Friday, February 5, 2016

Friday, February 5, 2016 - Evening Weather Discussion

A foot of snow today on Long Island. Incredible. A monster storm will be off the coast on Monday and another storm on Tuesday...

There was incredibly a foot of snow today on Long Island and many 6 inch totals in Central New Jersey. The majority of the storm today worked out how I expected, but the western edge was a bit less than I thought. It is the edges of these storms that are so hard to predict.

Click here to view the snowfall totals for Southeastern NY, Northeastern NJ, NYC, and Long Island.

Click here to view the snowfall totals for the rest of NJ and Eastern PA.

Anyway, moving forward, a MONSTER Nor'easter will form off the South Carolina Coast on Sunday and will likely bring areas of Coastal South Carolina up to 6 inches of snow, which is incredible. This storm will then turn northeastward and should stay far enough off shore to keep the rest of us safe, with the possible exclusion of Southeastern New England and possibly the eastern end of Long Island. However, I have seen some signs in some data this evening that this storm could possibly move much further west and come right up the coast. A track right up the coast is quite unlikely at the moment, but remains a possibility, especially with some data that came through a few hours ago. So, be sure to check back for updates. This storm will be at its closest point to us on Sunday night into Monday.

After this storm passes an upper level disturbance will approach the Middle Atlantic area Monday night and Tuesday. This will likely cause another Nor'easter to develop but the location of development is still in question. It is possible that it could develop well off shore, giving us just some snow showers, while other data shows a possible blizzard with this storm.

So, basically anything is on the table right now in my opinion and you should be checking back here for the latest information.

After these storms pass another disturbance will approach next Friday night into Saturday with a chance of a bit of snow for us, followed by a chance of another big snowstorm next Monday and Tuesday.

“Weather on the Edge", by Dr. Edge

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Quick Update

The snow is ending in Western sections now but it will continue to snow hard in East Central NJ and Long Island for a few more hours.

As far as the monster Nor'easter Sunday and Monday. The short-range American model just brought this storm closer to the coast by hundreds of miles.  It now would bring heavy snow to the Coastal Carolinas, and it has some snow reaching the NJ Coast, Long Island and Southeastern New England on Sunday night into Monday . One more shift like that and we would have a massive blizzard from the Carolinas to New England on Monday. That is UNLIKELY but not impossible.  I will be watching it closely and yes, there still is a potential Nor'easter for Monday night and Tuesday as well.

Be sure to check back for updates.

Picture of Snow Near Asbury Park, NJ

Near Asbury Park, courtesy mom.


Friday, February 5, 2016 - Morning Weather Discussion

We got our surprise snowstorm today, now what about early next week?

Well, we got our surprise snowstorm today as the storm developed along the cold front situated just off shore and moved a bit further west than it had looked previously. The snow will end in the late morning or early afternoon with total accumulations in East Central and Northeastern PA - a dusting to an inch, Western Warren and Sussex Counties in NJ and Western Orange County in NY - a dusting to 1-2 inches, the rest of Northern NJ and Southeastern NY State, including NYC - 2-4 inches, Central NJ - 2-6 inches, Long Island - 4-8 inches, highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Tomorrow should then be quite nice with highs around 40.

Things get extremely interesting on Sunday as a massive and very intense Nor’easter will form off the coast of the Carolinas. This storm may actually end up bringing significant snow to parts of Eastern South and North Carolina on Sunday. This storm will then move northeastward, most likely off the coast, keeping us dry through the day on Monday. However, there remains a slight chance that this storm could track closer to the coast, so this leaves us with a slight chance of snow developing Sunday night and continuing into the day on Monday. This storm will be very intense so hopefully it stays out to sea. Due to the intensity of this storm, there will still be a decent chance of coastal flooding with this storm, even if it does remain off shore. Highs should be in the low to mid 40’s on Sunday.

After this storm passes, a strong upper level disturbance will then approach the Middle Atlantic Coast on Monday night. This will likely cause a Nor’easter to develop along the Middle Atlantic Coast Monday night into Tuesday. Where exactly this storm develops will determine how much if any snow we get Monday night into Tuesday. I will be watching this closely. Highs should be in the mid 30’s Monday and the low to mid 30’s Tuesday.

Then Wednesday we will have a chance of some lingering snow showers with highs in the mid 30’s.

Thursday should be mostly sunny but cold with highs around 30.

Next Friday will be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers at night as a disturbance approaches our area. Highs should be in the low to mid 30’s.

Next Saturday should be mostly sunny with highs only in the mid to upper 20’s.

Next Sunday a storm will approach from the west, giving us a chance of snow developing at night and highs only in the low to mid 20’s as the Polar Vortex will be making a visit to our area.

Next Monday and Tuesday there will be a chance of snow as a storm may be nearby. Lows will drop to the low to mid teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s.

Next Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

“Weather on the Edge", by Dr. Edge

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org

Friday, February 5, 2016 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – snow ending in the late morning or early afternoon with total accumulations in East Central and Northeastern PA - a dusting to an inch, Western Warren and Sussex Counties in NJ and Western Orange County in NY - a dusting to 1-2 inches, the rest of Northern NJ and Southeastern NY State, including NYC - 2-4 inches, Central NJ - 2-6 inches, Long Island - 4-8 inches, highs in the mid to upper 30’s

TOMORROW – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s, highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s

SUNDAY – increasing cloudiness, slight chance of snow developing at night, lows in the mid 20’s, highs in the low to mid 40’s

MONDAY – slight chance of snow during the day, and a chance of snow at night, lows in the mid to upper 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s

TUESDAY – chance of snow, lows in the mid 20’s, highs in the low to mid 30’s

WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers, lows in the mid 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s

THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper teens to low 20’s, highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s

NEXT FRIDAY – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers at night, lows in the mid to upper teens, highs in the low to mid 30’s

NEXT SATURDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid to upper teens, highs in the mid to upper 20’s

NEXT SUNDAY – increasing cloudiness, chance of snow developing at night, lows in the mid to upper teens, highs in the low to mid 20’s

NEXT MONDAY – chance of snow, lows in the low to mid teens, highs in the low to mid 30’s

NEXT TUESDAY – chance of snow, lows in the upper teens to low 20’s, highs in the low to mid 30’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the low to mid 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s

NEXT THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the low to mid 20’s, highs in the mid to upper 30’s

Latest Data

Based on the latest data I will tweak the forecast amounts a touch.

East Central and Northeastern PA - a dusting to an inch

Western Warren and Sussex Counties in NJ and Western Orange County in NY - a dusting to 1-2 inches

The rest of Northern NJ and Southeastern NY State - 2-4 inches

Central NJ - 2-6 inches

Long Island - 4-8 inches

Quick Morning Update

Everything remains pretty much on track from my discussion last night.

The snow should start to accumulate in most locations around 6 am.

The western fringe is the only area right now that looks as if it may need to be cut back a bit on accumulations with only a dusting to a half of an inch or possibly an inch in Northeast and East Central Pennsylvania and a dusting to an in or two possible in the western half of Sussex and Warren Counties as these areas will be on the edge of the precipitation boundary.

Central and Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Long Island look to get hit the hardest with 2-6 inches of snow and possibly up to 8 inches in parts of Central NJ and on Long Island.

We shall see.

More later with the look at the next 2 weeks and the Morning Weather Discussion.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Quick Evening Update

I have nothing else to add to the earlier discussion at this point. We will just have to wake up in the morning and see how it goes. I will provide an update by 4 am.  Have a wonderful evening...