Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Tuesday, January 16, 2018 - Morning Weather Discussion

Significant Snowstorm for Some of Us…

I have been watching this storm for a while. The data was indicating the possibility of a significant snowstorm in parts of our area for today from at least a week ago, then the data dropped it, then it came right back. Some parts of our area will indeed be getting a significant snowstorm tonight into tomorrow, but it will be a fine line due to temperatures being just a bit too warm for snow in parts of our area…

There will be a chance of a snow flurry or shower early this morning and then light snow/snow showers/flurries developing between about 7 am and 10 am in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, then between about 1 pm and 6 pm in Northeastern NJ, the rest of Southeastern NY state and Fairfield County, CT, and rain or snow developing between about 5 pm and 7 pm in Central NJ, NYC and on Western Long Island, and between 7 pm and 9 pm on Eastern Long Island, highs in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Tomorrow the snow will end between about 1 pm and 3 pm in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 3 pm and 5 pm in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, about 5 pm and 7 pm in Northeastern NJ and the rest of Southeastern NY State, and snow ending in Fairfield County, CT and rain or snow ending between about 6 pm and 9 pm in Central NJ and on Long Island. Lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s and holding steady.

Total possible accumulations as follows:

Coating possible: Southeastern and Coastal NJ and Eastern Long Island

Coating to 1-2 inches possible:  Southwestern NJ, Mercer, Middlesex, Union, and Hudson Counties in NJ, and New York City

1-4 inches possible:  Somerset, Essex, Southeastern Bergen in NJ, and Southern Westchester County, NY

2-5 inches possible: Hunterdon, Southeastern Morris, Southern Passaic, Central Bergen, Southeastern Rockland, Central Westchester, Southern Fairfield County, CT

3-7 inches possible:  East Central PA, Southern Warren, Central Morris, Central Passaic, Northwestern Bergen, Northwestern Rockland, Northern Westchester, Central Fairfield County, CT

4-8 inches possible:  Northern Warren and Northwestern Morris Counties in NJ

5-9 inches possible: Northeastern PA, Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties in NJ

5-10 inches possible:  Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Northern Fairfield County, CT


Thursday through Sunday will then be nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Thursday, the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Friday, the 40’s to low 50’s Saturday, and the upper 30’s and 40’s Sunday.

Monday there will be a chance of a shower in the morning, then rain will develop in the afternoon and continue into the night, possibly heavy at times as a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s and 40’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday will then be nice with highs in the 40’s to low 50’s next Tuesday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday there will then be a chance of rain or snow as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Friday will then be nice with highs in the 30’s.

Next Saturday and Sunday there will then be a chance of snow as a Nor’easter may develop along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Next Monday then looks nice with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Have a fantastic day and please join me this afternoon or evening for the latest information…

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Tuesday, January 16, 2018 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – chance of a snow flurry or shower early this morning and then light snow/snow showers/flurries developing between about 7 am and 10 am in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, then between about 1 pm and 6 pm in Northeastern NJ, the rest of Southeastern NY state and Fairfield County, CT, and rain or snow developing between about 5 pm and 7 pm in Central NJ, NYC and on Western Long Island, and between 7 pm and 9 pm on Eastern Long Island, highs in the 30’s to low 40’s

TOMORROW – snow ending between about 1 pm and 3 pm in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 3 pm and 5 pm in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, about 5 pm and 7 pm in Northeastern NJ and the rest of Southeastern NY State, and snow ending in Fairfield County, CT and rain or snow ending between about 6 pm and 9 pm in Central NJ and on Long Island. Lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s and holding steady

Total possible accumulations as follows:

Coating possible: Southeastern and Coastal NJ and Eastern Long Island

Coating to 1-2 inches possible:  Southwestern NJ, Mercer, Middlesex, Union, and Hudson Counties in NJ, and New York City

1-4 inches possible:  Somerset, Essex, Southeastern Bergen in NJ, and Southern Westchester County, NY

2-5 inches possible: Hunterdon, Southeastern Morris, Southern Passaic, Central Bergen, Southeastern Rockland, Central Westchester, Southern Fairfield County, CT

3-7 inches possible:  East Central PA, Southern Warren, Central Morris, Central Passaic, Northwestern Bergen, Northwestern Rockland, Northern Westchester, Central Fairfield County, CT

4-8 inches possible:  Northern Warren and Northwestern Morris Counties in NJ

5-9 inches possible: Northeastern PA, Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties in NJ

5-10 inches possible:  Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Northern Fairfield County, CT

THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid single digits to mid teens, except some upper teens along the coast and on Eastern Long island, highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s

FRIDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s

SATURDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the 40’s to low 50’s

SUNDAY – variably cloudy, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s and 40’s

MONDAY – chance of a shower in the morning, rain developing in the afternoon and continuing into the night, possibly heavy at times, lows in the 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s and 40’s

NEXT TUESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the 30’s to low 40’s, highs in the 40’s to low 50’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – chance of rain or snow, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT FRIDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the 30’s

NEXT SATURDAY – chance of snow, lows in the 20’s, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

NEXT SUNDAY – chance of snow, lows in the 20’s, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

NEXT MONDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s, highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

Projected Snowfall Amounts Increasing in East Central PA and Northwestern NJ

I will be increasing projected snowfall amounts in East Central PA and parts of Northwestern NJ with my Morning Weather Discussion. The disturbance will be developing a bit more along the coast, just as the models showed a week ago. Check back in a bit later.

Monday, January 15, 2018

Monday, January 15, 2018 - Evening Weather Discussion

Significant Snowstorm for Parts of Our Area…

Light snow and snow showers will start tomorrow morning between about 6 am and 9 am in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 7 am and 10 am in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, between about 10 am and 2 pm in Northeastern NJ and Southeastern NY State, between about noon and 4 pm in NYC and Fairfield County, CT, and between about 2 pm and 5 pm in Central and Coastal NJ and Long Island. The precipitation will likely be a mixture of rain and snow, or non-accumulating snow, in parts of Central and especially Coastal NJ and on Long Island. Highs will be in the low 30’s in Northeastern PA, the mid 30’s in Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT, the mid to upper 30’s in East Central PA, the mid 30’s to low 40’s in Northeastern PA, the low 40’s in NYC and on Long Island, and in the low to mid 40’s in Central NJ.

The snow will become steady at night and areas that are receiving rain, could change to snow late at night.

The precipitation will then end between about 7 am and 9 am in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 9 am and noon in Northwestern NJ and West Central NJ, between about noon and 2 pm in East Central and Northeastern NJ, and Orange County, NY, between about 1 pm and 3 pm in the rest of Southeastern NY State, Fairfield County, CT, and on Western Long Island, and between about 3 pm and 6 pm on Eastern Long Island. Highs will be early in the day, in the upper 20’s in Northeastern PA, the low 30’s in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, and Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, the low to mid 30’s in Northeastern NJ, NYC, and Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, the mid 30’s in Central NJ, and the mid 30’s to mid 40’s from west to east on Long Island, with temperatures falling throughout the day.

Total possible accumulations are as follows:

Coating to an inch – Central and Coastal NJ and Long Island

Coating to 1-2 inches – Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, and Hudson Counties in NJ, NYC, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

1-3 inches – Southern Warren, Southern Morris, Essex, and Southeastern Bergen Counties in NJ, and Southern Westchester County in NY

2- 4 inches – Lehigh and Northampton Counties in PA, Central Warren and Morris Counties, Southern Passaic, and Central Bergen Counties in NJ, Southeastern Rockland and Central Westchester Counties in NY, and Central Fairfield County, CT

3-6 inches – Northern Warren, Southern Sussex, Northern Morris, and Northwestern Bergen County in NJ, Central Rockland and Central Westchester Counties in NY, and Central Fairfield County, CT

4-7 inches – Northeastern PA, Northern Sussex and Northwestern Bergen Counties in NJ

4-8 inches – Northern Passaic County, NJ, Western Orange, Northern Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties in NY

5-10 inches – Eastern Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Northern Fairfield County, CT

Thursday through Sunday will then be nice with temperatures gradually warming from the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Thursday, to the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Friday, and the mid 40’s to mid 50’s Saturday and Sunday.

Next Monday clouds will then increase with a chance of rain in the afternoon and at night, possibly heavy at times, as a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Tuesday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday and Friday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers as a disturbance and cold front pass through our area. Highs will be in the 40’s next Thursday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Friday.

Next Saturday there will be a chance of rain or snow as a Nor’easter may form along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the 30’s.

Next Sunday will then be nice with highs in the 30’s.

Have a wonderful evening and please join me in the morning for the latest information…

Download the Edgeweather weather app from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store, search for, "Edgeweather".

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

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I am Principal of Sussex County Charter School for Technology. Click here to view the school website.

Click here to look at what was on the front page of the New Jersey Herald! 

We have limited seats available in grade 6 for the current school year and are now accepting applications for next school year for grades 6-8. Apply today at www.sussexcharter.org

Monday, January 15, 2018 - Morning Weather Discussion

Snow for many of us tomorrow...

Today will be variably cloudy with a chance of a flurry along the coast. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.

