Thursday, October 30, 2014

Thursday, October 30, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Snow in Northern Georgia and Western South Carolina?  Really?  No guarantees, but it is a real possibility, as is significant snowfall for the Appalachian Mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia.  Unreal.

How is this possible?  It is possible due to the fact that a strong piece of upper level energy (a piece of the Polar Vortex) will be diving down from Northern Canada tomorrow and Saturday, reaching the Coast of South Carolina on Saturday afternoon.  This is simply stunning, especially this early in the year.

As this piece of very cold upper level energy reaches the very warm waters of the Coastal Carolinas and the warm Gulf Stream waters off shore, intense and explosive development of the low pressure area is likely to occur on Saturday night.

As the storm explodes off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday night it will start moving Northeast, parallel to the Coast.  The big question is how close the storm will make it to our area on Saturday night, especially late on Saturday night and early on Sunday morning.

It had looked as if the storm might come fairly close to the New Jersey Coast a few days ago, then it started trending offshore, now it is starting to move closer to the New Jersey Coast again.

To give you an idea, the American model is run four times a day and it has 12 ensemble members on each run (they tweak the model 12 different ways to account for different variables).  On the prior three runs today, all combined only 1 out of 36 ensemble members showed us getting a decent hit from the storm on Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  Now, the run that came out a few hours ago is showing 4 out of 12 members showing a decent hit from this storm on Saturday night into Sunday morning.  This is interesting because this is also the time when the rain would have the chance of changing to snow as the cold air would start to move in around the back side of the storm.

We will have to watch tomorrow and see if the storm continues to trend closer to the coast, and it might.  This is exactly what happened with the storm a week or so ago that pummeled Central New Jersey.  This storm still has the potential to bring us at least a bit of snow late on Saturday night into Sunday morning and possibly a heavy snowfall for Northern New England, but it all depends upon how close the storm eventually comes to the Coast.  We will have to wait and see.

Join me first thing in the morning to see the latest in this saga.

Have a nice evening.

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Quick Update

Snow possible now as far south as Northern Georgia and Western South Carolina. This is just unreal. There are also some indications starting to appear that this storm may track a bit closer to the coast again.  Full update later.

Thursday, October 30, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Below is a photo my wife took last evening of a beautiful rainbow over the Panther Valley Golf Course and my son.  If you look closely you can see a bit of a double rainbow.






It definitely looks as if we are going to luck out this time…

First though, it will be quite nice today with highs in the mid 50’s.

Tomorrow we will have increasing cloudiness with light rain developing around 10 pm.  Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50’s.

Saturday a strong upper level low pressure area (a piece of the Polar Vortex) will track southward and eastward through the Southern Appalachian Mountains.  This will cause snow in areas as far south as the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina, and possibly significant amounts.  As this piece of the Polar Vortex reaches the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, a strong Nor’easter will start to develop and track northeast as it intensifies.  It will however remain far enough off shore to keep the heavy precipitation out to sea, leaving us with only some light rain/drizzle/showers on Saturday into Saturday night.  It is possible that the light rain and showers could mix with wet light snow or snow showers late on Saturday night, but even if it does, it should not accumulate as temperatures will remain above freezing.  The high on Saturday will be around 50.

Yes, if you want to see snow, head to Tennessee and North Carolina.  I think this one may even miss New England.  

Things will then clear out on Sunday and cool down with highs only in the mid 40’s.

Monday will be quite nice, but quite cool with lows around freezing and highs in the low 50’s.

Tuesday through Thursday a cold front will approach, then pass through our area, leaving us with a chance of a shower each day and highs in the low 60’s Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping to the mid 50’s on Thursday behind the front.

Next Friday through Sunday should then be variably cloudy with temperatures gradually falling from the mid to upper 50’s to the low to mid 40’s.

Next Monday and Tuesday will then be mostly sunny but cold with lows in the 20’s and highs in the 40’s.

Next Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a shower and highs in the low 50’s.

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Thursday, October 30, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – mostly sunny, high in the mid 50’s

HALLOWEEN – increasing cloudiness, light rain developing around 10pm, low in the mid to upper 30’s, high in the low to mid 50’s

SATURDAY – light rain, sprinkles, and showers, possibly mixing with wet snow at night before ending, low in the low to mid 40’s, high in the upper 40’s to low 50’s

SUNDAY – mostly sunny, low in the mid 30’s, high in the mid 40’s

MONDAY – mostly sunny, low in the low to mid 30’s, high in the low 50’s

TUESDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a shower in the morning, low in the low to mid 40’s, high in the upper 50’s to low 60’s

WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of showers in the afternoon and at night, low in the upper 40’s, high in the low 60’s

NEXT THURSDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a shower, low in the low 40’s, high in the low to mid 50’s

NEXT FRIDAY – variably cloudy, low in the mid to upper 30’s, high in the mid to upper 50’s

NEXT SATURDAY – variably cloudy, low in the mid to upper 40’s, high in the mid 50’s

NEXT SUNDAY – variably cloudy, low in the low to mid 30’s, high in the low to mid 40’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the low to mid 40’s

NEXT TUESDAY – mostly sunny, low in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, high in the mid to upper 40’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of a shower, low in the low to mid 40’s, high in the low 50’s

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

No changes from this morning.

