Thursday, January 16th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Hot off the press.  Although the main operational run of the American model shows nothing for the middle of the week, 4 of the 12 ensemble members of the latest run that just came out now show a massive blizzard-like storm just off shore.  They all keep it off shore, BUT the Canadian model did not keep it off shore and produced an all-out blizzard for our entire area on Tuesday night and the American model has a known southeast bias with East Coast storms.  The American model has it centered more on Wednesday, but this is a major change for the American model.  The prior run of the American model only had one member that showed such a scenario.  My gut instinct right now is that the European model had a bad run this afternoon.  I am NOT saying that we will get a blizzard next Wednesday, but what I am saying is that it is definitely not out of the question this evening and that you should check back tomorrow morning.  Before that though, we will have a chance at a dusting to an inch of snow on Saturday morning as a weak storm passes by our area.  We will then have a chance of snow showers on Sunday and Monday as other disturbances passes through our area.  Then all the questions arise with the potential major East Coast storm or even blizzard for Tuesday or Wednesday, probably Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The European model had been all over this potential for days, then dropped it completely this afternoon while the American model currently has nothing as well, however 4 out of 12 of the ensemble members have a blizzard-like storm just off shore, much like the Canadian model has over our heads.  So, the question is whether the European model simply had a bad run this afternoon?  It does this quite often and it did so with our last major snowstorm in this time frame as well.  My hunch is that it did indeed have a bad run.  This does not of course mean that we will get a blizzard, as the storm could still be just off shore as the American model ensemble members show, or it could simply be a weaker storm.  A couple of the European ensemble members also produce a major snowstorm in our area, but keep in mind that the European model has 51 members, so that is not saying much.  Anyway, after this potential storm passes we will have very cold air intrude our area with another chance at a significant snowstorm, potentially very significant next Friday night into Saturday, and then another one the following Tuesday, then yet another one the following Friday.  Please check back in the morning and see if my hunch is right that this storm comes back.  I am not certain that it will at all, but I think it might.  Please join me tomorrow morning to find out.  Have a nice evening.