Monday, December 16th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

I am reducing amounts again.  I think the European Model will win this again.  I had said it is dangerous to go against it when I did so.  I think that it may very well end up biting me in the behind.  We will find out soon, but the couple of models I have been basing my forecast on that typically do very well with these types of storms dropping down from Canada have been slowly backing off all day, including on the evening model runs.  Therefore, I am decreasing amounts to 1-3 inches.  I am thinking most people end up near 2 inches now.  I am feeling pretty stupid for going against the European model right now, but at least the National Weather Service outdid me after my apparently stupid forecast this morning, going with 2-5 inches, so I guess I should not feel too bad.  I really thought this storm was going to blow up when it hit the coast based upon the models I was following, but now I am thinking the European model was right all along.  Anyway the snow should start between 5 and 7 am and end around 12-1 pm.  I am now expecting total accumulations of 1-3 inches with most areas receiving around 2 inches. Moving beyond this storm, temperatures will warm quite dramatically, with temperatures rising to around 50 on Saturday with showers and possibly into the 60's on Sunday with showers and rain at night into Monday morning. Then temperatures will drop back to our normal for this winter next Monday, with a chance of some snow for Christmas Eve and then again next Thursday or Friday.  The next storm to watch will then likely be on New Year's Eve.  Have a nice evening everyone!