Saturday, January 11th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Today was an unreal day here in Northern New Jersey as some locations such as mine made it into the low 60's.  It reached 62 degrees today here at my location and we had a thunderstorm with cloud to ground lightening at one point.  Hopefully the flooding is not too bad tonight and everybody makes it safely through tonight with the potential ice jam situation.  The next storm to watch will be on Tuesday.  This storm went from looking like another storm with flooding potential on the European model, to now not being any more than a little rain on Tuesday.  As this storm passes a cold front will come through, bringing some cold air into our area just in time for yet another storm to move into our area on Wednesday.  The Wednesday storm might end up being fairly significant in a very small 50-mile wide area. The difficulty is in determining where that 50-mile wide area will end up being.  Again this evening, just like last evening at this time, it appears that it might be us.  The evening run of the American model once again puts this area right over New Jersey, just as it did last evening.  The European looks very similar, although it does keep this area a bit more to our north and west.  We will just have to wait and see where this area sets up as those who are in this band will likely get around 3 inches of snow on Wednesday. After that storm passes it definitely seems as if we will be in a much colder and snowier pattern for the rest of the 2 week period, and possibly beyond, with a chance for snow showers on Friday night, again on Sunday night, then the Polar Vortex might make a run at us again for early next week, followed by a chance for a more significant snowstorm for around Wednesday of next week.  Check back in the morning on the latest for the potential snow on Wednesday and the potential pattern change with possible Polar Vortex intrusion for early next week.  Have a nice evening.