Monday, February 18, 2019

Snow Pushes Further North - Latest Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain Maps from the Short-Range American Model

The snow pushed further north at the last minute, with ice the bigger problem in most of our area.

At my location in Allamuchy Township, Warren County, NJ,  I have a moderate mixture of sleet and freezing rain at the moment and everything is covered in ice.

Below is the latest snow map from the short-range American model, as you can see it shifted considerably northward with the snow from the prior run.

Click on the images to enlarge. All images courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. 


Below is the latest sleet map from the short-range American model.


And below is the latest freezing rain map from the short-range American model.


It still looks as if the Wednesday storm will be a bigger concern for much of our area, especially in southern sections who are missing out this time.

More a bit later this morning with the Look at the Next 2 Weeks and Morning Weather Discussion...

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Sunday, February 17, 2019

Sunday Late Afternoon Short-Range American Model Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain Maps

Below are the latest snow, sleet, and freezing rain maps from the short-range American model. The snow is in half inch increments. Images courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Click on the images to enlarge.

Below is the latest snow map from the short-range American model.



Below is the latest sleet map from the short-range American model.


Below is the latest freezing rain map from the short-range American model.


We will have to wait and see how this all works out...


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Sunday, February 17, 2019 - Evening Weather Discussion

Some snow and ice tonight, significant in some places, and a bigger problem for much of our area Wednesday…

A disturbance approaching from the west will cause light snow to develop throughout our area this evening, starting between about 6 pm in East Central PA and 10 pm on Eastern Long Island, with light snow or light rain in Central NJ, becoming heavier between about 9 pm and 11 pm, changing quickly to rain in Central NJ, and to sleet and freezing rain in East Central PA, parts of Northeastern PA, and Northern NJ, and possibly to rain in NYC and on Long Island by midnight. The precipitation will end between around 6 am in East Central PA and 10 am on Eastern Long Island, followed by clearing. Highs will range from the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 40’s in Central NJ.

Total possible snow and ice accumulation:

A trace possible:  Central NJ

A trace to an inch with locally higher amounts possible:  East Central PA, Northern NJ (roughly south of Rt. 80), NYC, and Long Island

One to three inches with locally higher amounts possible:  Northeastern PA, Northern NJ (roughly north of Rt. 80), Southern Westchester County, NY, and Southwestern CT

Two to five inches with locally higher amounts possible:  Orange, Rockland, Northern Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY, and Northeastern Fairfield County, CT

More a bit later with the Evening Weather Discussion...

Tuesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

Wednesday another disturbance will approach from the west, causing snow to develop in the morning to early afternoon from southwest to northeast across our area, changing to sleet, then freezing rain, and then rain at night as warm air moves into our area. Highs will be late at night and will range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT, to the mid to upper 30’s in Central NJ.

Total possible snowfall accumulations before any changeover to ice:

One to two inches possible:  far northern Northeast PA, Southeastern NY State, Fairfield County, CT, and Eastern Long Island

One to three inches possible:  southern portions of Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Western Long Island

Two to four inches:  East Central PA, Southern and Central NJ

Three to five inches:  Southeastern PA

A significant accumulation of ice is then possible in all of Eastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, after the changeover from snow Wednesday night.

Thursday the rain will end early in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

Friday will then be nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Saturday clouds will increase with rain developing at night, possibly starting as a brief period of snow, sleet, or freezing rain in some locations as a disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Sunday, February 24th, there will be a chance of rain as the disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

Next Monday, February 25th, and next Tuesday, February 26th, will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Monday and the 30’s to low 40’s next Tuesday.

Next Wednesday, February 27th, there will be a chance of rain or snow as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Thursday, February 28th there will be a chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, followed by clearing, as the disturbance departs our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Friday, March 1st, there will again be a chance of rain or snow as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Saturday, March 2nd, is then looking nice with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Have a wonderful evening!


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Updated Snow/Ice Estimates for Tonight into Tomorrow Morning...

