Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Wednesday, December 7, 2016 - Morning Weather Discussion

Colder and another storm by the end of the weekend…

Snowfall amounts ranged from basically a coating to up to 3 inches in far Northwestern NJ, and from 1 to over 5 inches in the highest elevations of Northeastern PA. Click here to see a few of the snowfall totals from the National Weather Service office in Mt. Holly, NJ.

It will be nice today through Saturday, with just a slight chance of a snow shower Friday and Saturday as a touch of moisture could works its way into parts of our area off the Great Lakes. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s, falling to the 30’s Friday and the upper 20’s to mid 30’s Saturday.

Sunday clouds will increase as a storm system approaches from the west, with snow developing north of roughly Rt. 78, and rain roughly south of Rt. 78 and on Long Island. Highs will be in the 30’s inland and in the low 40’s along the coast.

Monday the snow could possibly change to rain north of roughly Rt. 78 and the rain will continue south of Rt. 78 and on Long Island. Highs will be in the 30’s roughly north of Rt. 78 and in the 40’s roughly south of Rt. 78 and on Long Island.

Tuesday will then be variably cloudy with a slight chance of a snow shower. Highs will range from the mid 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 40’s in Central NJ.

Next Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will range from the mid 20’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 30’s along the coast.

Next Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper teens to mid 20’s.

Next Friday there will be increasing cloudiness late in the day as a storm system approaches from the west. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.

Next Saturday there will be a chance of rain or snow as a storm system could form along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s inland and in the upper 30’s along the coast and on Long Island.

Next Sunday there will be a chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, then clearing. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Next Monday and Tuesday then look nice with highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s next Monday and the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Tuesday.

Have a fantastic day!

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Wednesday, December 7, 2016 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – variably cloudy, highs from the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 40’s in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island

TOMORROW – mostly sunny, lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, highs from the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 40’s in Central NJ

FRIDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the 20’s inland and the low 30’s along the coast, highs in the 30’s

SATURDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s along the coast, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

SUNDAY – increasing cloudiness, snow developing north of roughly Rt. 78 and rain roughly south of Rt. 78 and on Long Island, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s along the coast, highs in the 30’s inland and in the low 40’s along the coast

MONDAY – snow possibly changing to rain in the morning north of Rt. 78, and rain continuing south of Rt. 78 and on Long Island, lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s inland and in the upper 30’s along the coast, highs in the 30’s roughly north of Rt. 78 and in the 40’s roughly south of Rt. 78 and on Long Island

TUESDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s inland and in the mid 30’s along the coast, highs from the mid 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 40’s in Central NJ

NEXT WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers, lows in the in the upper teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs from the mid 20’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 30’s along the coast

NEXT THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the teens inland and the low to mid 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the upper teens to mid 20’s

NEXT FRIDAY – increasing cloudiness late in the day, lows in the upper single digits and teens inland and the low to mid 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s

NEXT SATURDAY – chance of rain or snow, lows in the teens to low 20’s inland and in the mid to upper 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s inland and in the upper 30’s along the coast and on Long Island

NEXT SUNDAY – chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, then clearing, lows in the 20’s inland and in the low to mid 30’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the teens to low 20’s inland and in the mid to upper 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s

NEXT TUESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the teens to low 20’s inland and in the mid 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Sleet

I guess I have to add sleet to the forecast.  I didn't see this coming at all.  I checked all the projected profiles of the atmosphere and didn't see this possibility, but it is sleeting here, even though it is currently 39 degrees. So, now we need to watch for sleet, causing ice accumulation and icy conditions on some of the roadways.  Be careful if driving this evening...

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Tuesday, December 6, 2016 - Evening Weather Discussion

Significant snow in Northeastern PA, but for the rest of us…

A Nor’easter is forming near the Southern Delmarva Peninsula tonight. This storm will head eastward and out to sea early tomorrow. This will cause rain and snow to develop in our area this evening and it will continue into early tomorrow morning. The precipitation will fall mainly as snow in Northeastern PA, and a mixture of rain and snow will fall in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, with rain south and east of there.

