Saturday, January 18th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

We will have a chance of a snow shower tomorrow, then a greater chance for a snow shower on Monday afternoon as the arctic front approaches, marking the return of the Polar Vortex.  After that there are many questions.  The models seem to be trying to bring back the Tuesday storm, with the possibility of light snow as close as South Jersey and the Jersey Coast on Tuesday.  Since the models have been focusing more on this storm, they have been focusing a bit less on the Thursday storm, changing that to a light snowfall instead.  I will say that I feel very uncomfortable with the model uncertainty.  The potential is there for one of these storms to become quite significant, but it is unlikely that both will be, as there needs to be more distance between storms to have two more significant storms.  If the first one is strong enough to bring us some snow on Tuesday, then most likely the second one would be very weak.  If the first storm on Tuesday is weaker and misses everyone completely, then it would be more likely that the second storm on Thursday would be stronger.  It is nearly impossible at this point to tell what will happen.  We just have to wait for the models to figure it all out, but this evening I am very uncomfortable with the way the models are handling things.  We may be in for a surprise with the models come tomorrow I believe.  I am just not certain what the surprise will be, but it is one of those cases where I feel pretty confident that there will be major changes with the models come tomorrow.  After these storms pass yet another storm could threaten us on Friday, and again on Saturday and Sunday.  Then a bigger storm may approach for the following Tuesday.  There is so much going on, including the Polar Vortex sitting nearby that it would take very little moisture to create a lot of snow, especially come Thursday. Gee whiz, I just have a really nervous feeling about things tonight.  I feel that this pattern is explosive and ripe with potential but the models have not figured it out yet.  Join me tomorrow morning to see what surprises the models have in store for us.  Have a nice evening.