Friday, January 17th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

The easy part to this forecast is the fact that it will be getting extremely cold around here starting on Tuesday and for the long term.  But the big question remains, how much snow?  Well, as far as this weekend goes, it looks as if we should see at least a bit of snow, with a dusting to an inch possible tomorrow morning, then a snow shower is possible on Sunday afternoon.  A snow shower will again be possible on Monday afternoon as the cold front approaches.  Then, for days, the models had been indicating the possibility of a monster Nor'easter on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Now the models have backed off on this possibility, keeping the energy out to sea, developing the storm well off the coast.  The big question is whether the models are correct in keeping this storm out to sea?  Well, as you get closer in time the models should indeed be getting a better handle on things, so most likely the storm will remain out to sea.  However, sometimes the models drop storms in this time range, only to have them re-appear as the energy gets back over land.  Right now some of the energy that will produce this storm is still out over the Pacific Ocean where there is very little data for the models.  As this energy gets back on land, where more data can be obtained by the various weather stations, there is still the possibility that this storm could re-appear, so don’t put your guard down just yet.  Yes, it most likely will miss us, but check back just in case, as there is a definite possibility for explosive development with this storm on Tuesday or Wednesday, if it were to occur.  As this energy passes by on Tuesday, cold air will pour into our area and will likely remain for the long-term.  Highs will most likely be in the teens most days, with lows in the single digits through much of the long-range period, with a slight chance for snow any day between Tuesday and Friday as multiple disturbances pass by our area.  The following week we will likely have chances for snow on Monday and Wednesday.  So, the only thing for sure is that we know it will be cold starting on Tuesday.  We will just have to wait and see how much snow we end up getting.