Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 - Morning Weather Discussion

Serious damage likely in Southeastern US Coastal areas…

Hurricane Matthew has weakened to a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph after crossing Western Haiti and Eastern Cuba. However, now that Matthew is moving back out over open waters, he will strengthen again to a Category 4 storm and will move through the Bahamas, then reach the Florida Coast, probably just to the north of West Palm Beach, Florida, late Thursday night or early Friday morning, then track northwest, right along the Florida coast. The most likely point of landfall (if there is one), would be between West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach. My best guess right now is that the eye of Matthew will parallel the Florida Coast from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, remaining just off shore by a few miles in most locations, but possibly making landfall on Cape Canaveral, then continue north and parallel the Georgia Coast, then turn northeast and parallel the Southern South Carolina Coast, then turn east near Charleston, South Carolina. Then head east and spin around off the Southeast Coast of the United States for days, weakening substantially, and possibly making a second landfall as a Tropical Disturbance or Tropical Storm Tuesday, along the Southeastern Florida Coast.

The projected track of this storm listed above would keep the strongest winds just off shore of the Southeastern United States Coast by only a few miles, with winds just off shore of up to 145 mph as Matthew should be a Category 4 storm as it approaches the Florida East Coast. Matthew will likely weaken to a Category 3 storm as it parallels the coast, due to the interaction with the land. Coastal sections of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and possibly as far north as Wilmington, NC could see wind gusts of up to 100 mph or more with some significant damage from both winds and coastal flooding. In addition, coastal locations of Florida and Georgia will receive rainfall amounts of around 7-8 inches, but coastal sections of South Carolina and North Carolina, up to about Wilmington, will receive rainfall amounts of up to about 15 inches, which would also cause significant flooding along the South Carolina Coast and possibly up to Wilmington, NC.

Click here for the latest on Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center.

Click here for the latest satellite imagery of Hurricane Matthew.

Now, back to the New York and Allentown, PA Metropolitan areas…

Today through Friday will be beautiful with highs in the mid to upper 60’s today, and the low to mid 70’s inland tomorrow and Friday.

Saturday we will have a chance of showers or thunderstorms as moisture increase ahead of Hurricane Matthew and a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the low to mid 60’s.

Sunday will be variably cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm and highs ranging from the mid to upper 50’s in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 60’s in Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, on Long Island and in Fairfield County, CT.

Monday through next Friday will then be nice with highs mainly in the low to mid 60’s Monday, and the mid to upper 60’s Tuesday through Friday.

Next Saturday there will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms with highs mainly in the low to mid 60’s.

Next Sunday will be variably cloudy with a chance of showers or thunderstorms and highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

Next Monday looks nice and warm with highs in the mid to upper 70’s.

Next Tuesday looks variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm and highs in the upper 60’s to the mid 70’s.

Have a fantastic day and please join me later for the latest on Hurricane Matthew.

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