Saturday, December 28th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

We will have a nice and warmer day today with a high in the mid 40’s, followed by rain developing tomorrow morning and becoming heavy at times tomorrow afternoon prior to ending at night.  Monday should then be a nice day, followed by a chance of a snow shower on Tuesday afternoon.  It will be cold on Tuesday with a high around 30 and it should be around 20 degrees at midnight for the New Year’s celebration.  On New Year’s Day a weak disturbance is likely to approach our area, bringing with it a chance for some light snow/snow showers that have the potential to drop around an inch of snow.  On Thursday a disturbance will be dropping down into the central United States from Canada at the same time that a disturbance is moving along the Gulf Coast.  These two disturbances MAY combine near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Thursday night, becoming an intense Nor'easter and bringing us a chance for snow on Thursday and Friday as extremely cold air will be in place in our area at that time.  If these two disturbances do indeed combine, the track that the storm takes will determine how much snow we get, but at this time it does look likely that we will get at least some snow on either Thursday or Friday or both.  There is always a chance though that these pieces don’t come together or that the storm forms further out to sea missing us, so check back for updates.  To give you a little more insight, the ensemble mean of the European model is currently projecting 6 inches of snow on Thursday night and Friday in our area.  That means that half of the 51 ensemble members show less than 6 inches and half show more.  In fact, a third of the members currently show around a foot or more of accumulation.  The only reason I am mentioning this is to give you an idea of the POTENTIAL, but please understand this is still a long way out and just because there is potential, does not mean that the potential will be realized.  It could be, but of course this storm may not come together at all.  Be sure to check back for updates.