Saturday, November 22, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

A Major Nor’easter is now looking likely right at the busiest travel time of the entire year and in the most densely populated area of the country, Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving morning.  This will likely be followed by a chance for a bit more snow next Saturday and possibly again next Sunday afternoon into Monday morning just in time for everyone to try and make it back to wherever they are going.  The timing could not be worse…

First though, we will have a chance of a bit of drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight into tomorrow morning as low temperatures will drop to the low to mid 30’s, so if driving tonight into tomorrow morning, please be careful.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer as warm air starts to filter into our area ahead of an approaching cold front.  The highs tomorrow will be in the upper 40’s.

Rain should develop around midnight on Sunday night and become heavy at times overnight and into the morning, then tapering to showers late on Monday morning, with a chance of showers the rest of the day.  It will be quite warm as warm air surges northward into our area ahead of an approaching cold front.  The highs on Monday will be in the mid 60’s.

Tuesday will then be mostly sunny with early morning highs in the mid 50’s, dropping to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by afternoon after the cold front comes through, then will drop to the low to mid 30’s by Wednesday morning. 

Then early Wednesday morning all the fun begins as a low pressure area starts to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico just to the west of Tampa Bay and Fort Meyers, Florida.   

The low pressure area will then cross the Florida Peninsula and start to develop into a Nor’easter about 50 miles East of Jacksonville, Florida later on Wednesday morning.  At this point snow would be possible as far south as Eastern Alabama, Northern Georgia, Western South Carolina, Western North Carolina, and Western Virginia. 

The center of the Nor’easter will then track due north to a position near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon.  At this time heavy snow would be possible from Northern and Western Georgia through Western South Carolina, Western North Carolina, Virginia from about Richmond north and west through Baltimore, Washington D.C., Northern and Western Maryland, with lighter snow starting to move into the Eastern 2/3 of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, excluding possibly coastal sections, Southeastern New York, and Connecticut.  New York City and Western Long Island will most likely be boarder line with temperatures at this point. 

By Wednesday evening the Nor’easter will be strengthening with the center located about 100 miles off the Virginia Capes.  At this time light snow would be ending in Northern Georgia, South Carolina excluding coastal sections, with lighter snow in North Carolina, and heavy snow falling through much of Virginia excluding possibly coastal sections, most of Maryland excluding possibly areas near the Delmarva Peninsula, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey excluding possibly right along the coast, New York City and Western Long Island, all of Southeastern New York, and all of Southern New England with the snow just beginning in Northern New England.

By around midnight on Wednesday night the center of the Nor’easter should be located near Eastern Long Island with light snow coming to an end in North Carolina and light snow still falling in most of Virginia with moderate to heavy snow falling in Maryland, Delaware, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey excluding possibly coastal sections, most of New York State, probably into New York City and Western Long Island but they are close with the temperatures.  The snow could change to rain at that time in Southeastern New England including up to Boston, depending on the exact track of the storm. 

On Thanksgiving morning the snow will finally be coming to an end in Northeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey but will be continuing in New York State and most of New England, excluding possibly coastal New England including Boston where it may be rain, depending on the eventual track of the storm.

By Thanksgiving afternoon the snow should be coming to an end in all places except for far Northern New England where it will end on Thursday evening.

There will however be scattered snow showers through the day on Thanksgiving from Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward and possibly even into Friday.

If this track verifies as outlined above the potential would be there for a wide swath of 6-12 inches of snow, with localized amounts of 12 -18 inches from Western North Carolina through most of Virginia except for far southeastern sections, Eastern West Virginia, most of Maryland and Delaware except for right along the coast, the eastern two thirds of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey except for possibly right along the coast, New York City, the eastern two thirds of New York State, New York City and Western Long Island, excluding possibly Eastern Long Island, then all of Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, most of Massachusetts excluding southeastern sections, all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  From Connecticut through Massachusetts excluding southeastern sections, New Hampshire and Maine and possibly into Vermont some amounts of up to 20 inches would be possible. 

ALL OF THIS DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE VERIFYING AS IS.  ANY CHANGES WOULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND REMEMBER, THIS IS WEATHER, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.  IT COULD ALL GO AWAY TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH I DOUBT THAT WILL HAPPEN, PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS MOTHER NATURE WE ARE DEALING WITH!

Moving beyond this potential storm there may be a bit of light snow on Saturday, and then we will have to watch for the potential of another more significant storm that could produce some problems with some snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. 

After that things should warm up for a while. 

We just have to manage to get through the insanity of the next 9 days with 65 degrees likely on Monday, then possibly a major snowstorm Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving morning, then possibly a bit more snow next Saturday morning, then potentially another significant storm next Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  Oh my…

Have a nice evening and please join me in the morning for the latest information on this potentially serious and dangerous storm during the busiest travel time of the year.

Please tell all of your friends and family about this blog. 

Thank you.

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us