Monday, December 23rd, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

It looks as if we have an outside chance at an "official" White Christmas, with the definition in the United States being one inch of snow measured at 7 am on Christmas morning.  A disturbance will move across the Lake Erie tomorrow afternoon, stirring up some Lake Effect snow squalls that have a good chance of making it into our area late tomorrow afternoon around 4-5 pm.  These snow squalls might be locally quite heavy and at the moment happen to be targeted right at Northern New Jersey.  It is possible that they could leave in excess of an inch of snow in some locations as the temperatures at cloud level will be extremely cold late in the day tomorrow which will mean that very little moisture can produce an inch of snow. Snow ratios double from normal conditions when the clouds are as cold as they will be tomorrow evening, hence the chance for some areas actually meeting the definition of a White Christmas.  After this storm passes it will be nice but cold for Christmas Day, followed by the chance for some flurries on Thursday. Then the next storm to watch will be a potential storm forming along the coast next Tuesday for New Year's Eve, then another storm might develop around next Friday.