It does not produce the big storm this weekend, producing just light snow from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. It is not far from producing a big storm, but it is keeping the two pieces of energy just barely apart, which prevents the storm from developing into something major. If those two pieces come together, then BOOM... We shall see.
It has significant snow for us next Wednesday.
It then produces the Friday storm next week that the American model has, but as a rain storm.
Canadian Model is on fire this year. When is their next run?
ReplyDeleteYes, I actually contacted the person in charge of model verification statistics at the headquarters for the National Weather Service in reference the fact that they had not been tracking the accuracy of the Canadian model since it had been extended last year out to 10 days on the afternoon run. I was curious as to the level of accuracy of the model since they also changed to using the same data initialization scheme that the European model uses. The level of accuracy of the Canadian model now rivals the European model at 8 days, and is better than our model at 8 days and often 6 and 5 days, and it is just as high and sometimes higher than even the European model at 10 days out. Of course no one would even know this if I did not bring all of this to their attention in the first place. I honestly had no idea it would work out like this that the Canadian model would sometimes be performing better than the European model out to 10 days when I told them to add it, but it is. I am just glad they actually listened to me and added it. How can we even go about fixing our own model if we don't know how it compares to other models? Especially since the Canadian model is now using the same data analysis system that the European model is using.
ReplyDeleteOh, yes, and the answer to your question is that the next run comes out around 12:30 am. Twice per day, around 12:30 am and 12:30 pm. Our American Global Model is the only one that is run more than twice per day.
ReplyDeleteAnd the only reason we are able to run it more than twice per day is because it is run at such a low resolution in comparison to the other models, and that allows it to be completed much quicker. The other models are run at a much higher resolution which usually gives you a better end result, but it also takes much longer to complete the cycle, so there is only enough time in the day to run it twice.
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