It still looks as if an intense Nor'easter will form off the Middle Atlantic Coast but it continues to look as if this storm will remain south and east of our area for the most part, leaving us with just some showers on Saturday.

Interestingly, this storm will be developing so far to the south that it is possible that the mountains of the Southern Appalachians in Tennessee and North Carolina may get significant snow from this storm, along with possibly parts of Northern New England.

We may get lucky this time, although things can change, so be sure to check back for updates in the morning, just in case.

Those of you who have been following me for years know that it is not at all uncommon for last minute surprises, so stay tuned.

If anything changes you know you will hear it here first.

Have a nice evening.

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Wednesday, October 29, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

No doubt about it, a strong Nor’easter is likely to develop off the Middle Atlantic and New Jersey Coast on Saturday as a strong upper level low pressure area (a piece of the Polar Vortex) drops down from Canada and reaches the North Carolina Coast near Cape Hatteras. 

As the piece of the Polar Vortex reaches the coast and the warm waters and Gulf Stream just off shore, explosive cyclogenesis is likely to occur on Saturday evening, resulting in a Nor’easter that will intensify as if moves to the North and East. 

The question is how close will this storm come to our area?  With the upper level low pressure area developing that far to the south and east, it may keep the majority of precipitation just far enough to our south and east so that we receive only light rain or showers on Saturday with highs in the mid 40’s in Northern New Jersey.  The storm could then pull away before the cold air has a chance to move in to the area overnight on Saturday, meaning only a chance of the rain mixing with wet snow before ending late on Saturday night, but with many areas not seeing any snow at all.

If however the upper level low does not push that far to the south and comes through Maryland instead of North Carolina and Virginia, then the storm would develop closer to us, resulting in more rain and cooler temperatures, with a greater chance for more snow, especially on Saturday night.  This solution does not look the most likely to occur at the moment however. 

This situation needs to be watched closely as it is still 3 days away and things can change, but at the moment Northern New Jersey looks as if it may luck out with only some light rain and showers on Saturday, with areas further south and east having a chance of heavier rain, and Northern New England looking at the possibility of significant snowfall accumulations.

Anyway, we will have a chance of some showers today as the cold front pushes through, followed by nice weather for Thursday and increasing cloudiness on Friday prior to the storm on Saturday. 

After the storm passes we will have clearing on Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 40’s, followed by lows on Monday morning in the mid to upper 20’s. 

We will then have more seasonal temperatures and weather for the following week with highs mainly in the 50’s.

Check back, we need to keep a close eye on the Saturday storm, but at the moment it looks as if we may get lucky this time.

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Wednesday, October 29, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – showers likely, ending tonight, high in the low 60’s

TOMORROW – mostly sunny, low in the upper 30’s to low 40’s, high in the mid 50’s

FRIDAY – increasing cloudiness, low in the mid to upper 30’s, high in the low 50’s

SATURDAY – rain likely, possibly mixing with wet snow late at night before ending, temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s

SUNDAY – variably cloudy in the morning, mostly sunny in the afternoon, low in the mid 30’s, high in the low to mid 40’s

MONDAY – mostly sunny, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the upper 40’s

TUESDAY – mostly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon, low around 30, high in the mid 50’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – chance of a shower early in the morning, then variably cloudy, low in the low 40’s, high in the low 50’s

NEXT THURSDAY – variably cloudy, low in the upper 30’s to low 40’s, high in the mid to upper 50’s

NEXT FRIDAY – mostly sunny, low in the mid to upper 30’s, high in the mid 50’s

NEXT SATURDAY – mostly sunny, low in the upper 30’s, high in the mid 50’s

NEXT SUNDAY – variably cloudy, chance of showers, low in the mid 50’s, high in the low 60’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, temperatures in the mid 50’s all day

NEXT TUESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of showers, low in the low 40’s, high in the mid 50’s

Quick Update

There will be a Nor’easter off the New Jersey Coast on Saturday.   It appears however that it will take the storm some time to strengthen and it may develop just far enough to our south and east to allow temperatures to remain in the mid 40’s on Saturday with only showers and some light rain. 

As the Nor’easter starts to intensify on Saturday night any leftover rain would likely gradually mix with or change to a bit of wet snow before ending early on Sunday morning with little or no accumulation in Northern New Jersey.

Things can change, but at the moment this appears to be the most likely outcome. 

Full forecast shortly.