No doubt about it, a strong Nor’easter is likely to develop
off the Middle Atlantic and New Jersey Coast on Saturday as a strong upper
level low pressure area (a piece of the Polar Vortex) drops down from Canada and
reaches the North Carolina Coast near Cape Hatteras.
As the piece of the Polar Vortex reaches the coast and the
warm waters and Gulf Stream just off shore, explosive cyclogenesis is likely to
occur on Saturday evening, resulting in a Nor’easter that will intensify as if
moves to the North and East.
The question is how close will this storm come to our
area? With the upper level low pressure
area developing that far to the south and east, it may keep the majority of
precipitation just far enough to our south and east so that we receive only
light rain or showers on Saturday with highs in the mid 40’s in Northern New
Jersey. The storm could then pull away
before the cold air has a chance to move in to the area overnight on Saturday,
meaning only a chance of the rain mixing with wet snow before ending late on
Saturday night, but with many areas not seeing any snow at all.
If however the upper level low does not push that far to the
south and comes through Maryland instead of North Carolina and Virginia, then
the storm would develop closer to us, resulting in more rain and cooler
temperatures, with a greater chance for more snow, especially on Saturday
night. This solution does not look the
most likely to occur at the moment however.
This situation needs to be watched closely as it is still 3
days away and things can change, but at the moment Northern New Jersey looks as
if it may luck out with only some light rain and showers on Saturday, with
areas further south and east having a chance of heavier rain, and Northern New
England looking at the possibility of significant snowfall accumulations.
Anyway, we will have a chance of some showers today as the
cold front pushes through, followed by nice weather for Thursday and increasing
cloudiness on Friday prior to the storm on Saturday.
After the storm passes we will have clearing on Sunday with
highs only in the low to mid 40’s, followed by lows on Monday morning in the
mid to upper 20’s.
We will then have more seasonal temperatures and weather for
the following week with highs mainly in the 50’s.
Check back, we need to keep a close eye on the Saturday
storm, but at the moment it looks as if we may get lucky this time.
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