Saturday, December 14, 2019

Saturday, December 14, 2019 - Morning Weather Discussion

Next up – snow and ice developing Monday afternoon and evening and continuing into Tuesday…

Today will be cloudy, with showers likely as the storm system slowly departs our area. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s, but with some upper 50’s in East Central NJ.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early in the morning in Northeastern PA, then it will be variably cloudy with a chance of flurries. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Monday, a disturbance will approach from the west, causing clouds to increase, with snow developing in East Central PA and Central NJ between about 1-2 pm in No Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Western Long Island between about 2 pm and 4 pm, and in Southeastern NY State, Eastern Long Island and Fairfield County, CT, between about 4 pm and 6 pm, then changing to freezing rain in West Central NJ and rain in East Central NJ between about 5 pm and 8 pm, to freezing rain in East Central PA between about 7 pm and 10 pm, to freezing rain in NYC and on Long Island between about 7 pm and 10 pm, changing to freezing rain in Northern NJ between about 7 pm and midnight from south to north, in Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County CT, between about 10 pm and 1 am, and in Northeastern PA between about 2 am Tuesday morning, freezing rain changing to rain on Long Island between about 10 pm and midnight, in West Central NJ and NYC between about 10 pm and 1 am lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.  Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, except the upper 30’s to low 40’s along the NJ Coast at night.

Tuesday, the freezing rain will change to rain in far Northeastern NJ near the Hudson River and in Southern Westchester County NY by around 4 am, in East Central PA and the rest of Northeastern NJ by around 8 am, in southern portions of Northwestern NJ between about 8 am and 11 am, in Northeastern PA, far Northwestern Nj, the rest of Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, between about 11 am and 1 pm, although parts of Northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, may never get above freezing before the precipitation ends in the late afternoon evening. Lows will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

First guess on total possible snowfall accumulations:

Coating to an inch or two possible:  Central NJ, NYC, Long Island

 1-3 inches possible:  East Central PA, Northern NJ, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY

 2-4 inches possible:  Northeastern PA, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT

First guess on total possible ice accumulations:

A trace to a quarter of an inch:  East Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, and Long Island

A quarter to a half of an inch:  East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT


Below is the latest snowfall map from the European ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions), courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. This is what my snowfall forecast above is based upon.


 Below is the latest snowfall map from the main European model, courtesy WeatherBell analytics. (We will have to keep an eye on this, as if the model is currently correct, my snowfall estimates would have to increase, but for now I am going with the ensemble mean.


And below is the latest freezing rain map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.


Wednesday will be variably cloudy with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

Thursday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow flurry in the morning, with snow flurries or snow squalls possible in Northeastern PA, as a some Lake Effect moisture may reach our area, then clearing. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.

Friday through next Thursday, December 26th, are then currently looking nice with highs in the low to mid 30’s Friday, the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Saturday, the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Sunday through Christmas Day, the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday, and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Friday.

Have a fantastic day!

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, I am a licensed real estate broker in NJ and I would be happy to assist you. Please contact me at edgeweather2@gmail.com

Send weather related photos or videos to edgeweather2@gmail.com

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Saturday, December 14, 2019 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks


TODAY – cloudy, showers likely, highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s, but with some upper 50’s in East Central NJ

TOMORROW – variably cloudy, chance of snow showers early in the morning in Northeastern PA, then variably cloudy with a chance of flurries, lows in the mid 30’s to low 40’s, highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s

MONDAY – increasing cloudiness, snow developing in East Central PA and Central NJ between about 1-2 pm in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Western Long Island between about 2 pm and 4 pm, and in Southeastern NY State, Eastern Long Island and Fairfield County, CT, between about 4 pm and 6 pm, then changing to freezing rain in West Central NJ and rain in East Central NJ between about 5 pm and 8 pm, to freezing rain in East Central PA between about 7 pm and 10 pm, to freezing rain in NYC and on Long Island between about 7 pm and 10 pm, changing to freezing rain in Northern NJ between about 7 pm and midnight from south to north, in Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County CT, between about 10 pm and 1 am, and in Northeastern PA between about 2 am Tuesday morning, freezing rain changing to rain on Long Island between about 10 pm and midnight, in West Central NJ and NYC between about 10 pm and 1 am lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs will be in the upper 20's to mid 30's, except for in the upper 30's to low 40's along the NJ 

TUESDAY – freezing rain changing to rain in far Northeastern NJ near the Hudson River and in Southern Westchester County NY by around 4 am, in East Central PA and the rest of Northeastern NJ by around 8 am, in southern portions of Northwestern NJ between about 8 am and 11 am, in Northeastern PA, far Northwestern Nj, the rest of Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, between about 11 am and 1 pm, although parts of Northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, may never get above freezing before the precipitation ends in the late afternoon evening, lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

First guess on total possible snowfall accumulations:

Coating to an inch or two possible:  Central NJ, NYC, Long Island

1-3 inches possible:  East Central PA, Northern NJ, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY

2-4 inches possible:  Northeastern PA, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT

First guess on total possible ice accumulations:

A trace to a quarter of an inch:  East Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, and Long Island

A quarter to a half of an inch:  East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT

WEDNESDAY – variably cloudy, lows in the 20’s, highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s

THURSDAY – variably cloudy, chance of a snow flurry in the morning, with snow flurries or snow squalls possible in Northeastern PA, then clearing, lows in the teens to low 20’s, highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s

FRIDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the low to mid 30’s

NEXT SATURDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT SUNDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

CHRISTMAS EVE – mostly sunny, lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

CHRISTMAS DAY – variably cloudy, lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – variably cloudy, lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT FRIDAY – variably cloudy, chance of a snow shower, lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s


If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, I am a licensed real estate broker in NJ and I would be happy to assist you. Please contact me at edgeweather2@gmail.com

Send weather related photos or videos to edgeweather2@gmail.com

Click here for the Edge Weather app in the Apple App Store. 

Click here for the Edge Weather app in the Google Play Store.

Or search the Apple App Store or Google Play Store for Edgeweather.

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or Facebook.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org