Thursday, January 19, 2017

Thursday, January 19, 2017 - Morning Weather Discussion

Winter will be returning to our area, but just how soon is the question…

First though, it will be nice today with highs in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Tomorrow we will have increasing cloudiness with rain developing in the late afternoon or early evening as a warm front approaches our area. Highs will range from around 40 in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 40’s in Central NJ.

Saturday will then be variably cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. Highs will range from the mid 40’s to the mid 50’s.

Sunday, we will have increasing cloudiness with a chance of rain developing as a strong storm system approaches from the Southeastern United States. Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s.

Sunday night through Tuesday morning we will have a chance of rain or snow as the storm system over the Southeastern United States move northeastward, reaching a point off the Virginia Capes by Monday night, about 100 miles off the NJ Coast by Tuesday morning, and then just southeast of Cape Cod by Tuesday afternoon. This track would ordinarily mean snow in our area in the middle to end of January, but there is still a question as to how much cold air this storm will have to work with.  Right now it would appear that Northeastern PA would have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow with this storm, but it is still too early to tell if the snow might affect a wider part of our area, or possibly even our entire area, so be sure to check back for updates. Highs should be in the low to mid 40’s Sunday and the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through the following Wednesday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a rain shower Wednesday, a rain or snow shower next Thursday, as a cold front passes through our area, and then a snow shower next Friday through the following Wednesday. Highs will be in the 40’s Wednesday, the upper 30’s and 40’s next Thursday, dropping to the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Friday and mainly the 30’s next Saturday through Wednesday.

Please join me this evening for the latest information.

Have a fantastic day!

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Thursday, January 19, 2017 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – mostly sunny, highs in the 40’s to low 50’s

TOMORROW – increasing cloudiness, rain developing in the late afternoon or early evening, ending at night, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, except the mid 30’s along the NJ Coast, highs from the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 40’s in Central NJ

SATURDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a shower, lows in the mid to upper 30’s, except the low 40’s on Eastern Long Island, highs from the mid 40’s to the mid 50’s

SUNDAY – increasing cloudiness, chance of rain developing, then a chance of rain or snow at night, possibly heavy at times, becoming windy, lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s, highs in the low to mid 40’s

MONDAY – chance of rain or snow, possibly heavy at times, windy, lows in the 30’s, highs from the mid 30’s to the mid 40’s

TUESDAY – chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, then clearing, lows in the 30’s, highs from the mid 30’s to the mid 40’s

WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a rain shower, lows from the mid to upper 20’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 30’s on Eastern Long Island, highs in the 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a rain or snow shower, lows from the low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low 40’s in Central NJ and on Long Island, highs from the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 40’s in Central NJ

NEXT FRIDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a rain or snow shower, lows in the 20’s inland and the low 30’s along the coast, highs from the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 40’s in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island

NEXT SATURDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT SUNDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the 20’s, highs in the 30’s

NEXT MONDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers at night, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the low to mid 30’s

NEXT TUESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers ending in the morning, then clearing, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the 30’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the 20’s, highs in the 30’s

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Wednesday, January 18, 2017 - Evening weather Discussion

Chances increase for a wintry Sunday night/Monday…

The chances have increased quite a bit that the we will have a wintry solution to the Sunday Night/Monday storm…

First though, it will be nice tomorrow with highs in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Friday will then start out nice, but clouds will increase in the afternoon, with a chance of rain in the late afternoon and evening as a warm front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 40’s, with some low 50’s possible in parts of Central NJ.

Saturday will then be nice with highs in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

Sunday, a strong storm system will be moving through Oklahoma and heading east, reaching the Southeastern United States by Sunday night. The storm will be strengthening as it heads into the Southeastern United States. The storm will then turn northeastward, reaching a point near the Virginia Capes by Monday afternoon, and then to a point about 50-100 miles off the coast of NJ Monday night, then to a point just off Cape Cod by Tuesday afternoon. This track would typically mean snow in our area in the second half of January, especially with how strong this storm is likely to be. However, the set-up is not completely ideal for snow, as there is no cold air readily available to our north for the storm to pull down, even with this perfect track for a snowstorm. However, this storm is still 4-5 days away and there is time for things to change. It would not take much of a change to make this a snowstorm instead of a rainstorm. I must emphasize that the data still favors this being a rainstorm, but honestly, the data shifted quite substantially towards what my concern has been with this storm, that it might redevelop quicker and take a track just as it is showing tonight. That track is not enough however. The storm would have to not only take the perfect track, but would have to be quite strong as it approaches our area, and redevelop a bit further east, closer to the coast, rather than over the Southeastern United States. This book is yet to have been written and we will just have to wait and see how this works out.

So, for now, I will go with a chance of rain or snow developing Sunday afternoon or evening and continuing through the day on Monday, possibly heavy at times. It will also be windy.  Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s Sunday and the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Monday.

Tuesday will then be variably cloudy with highs in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Next Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a rain shower and highs will be in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Next Thursday through Sunday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers each day as several disturbances approach from the west. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday, the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Friday, and the 30’s next Saturday and Sunday.

Next Monday and Tuesday then look nice with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Monday and Tuesday.

Have a fantastic evening and please join me tomorrow morning for the latest information…

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Chances for A Wintry Monday/Tuesday Increase...

The chances for a wintry solution to the Monday/Tuesday storm have just increased quite a bit in the latest data...

More a bit later with the Evening Weather Discussion...