Total possible snow and ice accumulation:

A trace possible:  Central NJ

A trace to an inch with locally higher amounts possible:  East Central PA, Northern NJ (roughly south of Rt. 80), NYC, and Long Island

One to three inches possible:  Northeastern PA, Northern NJ (roughly north of Rt. 80), Southern Westchester County, NY, and Southwestern CT

Two to five inches possible:  Orange, Rockland, Northern Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY, and Northeastern Fairfield County, CT

More a bit later with the Evening Weather Discussion...


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Sunday Morning Short-Range American Model Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain Maps

The maps below differ a bit from my official forecast posted a bit earlier this morning. I will post another snow and ice update this afternoon after all the latest data is available. Let's see how this goes.

All images courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Click on the images to enlarge. For those of you with iPhones who were having difficulty viewing the maps properly, please try reinstalling the app and see if this helps as a new version of the app was recently submitted to the app store.

Below is the latest snow map from the short-range American model. Snow contours are in half-inch increments.


Below is the latest sleet map from the short-range American model.


Below is the latest freezing rain map from the short-range American model.



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Sunday, February 17, 2019 - Morning Weather Discussion

Three disturbances will approach our area in the next week bringing a mixture of precipitation to our area…

Today, clouds will increase as a disturbance approaches from the west, with snow developing this evening and rain or snow developing in Central NJ, between about 7 pm in East Central PA and 10 pm on Eastern Long Island and in Fairfield County, CT, becoming steady between about 10 pm in East Central PA and midnight in Fairfield County, CT and on Eastern Long Island, and snow changing to rain in Central NJ, snow changing to sleet and then freezing rain in East Central and most of Northeastern PA (except possibly far Northeastern sections), Northern NJ (except possibly Northern Sussex County, Northern Passaic County, and far Northwestern Bergen County), NYC, and on Long Island. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30’s.

Tomorrow the snow will change to rain in New York City and on Long Island early in the morning and possibly in Northeastern NJ as well, possibly changing back to some light snow or snow showers in the morning between about 7 am in East Central PA and 11 am on Eastern Long Island. Lows will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Total possible snow or snow and ice accumulations:

Trace to a coating with up to an inch in some isolated locations possible:  Central NJ

Trace to an inch with locally higher amounts possible:  East Central PA, Northern NJ (excluding Northern Sussex, Northern Passaic, and far Northwestern Bergen Counties), Southern Westchester County, in NY, and on Long Island

One to three inches possible:  Northeastern PA, Northern Sussex, Northern Passaic, and far Northwestern Bergen Counties in NJ, Southeastern Rockland and Central Westchester Counties in NY, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

Two to four inches possible:  Orange, Northwestern Rockland, Northern Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY, and Northern Fairfield County, CT

Tuesday will then be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

Wednesday another disturbance will approach from the west, causing snow to develop in the morning into early afternoon, changing to sleet and then freezing rain in the afternoon and evening, and then to rain in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island in the evening, and then possibly everywhere else at night.  Lows in the morning will range from the low to mid teens in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, to the mid 20’s in Central NJ, with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

Thursday rain, or freezing possible in some locations, ending in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

Friday will then be nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Saturday another disturbance will approach from the west causing rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet to develop. Highs will be int eh upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Sunday, February 24th, any mixed precipitation likely changing to rain before ending. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

Next Monday, February 25th through next Wednesday, February  27th are then looking nice with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s next Monday, the 30’s next Tuesday, and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday, February 28th and Friday, March 1st will then be variably cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Thursday and the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Friday.

Next Saturday, March 2nd will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Have a fantastic day!