Total projected snowfall amounts are as follows:

Coating to an inch or two possible, with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations:  East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Northern Fairfield County, CT

1 to 3 inches possible:  extreme Western Orange County, NY

1 to 5 inches possible:  Northeastern PA

Well, that is my best guess, but one degree difference in temperature will make a huge difference in the ultimate outcome. It also appears that higher elevations have the potential to get much higher amounts than the valleys. It is also possible that any snow that falls in many parts of East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, most of Southeastern NY State, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, may melt before accumulating, meaning that some, if not many areas in these places could end up with zero snow accumulation. On the other hand, if the data is off by only one degree, there could be significant accumulations in many of these same locations. BUT I will go with what I have above as my best guess based on all the available information at this moment in time. Let’s see how it works out.

Moving forward, things will clear out tomorrow and then it will get much colder starting Friday, with lows possibly dropping to the teens in the morning this coming weekend.

The next chance of rain or snow will be Sunday night into Tuesday, with a chance of snow developing Sunday night, then possibly changing to rain Monday into Tuesday.

Then the next potential storm will be next Saturday with a chance of rain or snow once again.

Have a wonderful evening and let’s see what happens in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, and those of you in Northeastern PA, enjoy your snow!

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Final Call Coming Shortly on Snowfall Amounts for Tonight...

My final call will be coming up shortly on snowfall amounts for the storm tonight.  This one is a tough one....

I will let you know as soon as I have made my final decision....

Tuesday, December 6, 2016 - Morning Weather Discussion

More snow for some tonight, then COLD later in the week…

Clouds will increase today as a Nor’easter forms near the Southern Delmarva Peninsula tonight. This storm will then head eastward and out to sea tomorrow morning. This will cause precipitation to develop tonight throughout the Allentown and New York City Metropolitan areas. The precipitation will fall as rain, or mainly rain in most areas outside of Northeastern PA, and possible far Northern Sussex County, NJ, and far Western Orange County, NY.  However, there may be some snow into East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, as well. The precipitation will end early tomorrow morning.

My best guess right now for snowfall accumulations is as follows:

Coating to an inch:  East Central PA, Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties in NY

Coating to an inch or two:  Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT

1-3 inches:  far northwestern Sussex County, NJ, and far Western Orange County, NY

1-4 inches:  Northeastern PA

It will then be variably cloudy Thursday through Saturday with a slight chance of a snow shower Friday and Saturday. It will also get colder, with highs only from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s Saturday and lows possibly as low as the mid teens in Northeastern PA.

Sunday, we will have increasing cloudiness in the afternoon with a chance of rain or snow at night as a storm system approaches from the west. Lows could drop as low as the upper single digits Sunday morning in Northeastern PA, with highs in the 30’s throughout the area.

Monday into next Tuesday morning we will have a chance of rain or snow with highs ranging from the upper 30’s to mid 50’s Monday.

Next Wednesday we will have variably cloudy skies with a chance of a rain or snow shower as a cold front approaches, followed by a nice day next Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the 40’s next Wednesday, but will then drop to the 20’s and low 30’s next Thursday.

Next Friday we will have a chance of rain or snow developing and continuing into next Saturday. Highs will be mainly around 30, to the low 30’s.

Next Sunday and Monday then look nice with highs mainly in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Have a fantastic day!

