Rain/severe flooding possible in parts of the Middle Atlantic, and a potential hurricane to watch...
A strong upper level low pressure area will be approaching the Middle Atlantic States over the next couple of days. This will cause a surface low to form over the Middle Atlantic States. This storm will then remain nearly stationary through Monday, bringing some very heavy rainfall amounts from Central Virginia up through Washington D.C, Baltimore, and Central Pennsylvania, where up to 9 inches of rain could fall in some locations by Thursday night. Right now the heaviest rainfall amounts are expected near the Baltimore and Washington D.C. areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning, where severe flooding possible.
Right now in our area it does appear that some of the heavy rainfall could make it into all of Eastern Pennsylvania, so East Central and Northeastern PA, possibly into Northwestern NJ will have to keep a close eye on this situation for late Wednesday night into Thursday, as some flooding could occur. We will have to watch very closely where this band of heavy rainfall sets up, as it still could shift further east or west.
The short-range American model is even showing the possibility of up to 13 inches of rainfall where this heavy band sets up. The short-range American model currently has this area a bit further west, about 50 miles west of DC, but this was a shift to the east on the last run with this model, bringing it closer to what the European and British models show, with the Bull’s Eye currently near Washington D.C. and Baltimore.
Obviously, if anyone really does get 9-13 inches of rain it would cause serious problems as historic flooding would occur, with severe damage and many roads and bridges likely to be washed out. We have to keep a close eye on whether this really does set up as the models are currently showing, and then if it does, exactly where it sets up.
This is a potentially dangerous situation for parts of the Middle Atlantic…
Anyway, in the Allentown and New York City Metropolitan areas, as the storm starts to develop tomorrow, we will have a chance of showers developing tomorrow afternoon or evening, and they could become heavy at times late at night, and into Thursday morning, especially in East Central and Northeastern PA. Some flooding will be possible, especially in East Central and Northeastern PA, and possibly into Northwestern NJ, or further east if the storm pushes east at all.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will actually continue through Monday, but they are likely to be more scattered through that time, although they could be heavy at times. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s tomorrow, the low to mid 60’s Thursday, and the mid 50’s to mid 60’s Friday and Saturday, then rising to the upper 60’s to mid 70’s Sunday and Monday.
Next Tuesday and Wednesday should then be nice with highs in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s.
Next Thursday we will have a chance of showers/thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Highs should be in the low to mid 70.s
Next Friday through Monday should then be nice with highs mainly in the 60’s.
Another very big and important concern would be the possibility of a hurricane approaching the Gulf of Mexico or the East Coast of Florida by next weekend. This hurricane has the potential to become quite strong. It is still too early to tell whether it will head into the Gulf of Mexico or up the East Coast, although I am currently leaning 80/20 towards it going into the Gulf of Mexico, then becoming a major hurricane before making landfall on the West Coast of Florida. It is still too early to tell though and we need to keep a close eye on this potential. If you live or own property anywhere along the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts you should keep a very close eye on this storm. Of course, I will keep you updated here.
Please join me early tomorrow morning for the latest information on these two potential severe weather events…
Have a wonderful evening!
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