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 - Morning Weather DIscussion

Warmth and a BIG storm…

The story over the next 10 days or so may be the warmth and a BIG storm…

First of all, there will be a few areas of patchy freezing rain this morning in the higher elevations of Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Northern Fairfield County, CT. Highs will range from the mid 30’s to the mid 40’s today.

Tomorrow should then be quite nice with highs in the 40’s, but with some low 50’s likely in Central NJ.

Friday, we will have increasing cloudiness with rain developing in the late afternoon or evening, ending at night as a warm front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 40’s.

Saturday then looks quite nice with highs in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

Sunday a strong storm system will approach from the west. The latest data is now showing this storm transferring its energy to the coast a bit later than it did last night, with the main storm making it all the way to about Pittsburgh, and that would allow for much warmer temperatures in our area. The storm will however eventually reform near the Delmarva and then track southeast of Cape Cod. This track would bring us a chance of a shower Sunday morning with rain developing during the day Sunday and continuing through the day Monday, possibly heavy at times. It will also likely be windy. Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s Sunday and the mid 40’s to mid 50’s Monday. I will continue to keep a close eye on this storm, as if the main storm were to redevelop quicker along the coast, it would allow colder air into our area.

Tuesday through next Friday then look nice with highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s Tuesday, the upper 40’s and 50’s next Wednesday, the mid 40’s to low 50’s next Thursday, and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Friday.

Next Saturday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Sunday and Monday then look nice with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s next Sunday and the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Monday.

Next Tuesday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers as a weak disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Have a fantastic day!

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – variably cloudy, chance of a shower, especially this morning, chance of a little freezing rain in some of the higher elevations this morning, especially in Northeastern PA, highs from the mid 30’s in parts of Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Northern Fairfield County, CT, to the low to mid 40’s in East Central PA and Central NJ

TOMORROW – mostly sunny, lows in the low to mid 30’s, highs in the 40’s, to low 50’s in Central NJ

FRIDAY – increasing cloudiness, rain developing in the late afternoon or evening, ending at night, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, except the mid 30’s along the NJ Coast, highs in the 40’s

SATURDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 30’s to low 40’s, highs in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s

SUNDAY – cloudy, chance of a shower in the morning, then rain developing, lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s, highs in the low to mid 40’s

MONDAY – rain, possibly heavy at times, lows in the mid 30’s to low 40’s, highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s

TUESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the low to mid 40’s, highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the low to mid 30’s, highs in the upper 40’s and 50’s

NEXT THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the low to mid 30’s, highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s

NEXT FRIDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT SATURDAY – variably cloudy, chance of a snow shower, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT SUNDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the 20’s, highs in the 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper teens and 20’s, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

NEXT TUESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Tuesday, January 17, 2017 - Evening Weather Discussion

BIG Storm Monday and next Tuesday…

First though, we will have rain tonight and a chance of a shower tomorrow morning as a weak storm system passes through our area. Highs will range from the mid 30’s in parts of Southeastern NY, Northern Fairfield County, CT, and Northwestern NJ, to the mid 40’s in East Central PA.

Thursday will then be nice with highs ranging from the low to mid 40’s in Northeastern PA to the low 50’s in Central NJ.

Friday, clouds will increase, with a chance of some rain at night as a warm front pushes through our area. Highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 40’s.

Saturday will then be nice with highs in the 50’s, with some low 60’s possible in Central NJ.

Sunday clouds will increase as a very strong storm system approaches from the west. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Monday, we will have a chance of rain or snow, possibly heavy at times, and it will be windy, as the strong storm system approaching from the west starts to redevelop near the Virginia Capes or the Delmarva Peninsula Monday night. Highs will be in the 30’s or 40’s depending on how exactly this storm develops and the track that it takes.

Next Tuesday, we will have a chance of rain or snow, possibly heavy at times, as a strong Nor’easter develops off the Virginia Capes or Delmarva Peninsula and then tracks northeast, south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. This storm still looks warm in most of the data, but we will need to keep a very close eye on this one, as it will likely be a very strong storm, with the potential for either very heavy flooding rains and tidal flooding, or very heavy snow. Right now, the data heavily favors rain, but this is one we must watch very closely. Highs will be in the 30’s or 40’s depending on exactly how this storm develops and the exact track that it takes.

Next Wednesday then looks nice with highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

Next Thursday should be variably cloudy with a chance of a shower as a cold front approaches. Highs will be in the 40’s.

Next Friday through Sunday then look nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Friday, the mid to upper 30’s next Saturday, and the 30’s next Sunday.

Next Monday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Have a wonderful evening!

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Tuesday, January 17, 2017 - Morning Weather Discussion

Warm weather to continue through the next 10 days…

Unusually warm weather will continue for the next 2 weeks in the New York City and Allentown Metropolitan areas. Sure, it will be cool some days with near-normal temperatures but for the most part it will be unusually warm considering it is the second half of January.

There will be some rain showers today into tomorrow morning and they could be mixed with a bit of ice in some locations, mainly this morning.

We will then have some rain Friday night as a disturbance moves through our area.

Then the next system to watch closely will be a strong storm that will approach from the west Monday and next Tuesday.  This storm is likely to form into a strong Nor’easter off the NJ Coast next Tuesday, but at the moment this system continues to look rather warm for this time of year, so I am going with a chance of heavy rain with this storm.  I will however keep a close eye on it.

Have a fantastic day!

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