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Tuesday, December 6, 2016 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – increasing cloudiness this afternoon, rain and snow developing tonight, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

TOMORROW – rain and snow ending early in the morning, then clearing, possible accumulations of a dusting to an inch in East Central PA, Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties in NY, a dusting to an inch or two in Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, 1-3 inches in far northwestern Sussex County, NJ, and far Western Orange County, NY, and 1-4 inches in Northeastern PA, lows from the low to mid 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 40’s in Central NJ, HIGHS will be from the upper 30's to the mid 40's

THURSDAY – variably cloudy, lows from the mid 20’s to low 30’s inland and the mid 30’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs from the low to mid 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 40’s in Central NJ

FRIDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s to low 30’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 30’s in Central NJ

SATURDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower, lows from the mid teens in Northeastern PA to the mid 20’s along the coast, highs from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 30’s in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island

SUNDAY – increasing cloudiness in the afternoon, chance of rain or snow at night, lows from the upper single digits to low teens in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 20’s along the coast, highs in the 30’s

MONDAY – chance of rain or snow, lows in the 30’s inland and in the low to mid 40’s along the coast, highs from the upper 30’s in Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, to the mid 50’s in Central NJ

NEXT TUESDAY – chance of rain or snow ending early in the morning, then clearing, lows in the low to mid 30’s, highs from the low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low 40’s in Central NJ

NEXT WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of a rain or snow shower, lows in the teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s along the coast, highs from the upper 30’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 40’s in Central NJ and on Long Island

NEXT THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper single digits to low 20’s inland and in the mid 20’s along the coast, highs in the 20’s to low 30’s

NEXT FRIDAY – chance of rain or snow developing, lows in the teens to low 20’s inland and in the mid 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s

NEXT SATURDAY – chance of rain or snow, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s to low 30’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

NEXT SUNDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s inland and in the upper 20’s along the coast and on Long Island, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the teens to low 20’s inland and in the mid 20’s along the coast and on Long island, highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s

Monday, December 5, 2016

Monday, December 5, 2016 - Evening Weather Discussion

More snow tomorrow night for some...

Well, there will be more snow for some of us tomorrow night, but honestly, the differences in the various model data this evening is quite dramatic for tomorrow night.

Tomorrow evening a Nor'easter will develop near the Southern Delmarva peninsula and will then head due east and out to sea Wednesday morning. Precipitation will move into our area tomorrow evening and continue into the early morning hours Wednesday. Right now it looks as if surface temperatures will be just cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow in Northeastern PA, parts of East Central PA, parts of far Northwestern NJ, parts of Southeastern NY State and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, and possibly a little into Northeastern NJ.

The big question is how much?  And this is truly a very difficult one to answer at this moment in time. As I said before, the differences in the data are quite substantial, especially in Northwestern NJ.

This could be anything from a nuisance storm affecting only Northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and Northern Fairfield County, CT, to a more significant snowstorm, with significant snowfall amounts in Northeastern PA, parts of East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State (especially Orange and Putnam Counties), and Northern Fairfield County, CT.

Honestly, the only sure bet right now for some snow is probably Northeastern PA, far Northern Sussex County NJ, and far Western Orange County, as much of the moisture will head in that direction. However, there remains a very real possibility of a significant snowstorm for most of the same people that had the snow this morning. So, let's just wait and see what the data shows tomorrow morning.

Some of the computer models that have done very well recently with the snowstorms in our area, have a very significant snowstorm tomorrow night for Northeastern PA, parts of East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, most of Southeastern NY State, and for Northern Fairfield County, CT, with some incredible snowfall amounts in Northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, and Western Orange County, NY, but I just don't buy it right now, however, it is not impossible. It is just as likely most of us get only rain, as this, but honestly and truly, I am not sure.

Right now, if I had to make a guess, it would be 1-4 inches for Northeastern PA and far Western Orange County, NY, with a dusting to an inch possible in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, the rest of Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT.  BUT we will just have to wait and see.

Moving beyond that, it will clear out and get cold starting Friday, with the next chance of a storm being next Tuesday or Wednesday and then again next Sunday.

Please join me in the morning for the latest information as to whether we are dealing with a significant snowstorm tomorrow night for some of us or just a bit of snow and rain.

Have a wonderful evening...

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