Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Wednesday, January 18, 2017 - Evening weather Discussion

Chances increase for a wintry Sunday night/Monday…

The chances have increased quite a bit that the we will have a wintry solution to the Sunday Night/Monday storm…

First though, it will be nice tomorrow with highs in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Friday will then start out nice, but clouds will increase in the afternoon, with a chance of rain in the late afternoon and evening as a warm front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 40’s, with some low 50’s possible in parts of Central NJ.

Saturday will then be nice with highs in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

Sunday, a strong storm system will be moving through Oklahoma and heading east, reaching the Southeastern United States by Sunday night. The storm will be strengthening as it heads into the Southeastern United States. The storm will then turn northeastward, reaching a point near the Virginia Capes by Monday afternoon, and then to a point about 50-100 miles off the coast of NJ Monday night, then to a point just off Cape Cod by Tuesday afternoon. This track would typically mean snow in our area in the second half of January, especially with how strong this storm is likely to be. However, the set-up is not completely ideal for snow, as there is no cold air readily available to our north for the storm to pull down, even with this perfect track for a snowstorm. However, this storm is still 4-5 days away and there is time for things to change. It would not take much of a change to make this a snowstorm instead of a rainstorm. I must emphasize that the data still favors this being a rainstorm, but honestly, the data shifted quite substantially towards what my concern has been with this storm, that it might redevelop quicker and take a track just as it is showing tonight. That track is not enough however. The storm would have to not only take the perfect track, but would have to be quite strong as it approaches our area, and redevelop a bit further east, closer to the coast, rather than over the Southeastern United States. This book is yet to have been written and we will just have to wait and see how this works out.

So, for now, I will go with a chance of rain or snow developing Sunday afternoon or evening and continuing through the day on Monday, possibly heavy at times. It will also be windy.  Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s Sunday and the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Monday.

Tuesday will then be variably cloudy with highs in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Next Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a rain shower and highs will be in the 40’s to low 50’s.

Next Thursday through Sunday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers each day as several disturbances approach from the west. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday, the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Friday, and the 30’s next Saturday and Sunday.

Next Monday and Tuesday then look nice with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Monday and Tuesday.

Have a fantastic evening and please join me tomorrow morning for the latest information…

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