Sunday, January 19th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, yesterday had an interesting morning with heavy thundersnow in some places and 3.5 inches of snow in Wantage, New Jersey.  It was really incredible.  Today should be a fairly uneventful day, then tomorrow the arctic cold front will approach, bringing a chance for a snow shower in the afternoon or evening, then it will get much colder just in time for a storm to develop along the front that passed through on Monday night.  This storm should remain just far enough off shore on Tuesday to prevent any significant precipitation from getting into our area.  However, the models were a few days back showing the possibility of a significant snowstorm for our area on Tuesday.  Now the models keep trying to bring back this storm on each run, bringing it closer and closer on Tuesday.  Now it looks as if we could actually get at least a bit of snow on Tuesday, whether it is flurries or an accumulating snow is yet to be seen, but at the moment it does appear that we could get a dusting to an inch of snow on Tuesday.  If by any chance the trend of bringing this storm back were to continue, it could mean even more snow on Tuesday, so I will be keeping a close eye on it, especially since the upper atmosphere will be extremely cold on Tuesday, so even very small amounts of precipitation can lead to large amounts of snow on Tuesday as the ratios under those circumstances can easily double or even triple, much as they did yesterday morning.  After this storm passes the temperatures will plummet on Wednesday, with lows reaching the low to mid single digits on Wednesday morning, and the high on Wednesday should only be in the low to mid teens.  Then on Thursday another storm system will likely approach our area.  This system also has quite a bit of potential, especially since the upper atmosphere will be incredibly cold, again meaning that the snow ratios should be very high, so even a very small amount of precipitation could lead to some decent snowfall amounts.  Right now though, as the models have shifted their focus to the Tuesday storm, taking away some of the energy away from the Thursday storm.  So right now this storm also looks as if it should be in the dusting to an inch or two range.  Again though, we need to keep a close eye on this storm.  Then yet another storm system will approach for next weekend that will likely bring us more snow showers for both Saturday and Sunday.  After that storm passes, it should again get quite cold for next Monday, with lows dropping to the low to mid single digits and the highs only in the low to mid teens.  Then yet another storm system will approach next Tuesday night, bringing another chance for some snow showers.  After that storm passes temperatures may warm through at least the following weekend, giving us a chance for rain and warmer temperatures for the Super Bowl weekend.