Tomorrow light snow will develop between about 6 am and 8 am in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 8 am and 10 am in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, between about 9 am and midday in Central and Northeastern NJ and the rest of Southeastern NY State, between about noon and 3 pm in NYC and Fairfield County, CT, and between about 2 pm and 6 pm along the coast and on Long Island. The precipitation could be rain, or non-accumulating snow, in parts of Central NJ (especially along the coast), in NYC, and on Long Island). Lows will be in the 20’s inland and the low 30’s along the NJ Coast, with highs in the low to mid 30’s in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, and in the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Central NJ.

Wednesday precipitation ending in East Central and Northeastern PA between about 9 am and noon in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 10 am and 1 pm in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, between about 1 pm and 4 pm in Northeastern NJ and the rest of Southeastern NY State, between about 4 pm and 7 pm in NYC and Fairfield County, CT, and between about 7 pm and 10 pm in Central NJ and on Long Island.  Lows will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, except possibly the mid 30’s along the coast and on Eastern Long Island, highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA, the low to mid 30’s in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, and the mid to upper 30’s in Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, on Long Island, and in Southern Fairfield County, CT.

Total possible accumulations as follows:

Coating to an inch – Coastal NJ and Long Island

Coating to an inch or two – Central NJ and NYC

1-4 inches – East Central PA, Northeastern NJ, Southern Westchester County, NY, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

2-6 inches – Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Rockland/Northern Westchester Counties in NY and Northern Fairfield County, CT

3-8 inches – Orange and Putnam Counties in NY

Thursday through Sunday will then be nice with gradually warming temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Thursday, the 30’s to low 40’s Friday, the mid 40’s to low 50’s Saturday, and the 50’s Sunday.

Next Monday clouds will increase in the morning with a chance of rain in the afternoon and at night as a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 50’s to low 60’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Tuesday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday and Friday there will then be a chance of rain or snow showers as a disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Friday.

Next Saturday into Sunday morning there will be a chance of rain or snow, ending Sunday morning. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Saturday and the 30’s next Sunday.

Check back this afternoon or evening for the latest information…

Have a fantastic day!

Download the Edgeweather weather app from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store, search for, "Edgeweather".

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org

I am Principal of Sussex County Charter School for Technology. Click here to view the school website.

Click here to look at what was on the front page of the New Jersey Herald! 

We have limited seats available in grade 6 for the current school year and are now accepting applications for next school year for grades 6-8. Apply today at www.sussexcharter.org

Monday, January 15, 2018 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks

TODAY – variably cloudy, chance of a flurry along the coast, highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s

TOMORROW – light snow developing between about 6 am and 8 am in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 8 am and 10 am in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, between about 9 am and midday in Central and Northeastern NJ and the rest of Southeastern NY State, between about noon and 3 pm in NYC and Fairfield County, CT, and between about 2 pm and 6 pm along the coast and on Long Island. The precipitation could be rain, or non-accumulating snow, in parts of Central NJ (especially along the coast), in NYC, and on Long Island). Lows in the 20’s inland and the low 30’s along the NJ Coast, highs in the low to mid 30’s in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, and in the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Central NJ

WEDNESDAY – precipitation ending in East Central and Northeastern PA between about 9 am and noon in East Central and Northeastern PA, between about 10 am and 1 pm in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, between about 1 pm and 4 pm in Northeastern NJ and the rest of Southeastern NY State, between about 4 pm and 7 pm in NYC and Fairfield County, CT, and between about 7 pm and 10 pm in Central NJ and on Long Island.  Lows will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, except possibly the mid 30’s along the coast and on Eastern Long Island, highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA, the low to mid 30’s in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, and the mid to upper 30’s in Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, on Long Island, and in Southern Fairfield County, CT

Total possible accumulations as follows:

Coating to an inch – Coastal NJ and Long Island

Coating to an inch or two – Central NJ and NYC

1-4 inches – East Central PA, Northeastern NJ, Southern Westchester County, NY, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

2-6 inches – Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Rockland/Northern Westchester Counties in NY and Northern Fairfield County, CT

3-8 inches – Orange and Putnam Counties in NY


THURSDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid single digits to upper teens, highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s

FRIDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s, highs in the 30’s to low 40’s

SATURDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the upper teens to upper 20’s, highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s

SUNDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid to upper 30’s, highs in the 50’s

NEXT MONDAY – increasing cloudiness in the morning, chance of rain in the afternoon and at night, possibly heavy at times, lows in the 30’s, highs in the 50’s to low 60’s