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Sunday, February 17, 2019 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – increasing cloudiness with snow developing this evening, and rain or snow developing in Central NJ, between about 7 pm in East Central PA and 10 pm on Eastern Long Island and in Fairfield County, CT, becoming steady between about 10 pm in East Central PA and midnight in Fairfield County, CT and on Eastern Long Island, and snow changing to rain in Central NJ, snow changing to sleet and then freezing rain in East Central and most of Northeastern PA (except possibly far Northeastern sections), Northern NJ (except possibly Northern Sussex County, Northern Passaic County, and far Northwestern Bergen County), NYC, and on Long Island, highs in the mid to upper 30’s

TOMORROW – snow then changing to rain in NYC and on Long Island early in the morning and possibly in Northeastern NJ as well, possibly changing back to some light snow or snow showers in the morning between about 7 am in East Central PA and 11 am on Eastern Long Island. Lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s

Total possible snow or snow and ice accumulations:

Trace to a coating with up to an inch in some isolated locations possible:  Central NJ

Trace to an inch with locally higher amounts possible:  East Central PA, Northern NJ (excluding Northern Sussex, Northern Passaic, and far Northwestern Bergen Counties), Southern Westchester County, in NY, and on Long Island

One to three inches possible:  Northeastern PA, Northern Sussex, Northern Passaic, and far Northwestern Bergen Counties in NJ, Southeastern Rockland and Central Westchester Counties in NY, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

Two to four inches possible:  Orange, Northwestern Rockland, Northern Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY, and Northern Fairfield County, CT

TUESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the teens to low 20’s, highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s

WEDNESDAY – snow developing in the morning into early afternoon, changing to sleet and then freezing rain in the afternoon and evening, and then to rain in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island in the evening, and then possibly everywhere else at night, lows from the low to mid teens in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, to the mid 20’s in Central NJ, highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s

THURSDAY – rain, or freezing rain possible in some locations, ending in the morning, followed by clearing, lows from the upper 20’s in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT, to the low to mid 30’s in Central NJ and on Long Island, highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s

FRIDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

SATURDAY – rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet developing, lows in the upper teens and 20’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT SUNDAY – any mixed precipitation likely changing to rain before ending, lows in the 30’s, highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT TUESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the 30’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – variably cloudy, chance of rain or snow showers, lows in the upper teens and 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT FRIDAY – variably cloudy, chance of rain or snow showers, lows in the 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT SATURDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s


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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Saturday, February 16, 2019 - Evening Weather Discussion

Mixed precipitation tomorrow night, possibly even significant in some places and then more Wednesday, but possibly not as bad as previously expected…

Clouds will increase tomorrow as a disturbance approaches from the west, with snow developing at night between around 8 pm in East Central and Northeastern PA and 11 pm on Eastern Long Island. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30’s.

Monday, the snow will then change to rain in Central NJ around midnight, and then around 2-3 am in NYC and on most of Long Island, except possibly parts of the North Shore, and snow changing to freezing rain and sleet in East Central PA, and Northern NJ (except for possibly in Northern Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties). The precipitation will likely change back to some light snow everywhere before ending from west to east between around 8 am in East Central PA and 11 am on Eastern Long Island. There will still be a chance of snow showers into the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Total possible snow or snow and ice accumulations as follows:

A trace to an inch of snow and ice possible:  Central NJ (south of roughly Rt. 78)

A coating to an inch or two of snow and ice possible:  East Central PA (south of roughly Rt. 80), Northern NJ (south of roughly Rt. 80), NYC, and Long Island

One to three inches of snow and ice from south to north:  Northern NJ roughly from Rt. 78 northward (excluding Northern Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties)

Two to four inches of snow possible:  Northeastern PA, Northern Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties in NJ, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY State, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

Three to five inches of snow possible:  Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Northern Fairfield County, CT

Tuesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

Wednesday snow will develop in the morning and early afternoon as another disturbance approaches from the west, but will change to sleet, then freezing rain, then rain as warm air overruns the cold air at the surface once again. Highs will be at night and will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Thursday the precipitation will end early in the morning with highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

Friday will then be nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Saturday, February 23rd, clouds will increase with a chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet developing at night as another disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Sunday, February 24th, there will be a chance of rain ending in the morning followed by clearing. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

Next Monday, February 25th, through next Thursday, February 28th are then looking nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Monday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Tuesday through Thursday.

Next Friday, March 1st, there will be a chance of rain or snow with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Have a wonderful evening!

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