Post - Storm Reflections and Analysis

Yes, somehow I did manage to forecast yesterday’s storm 2 weeks in advance, no joke. Following this discussion is the first post that I made on the storm potential back on the evening of Monday, October 17th, 2 days after I had already recognized the possibility and spoke about it in private. If you have not already read the post, please do so, I think you will find it very interesting. It does amaze and frustrate me when the National Weather Service and local news cannot predict the storms more than a day in advance, such as they did with this storm. I will never forget watching the news on Thursday morning, 2 days before the storm that I knew was about to happen. In addition, watching ALL the New York news stations fail to mention what was about to happen, and even some of them saying it would be partly cloudy and 52 on Saturday, or that the snow would not accumulate, and so on! The fact that these people are actually paid to produce forecasts like this is simply amazing to me. It is a shame that so many people have to rely upon them to get their weather information. The National Weather Service did not do much better, only issuing a Winter Storm Warning on Friday evening for Northeast New Jersey, bypassing completely issuing the typical Winter Storm Watch that is issued to give some advanced warning of the possibility. I had been talking about this possible storm for 11 days already and had mentioned it every day in my forecast for those 11 days. The storm knocked out power to 3 million people along the East Coast. The most number of people ever losing power in the State of Connecticut at one time, and giving New York City’s Central Park its biggest snowfall total EVER in the month of October, and giving 19 inches of snow to West Milford, New Jersey. It was interesting to watch the NBC National evening news have West Milford, NJ featured on tonight’s national news with their 19-inch total.

Post Storm Reflection - I broke my own record for seeing the potential for a major East Coast Storm, seeing this one 14 days in advance. My previous record was 13 days, which I had done previously several times. My forecast amounts were a general 6-12 inches for most locations, except 3-6 inches in far Eastern sections of Northern New Jersey near the Hudson River, and isolated 12-18 amounts in some locations, and this was amended as the storm was approaching to the fact that some locations, could possibly break through my high total of 12-18 inches into the 18-24 inch range. I specifically mentioned West Milford as one of the locations that would be a candidate to do this, and West Milford did break through this range, managing to accumulate 19 inches, and making the NBC evening national news. One of the other locations that I mentioned was Sparta, NJ, who accumulated 16.8 inches. In addition, Lake Hopatcong measured 17 inches. Most locations did get 6-12 inches, although some locations did get less than the 6-inch minimum, my location included, where I accumulated 5.5 inches. This is not due to the snow not falling in amounts sufficient to produce a minimum of 6 inches, but because the snow was so heavy, it managed to compact the previous snow that had fallen. Here is a snowfall map from the National Weather Service, showing the snowfall totals in our region. In addition, here is a great map from the National Weather Service showing snowfall totals throughout the entire Northeast from the storm. I am happy with my forecast. It was not perfect by any means, but about as close as you are ever going to get. I tried to tell people the potential severity of this storm as I saw it. I think I did a good job of this. Overall, I feel good with the forecast that I made and I hope you do as well. If you feel I did a good job, please tell your friends about my blog. I am not making money from this even though there are ads running on it. The ads just help toward offsetting some of the expenses of obtaining the data to make these forecasts possible for you, although they do not offset all my costs, they do help. Again, if you have not already read my first post on this storm, made on the evening of October 17th, 12 days before the storm, please read it and share it with your friends. I think you will find it interesting. Thank you and have a nice evening. The post I made on the evening of October 17th about this storm potential is below.

First Snowstorm for Northwest NJ next Friday the 28th?

I have not mentioned it yet but for the past three days now the medium-range American model has been noticing the possibility of the first snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey for next Friday the 28th. I wanted to wait to see if a pattern was developing because it is a long way out, now 11 days away, but after the latest run of the Medium-Range American model that just came out, I can no longer hold back. The American model goes out to 16 days and since Saturday (about day 13), it has at one time or other on various model runs produced a Nor’easter for our area. What I look for with situations like this, so far in advance of a storm, is a pattern of behavior by the model. What intrigues me is that it is producing a storm in nearly the exact same location at about the same time on different model runs and we continue to get closer in time to the storm. I have absolutely seen the medium-range American model notice the potential for a large Nor’easter along the East Coast as far out as 13 days on many occasions before. Does it mean it will happen? Absolutely not. It can absolutely be a figment of the model’s imagination. I have seen far more computer generated snowstorms that do not happen at this time range than do, but again, for the previously mentioned reasons, I am now intrigued by this possibility and wanted to mention it to you. The European model is a far superior model in the shorter range, but it only goes out to 10 days in advance so it has been of little use so far, however it should be noted that on the latest run it does now show the potential for a strong Nor’easter along the East Coast next Thursday. The European model run however does not bring the cold air in fast enough and makes it just a heavy rain event for the East Coast. The American model brings a cold front through here on Wednesday of next week and much colder air starting next Thursday, and likely, cold enough for snow in Northwest New Jersey next Friday as the storm starts to intensify near the Delmarva Peninsula (the peninsula where Delaware, Maryland and Virginia all meet). The high temperature would likely only be in the 30’s in Northwest New Jersey with snow next Friday if the American model is correct, and temperatures dropping into the 20’s next Friday night the 28th. Snow showers and flurries would occur all weekend long on the 29th and 30th as well with strong winds and highs only in the 30’s all weekend as the storm intensifies and stalls over New England. Keep in mind that this could all be a figment of the American model’s imagination. On the other hand, it could all become a reality. Only time will tell, and if by any chance it does happen, you can say you heard it here first.
Posted by The Edge at 7:03 PM