Wednesday, January 8th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Click here to view this interesting and informative video that explains a polar vortex, courtesy of the White House.  I am extremely concerned about the possibility of ice jams on major area rivers as we head into this weekend.  The temperatures will rise to near 60 degrees by Saturday night.  This rapid temperature rise, combined with snow melt to the north and heavy rain on Saturday night may very well lead to a potentially very dangerous situation with ice jams on major rivers.  These ice jams could lead to some very serious localized flooding, with little prior notice.  If you or someone you care about lives near a large river or stream, please be very careful and be on the look out for ice jams, especially on Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Click here to read the latest Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service in reference this threat.  And click here to read about all the possibilities in this Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service.  I remain interested in the the middle of next week for a potentially significant storm.  More on that in a minute.  Tomorrow we will have variably cloudy skies with a chance of a flurry and it will be warmer with a high approaching 30 degrees.  Then as the warm air starts to take hold of our area on Friday it will produce some snow on Friday morning that is likely to accumulate a dusting to a half of an inch.  After the snow stops around mid day on Friday the temperatures will start to warm noticeably, reaching the upper 30's on Friday afternoon and then the upper 50's by Saturday night.  On Saturday a rather strong storm will bring us rain starting around mid day, then becoming quite heavy in the late afternoon and evening and ending in the early morning on Sunday.  There is likely to be some flooding on Saturday night and early on Sunday morning.  The high on Sunday is likely to be in the mid 40's, then warming to the upper 40's on Monday.  Then the questions come in with what track a potentially very strong storm takes next Tuesday.  It is now looking likely that a storm will form along the Gulf Coast and head Northeast in our direction, potentially intensifying into a strong storm.  The track that this storm takes, if it does indeed form, would make the difference between rain and snow, and potentially quite heavy rain and snow, along with potentially strong winds as well.  Right now the European model would produce only heavy rain and strong winds in our area, but a shift in track about 200 miles further east would make this a big snowstorm.  I have no idea how this will all work out, but this is indeed the storm that I was referring to already almost a week ago.  It is now appearing on the European model and it is indeed quite a significant storm, although, as I said before, it is currently depicted as all rain.  After this potential storm passes it appears that it will get colder behind this storm, with the chance for more storms the following Saturday and Tuesday.  Check back in the morning for the latest.