Tuesday, November 5th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, it is one of those mornings that I wake up and look at the European and American models and just wonder what the heck is going on?  I do a double take at the European model, then a triple take, then a quadruple take.  Do you get the picture?  This is for the longer term which I will talk about further in a minute.  First though we will see a warmer day today after a cooler start than expected as the temperature is currently 29 degrees at my location.  The high today though should reach the low to mid 50’s, followed by a beautiful day tomorrow as the highs reaches around 60.  Thursday a cold front will approach, bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon, which could be heavy at times, prior to clearing in the afternoon.  Temperatures will remain steady during the day on Thursday in the low to mid 50’s.  Friday and Saturday will then be much colder with highs in the mid to upper 40’s.  Sunday will start to warm a bit with highs reaching the low 50’s and this will continue through Tuesday.  Then, the European and American models are completely polar opposite, pun intended, as the European model drops the core of the polar vortex all the way to Virginia Beach, Virginia by next Friday, spinning up a potentially powerful Nor’easter that would bring rain and snow to the entire East Coast from Florida to Maine, with snow showers possible all the way down to South Carolina.  Meanwhile the American model has a heat wave developing by next Friday with temperatures for the following weekend in the 60’s.  Ok, well, I don’t really buy either one of these solutions, but I am more likely to believe the American model simply because the European model managed to produce a solution that there is just no way that I will buy into without some other model support, or at least one more run of the model managing to produce a similar whacked out solution such as this.  If by any chance the European model is right it would be one of the absolutely most nutso solutions I have ever seen, so I can only assume it is just a crazy whacked out model run that went haywire or something, but check back later for updates just in case.  Anyway, as you can imagine, the longer term of this forecast is based solely on the American model this morning.