Wednesday, January 1st, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!  Well the National Weather Service went with the most EXTREME solution they could possibly find to produce their forecast this morning of a possible blizzard with 7-11 inches of snow for Northern Passaic County and Southeastern NY, 5-9 Inches for Northeast NJ, and 4-8 Inches for Northwest NJ.  I simply don’t see those forecast snowfall amounts happening.  Right off the bat, the most reliable forecast tool this winter has been the European ensemble mean, which is showing us getting about 3.5 inches.  Now, ok, let’s say that the model is not forecasting in a doubling of ratios due to the cold air, fine, and then you would get up to 7 inches.  BUT, the high ratio thing almost never works out.  What they apparently did is to base the entire forecast off the American models that were showing, 12-16 inches for the American short-range model and 6-8 inches for the American medium-range model.  However, they are the most extreme solutions.  This is why these models fall to the bottom of the pack in terms of accuracy and why I said last night that I was highly skeptical of its run last night.  Listed below is the breakdown from the various models and hence why my forecast is 3-7 inches, and lower than either of the National Weather Service forecast offices. 

Canadian model 1-3 inches. 

European model 2-5 inches.

British model 3-5 inches.

American medium-range model 6-8 inches.

American short-range model 12-16 inches

So, why did the National Weather Service do this?  I think they are seeing the potential that I saw two days ago, but wrote off yesterday morning already.  I also think it is called group-think, which is a dangerous thing.  Now, they could end up being correct, if the models change, but already the American short-range model just came in with amounts much, much lower, reducing snowfall potential from 12-16 inches to 4-8 inches on the latest run that just came out, lol.  That is exactly why I said last night that I do not trust our short-range model, nor do I hold much more trust in our medium range model.  They are simply the worst models out there.  Our country is not investing money in the models like the other countries are, hence their poor results.  Yet our National Weather Service went with them.  Oh well.  We shall see. 

Anyway, the snow will likely start late tonight lightly and remain light during the day tomorrow, before becoming moderate to occasionally heavy tomorrow night and into early Friday morning, ending around or shortly after sunrise with 3-7 inches of accumulation.  As the storm departs, extremely cold air will move into our area, with temperatures dropping to the upper single digits to low teens and holding steady during the day, then dropping to the low single digits below zero by Saturday morning.  Then on Sunday another storm system will be approaching, but this storm will head up to our west, causing temperatures to rise through the day on Sunday.  Light rain will develop in the late morning and continue through the day while temperatures rise to the upper 40’s by midnight.  On Monday we will have heavy rain and strong winds in the morning with temperatures rising to the low to mid 50’s.  Winds may gust 30-40 mph with heavy rain and snow melt causing flooding, followed by rapidly dropping temperatures in the afternoon causing the rain to change to snow showers and flurries with a flash freezing situation possible by evening as temperatures drop from the low to mid 50’s to the mid to upper 20’s within only a few hours.  This will cause any standing water to freeze rapidly.  Temperatures will then drop to the upper single digits by Tuesday morning and will hold steady all day.  Then later in the week another strong storm is likely to approach, bringing a chance of light snow next Friday morning, changing to heavy rain by afternoon.  Then yet another storm may approach for next Saturday and Sunday, bringing a chance for freezing rain next Saturday and rain next Sunday, but that is a long way out, so let’s wait and see what happens.  HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!  I wish that I had a better forecast for you though.