NEXT TUESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT WEDNESDAY – mostly sunny, lows in the mid to upper 20’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT THURSDAY – chance of rain or snow showers, lows in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s

NEXT FRIDAY – chance of rain or snow showers, lows in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT SATURDAY – chance of rain or snow, lows in the 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s

NEXT SUNDAY – chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, followed by clearing, lows in the 20’s, highs in the 30’s

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Sunday, January 14, 2018 - Evening Weather Discussion

Chances for Significant Snow Increasing…

The data has changed again and is heading back rapidly to what it was looking like a couple of days ago.  I have seen this many times over the years. It seems that valuable data for the weather models is lost in the 3-5 day range. Often the storms are actually handled better when they are 5-7 days out than when they are 3-5 days out. I am guessing this is because the disturbance that is to produce the storm goes from land over Russia where there are at least some weather stations, then cuts across the Siberian Sea where there are few data stations, then cuts back over land in Alaska or Canada where there are once again more weather stations, allowing the models to see the storm development again. So, storm, then no storm, then storm again. Just my best guess. But anyway…

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower on Eastern Long Island. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.

Tuesday clouds will increase with snow developing as a cold front and disturbance approach from the west. The snow will start in the late morning in East Central and Northeastern PA, in the afternoon and early evening in Central and Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Northern Fairfield County, CT, and in the evening in Central NJ, NYC, on Long Island, and in Southern Fairfield County, CT.  Highs will be in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Wednesday into Thursday morning there will be a chance of snow as another disturbance may develop along the cold front over Eastern North Carolina. This storm may then strengthen as it heads northeastward, possibly turning into a Nor’easter. If this storm doesn’t develop, or develops and heads out to sea, the snow would end Wednesday morning. If the storm does develop, and tracks close to the coast, we could have a big snowstorm with snow continuing into Thursday morning. We will have to wait and see. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and Thursday in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.

Currently, the chances for at least some snow in our area have increased to about 90%, of a significant snowstorm is about 60%, and of a very significant snowstorm are about 20%.

Friday through next Sunday will then be nice with highs in the 30’s Friday, the mid to upper 40’s Saturday, and the mid 40’s to low 50’s next Sunday.

Next Monday there will be a chance of rain as a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 50’s to low 60’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Tuesday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday into Friday morning there will be a chance of rain or snow with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Saturday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Please check back for the latest information tomorrow morning…

Have a wonderful evening!

Download the Edgeweather weather app from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store, search for, "Edgeweather".

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org

I am Principal of Sussex County Charter School for Technology. Click here to view the school website.

Click here to look at what was on the front page of the New Jersey Herald! 

We have limited seats available in grade 6 for the current school year and are now accepting applications for next school year for grades 6-8. Apply today at www.sussexcharter.org

Sunday, January 14, 2018 - Morning Weather Discussion

Snow, or no snow, and how much?

It will be mostly sunny today and variably cloudy tomorrow with a chance of a flurry on Long Island. Highs will be in the upper teens to mid 20’s today and the mid 20’s to low 30’s tomorrow.

Tuesday clouds will increase with a chance of rain or snow developing in the afternoon or evening, changing to snow at night as a disturbance and cold front approach from the west. Highs will be in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Wednesday there will be a chance of snow, especially in the morning, as the disturbance may develop some as it nears the NJ Coast. Some snow accumulation is possible. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

The data became a bit more favorable for significant snowfall amounts with the snow Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing from near zero last evening to around 25% in the data this morning. Right now the best guess would be that most areas would see a coating to an inch or two of snow, but there is currently about a 25% chance that parts of our area could see higher amounts, so be sure to check back for updates this afternoon and evening.

Thursday through next Sunday will then be nice with temperatures gradually warming from the mid 20’s to low 30’s Thursday to the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Friday, the 40’s to low 50’s Saturday, and the mid 40’s to mid 50’s next Sunday.

Next Monday and Tuesday there will be a chance of rain, ending Tuesday morning as a disturbance and cold front pass through our area. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s next Monday, and the 30’s next Tuesday.

Next Wednesday and Thursday then look nice with highs in the 30’s next Wednesday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Thursday.

Next Friday and Saturday there will be a chance of rain or snow as an approaching disturbance may turn into a Nor’easter near the NJ Coast. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Have a fantastic day!

Download the Edgeweather weather app from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store, search for, "Edgeweather".

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org

I am Principal of Sussex County Charter School for Technology. Click here to view the school website.

Click here to look at what was on the front page of the New Jersey Herald! 

We have limited seats available in grade 6 for the current school year and are now accepting applications for next school year for grades 6-8. Apply today at www.sussexcharter.org