pm and midnight from northwest to southeast, low in the low to mid 30’s, high in the upper 30’s to low 40’s

THURSDAY – snow, ending between 3 pm and 7 pm from northwest to southeast, total possible accumulation of 4-8 inches, low in the low to mid 20’s, high in the low 30’s early in the morning, dropping to the low to mid 20’s by afternoon

FRIDAY – mostly sunny, low in the low to mid single digits, high in the low to mid 20’s

SATURDAY – mostly sunny in the morning, variably cloudy in the afternoon and evening with a slight chance of a snow shower at night, low in the mid to upper single digits, high in the mid 30’s

SUNDAY – mostly sunny, low in the upper teens to low 20’s, high in the mid 30’s

MONDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of snow, low in the mid to upper teens, high in the mid to upper 30’s

NEXT TUESDAY – variably cloudy, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the low 40’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of snow, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the mid 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – variably cloudy, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the upper 30’s                           

NEXT FRIDAY – mostly sunny, low in the upper teens to low 20’s, high in the upper 30’s

NEXT SATURDAY – increasing cloudiness, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the mid 40’s

NEXT SUNDAY – chance of rain or snow, low in the low to mid 30’s, high in the low to mid 40’s

NEXT MONDAY – chance of rain or snow, low in the low to mid 30’s, high in the low to mid 40’s

Another Quick Early Morning Update

I am going to go back to a dusting to an inch or two of snowfall for tonight with up to a quarter inch of ice.  Upon closer look, of the latest projected profile of the atmosphere for this evening, there will be an above freezing level of the atmosphere just above the clouds. This should melt the snowfall and change it to sleet rather rapidly after starting.

The second storm I am still increasing potential snowfall amounts to 4 - 8 inches throughout the entire New York City Metropolitan area.

Quick Early Morning Update

I am going to increase snowfall amounts for tonight to 1-4 inches with up to a tenth of an inch of ice and for tomorrow night into Thursday morning to 4-8 inches. 

More by 6 am with the morning weather discussion and look at the next two weeks.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Quick Evening Update

The short-range American model just came out for Wednesday night into Thursday. Click here or on the map below to view its latest snowfall map. As I said, I believed it was too far northwest on the last run. It has indeed shifted southeast, but it is likely still too far northwest. It will figure it out eventually and what you will see is that this band will likely end up right through the middle of the New York City Metropolitan area.

I am probably going to have to adjust snowfall amounts up to 4-8 inches in the morning and I would expect Winter Storm Watches to be issued by tomorrow evening at the latest.


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Monday, March 2, 2015 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, here we go again...

A significant snow/ice storm will commence tomorrow in our area between about 3 pm and 5 pm from west to east.

It will start as snow, then change to sleet and freezing rain by about 8-10 pm from south to north across our area. A dusting to an inch or two of snow is likely before the changeover.

The freezing rain will then change to rain between about midnight and 4 am from south to north across our area with a tenth to a quarter inch of ice possible.

We will then have light rain and drizzle during the day on Wednesday, changing to snow between 8 pm and midnight on Wednesday from northwest to southeast across our area.

The snow will then come to an end between about 2 pm and 6 pm on Thursday from northwest to southeast across our area.

I am now going to increase my potential accumulations from 2-5 inches that I had this morning to 3-6 inches for our entire area (Eastern PA, NJ, Southeastern NY, New York City, Long Island. And I believe I may very well have to increase this again tomorrow as I am starting to think we will be right in the middle of this heavy band that will set up. As you can see in the two American models, the short range model is likely too far northwest with the band and the medium range model is likely too far southeast with the band. Most of the models are right in between, including the typically very reliable European ensemble mean.

Click here or on the map below to view the latest medium range American model snowfall map. (subtract about in inch due to the fact that it includes snow from tomorrow night)

Click here or on the map below to view the latest short-range American model snowfall map.

Beyond this storm, there will be a chance of snow on Monday as a storm approaching from the Southeastern United States may merge with a storm dropping down from Canada.

We will then have a chance of some snow showers next Wednesday.

The next chance of snow will then be the following Sunday and Monday.

Please join me early in the morning for the latest information.



"Weather on the Edge" by Dr. Edge.

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