Thursday, December 26th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

We will have a chance of a snow shower this morning, followed by nice and warming days tomorrow and Saturday, with highs reaching the mid 40’s by Saturday.  Sunday a storm is going to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move northeast up the coast, bringing rain to our area on Sunday, starting around mid day.  The rain may get heavy at times in the afternoon, and could even change to snow before ending on Sunday night, with some light accumulations possible.  In all honesty, the way the models are showing this storm developing, it is extremely close to being snow.  The storm will remain to our south and east which automatically favors snow.  However there will be no truly cold air in place as the storm approaches on Sunday.  It would just take a track a bit further off shore, or for the storm to strengthen a bit quicker, for this to change to snow.  The rain/snow line right now on the models is just outside of our area to the north and west, as close as the Delaware River to our west and just north of Orange County to the north.  Any track further off shore would allow colder air to filter in to our area; also if the storm strengthened a bit quicker it would be able to pull cold air into it more rapidly.  As it is now, the storm deepens enough as it pulls away from our area that the models are showing a chance of the rain changing to snow before ending on Sunday night.  Moving beyond this storm it will get quite cold just in time for New Year’s Eve with the highs next Tuesday only in the mid to upper 20's, and temperatures around midnight on New Year’s being in the low teens.  It MAY then get quite cold after that, with highs only in the upper teens and lows in the single digits in many locations for a few days.  There are however many questions come next Thursday and Friday with how several disturbances will move across the country.  None of the models bring these disturbances together at the moment, giving us just a chance of some snow next Thursday and Friday.  Some models even indicate the potential for warming for next weekend, while others keep it very cold, so anything is possible starting next Thursday.  Then the next storm potential after next Thursday or Friday will be the following Tuesday and Wednesday.