Sunday, November 23, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

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One thing I learned years ago is that when a storm starts to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and then heads up the East Coast in winter, LOOK OUT!!!

A major Nor'easter is likely for Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning in the most densely populated area of the United States at the busiest travel time of the year… 

The data is very much coming into line with my thinking that I started talking about on the evening of Friday, November 14^th, that is 9 days ago already.  Yes, that was my first mention of this possible storm.  Of course I did not get all the details right as I thought there might be severe weather before this storm developed, and there is, but it is over the Southeastern United States tonight.  The severe weather here turned out to be the heavy rain we will be getting late tonight into tomorrow morning.  I did mention the cold frontal passage which will happen Tuesday, and then I mentioned that a coastal storm might form after the front passes.  Well, that is exactly what is happening and I said all of this 9 DAYS AGO!!!  I will go back after the storm and lay everything out, but I think I pretty much said there would be a chance of snow every day after that leading up till now.  I almost gave up on this storm a few days back, but even then when the data was going against me, I didn't write it off completely.  Anyway, pasted below is a portion of the post.  You are welcome to use the search bar to go back and search out that post and look at every one I made after this.  Yes, I very often get these big storms from two weeks out.  The next paragraph is what I said two weeks ago.  Remember the severe weather potential I talk about is the heavy rain we will be get tomorrow morning and is currently occurring over the Southeastern United States right now.

I am quite concerned about the potential for severe weather next Tuesday and Wednesday (the day before Thanksgiving is the busiest travel day of the year) as a strong cold front and associated vigorous upper level low pressure area will be moving across the United States and nearing the East Coast next Wednesday.  There may be severe thunderstorms with this storm system and there is even a slight chance of a coastal storm forming after the cold front passes, heading toward Thanksgiving and Black Friday. 

Anyway, looking forward, we will have heavy rain late tonight into tomorrow morning then a chance of showers the rest of tomorrow and it will be quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 60’s and some areas could actually break 70.  Amazing. 

Then Tuesday morning the cold front will come through and temperatures will fall from the mid to upper 50’s in the morning to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by afternoon, then to the low to mid 30’s by Wednesday morning. 

Then all the fun begins as a low pressure area will start to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, then cross the Florida Peninsula, then up the East Coast of the United States.  The storm will turn into a Nor’easter as it crosses into the Atlantic and will strengthen as it starts to move northward to a point near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon and then to a point about 50 miles off the coast of New Jersey on Wednesday night, then to near Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and finally into the Gulf of Maine by Thanksgiving morning.  

This track would bring a very heavy snowfall to areas from the Southern Appalachians through Virginia (excluding southeastern sections), most of West Virginia, Maryland (excluding southeastern sections), Northwestern Delaware, most of Pennsylvania (excluding possibly the extreme western part), New Jersey (excluding possibly coastal and southeastern New Jersey), the majority of New York State (excluding possibly extreme western New York State and Eastern Long Island), Connecticut, Rhode Island (except possibly coastal locations), Massachusetts (excluding southeastern Massachusetts), Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

In the areas outline above there is likely to be a widespread swath of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 12-24 inches possible (especially across New England).

The snow will likely start in Northern New Jersey sometime between 6 and 8 am on Wednesday morning.  It may start briefly as some light rain or very wet snow but will quickly change to snow as the intensity of the snow increases.  The snow will then become moderate to heavy by around 10-11 am and quite heavy by around 1-2 pm when travel could start to become quite difficult in Northern New Jersey.  The snow will fall heavy at times through early on Thanksgiving morning before coming to an end around 6-7 am. 

The only thing that could cut back on accumulations in some locations would be that, as the storm approaches on Wednesday night at its closest point to us, it could bring some warm air off the ocean to some eastern locations.  This would have the potential to change the snow to rain for a brief period of time before changing back to snow.  We will have to see if that happens and where it happens if it does.  The areas that don’t mix or changeover have a very real chance to see up to or over a foot of snow. 

The good news is that it now appears that it may warm up after this storm somewhat, doing away with the other potential snow threats that had existed for next weekend and into the following week.

The next threat for snow seems to be a potential Nor’easter around the weekend of December 6^th and 7^th. 

Have a nice evening and please tell everyone about this blog. 

Join me in the morning for the latest information on the impending storm.

And if you want to escape all of this stuff, my dad happens to own a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  It was 86 degrees there today.

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