Monday, March 19, 2018

Monday, March 19, 2018 - Evening Weather Discussion

Major snowstorm possible in the NYC and Allentown PA Metro Areas!

A major snowstorm is looking increasingly likely as a couple of disturbances are approaching the Middle Atlantic States from the west. This will cause snow to develop in parts of East Central PA and Central NJ as early as tomorrow afternoon, and then in the evening and at night in the rest of our area. The snow may then become heavy at times Wednesday, especially Wednesday afternoon as the two disturbances phase off the Delmarva Peninsula, becoming a strong Nor’easter. The snow will then end Wednesday night. It will also become quite windy with gusts of up to 50 mph possible inland and 60 mph possible along the coast and on Long island. Highs tomorrow will be in the 30’s and in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s Wednesday.

Snowfall amounts will be dependent upon how and where exactly the center of low pressure develops and the exact track that it takes. There is however the potential for widespread amounts of 8-16 inches with localized amounts of up to 24 inches possible. It is still uncertain however whether this will encompass our entire area of East Central and Northeastern PA, Central and Northern NJ, NYC, Southeastern NY State, Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT, as the track is still uncertain, especially considering that the Nor’easter won’t even develop until Wednesday morning. So, we will have to wait and see if we all get in on these higher snowfall amounts. Any track further off the coast would reduce snowfall amounts in western sections. There even remains a small chance that western sections could be left out completely if the storm tracks further off the coast than currently projected. However, at the moment, the data is indicating the likelihood that we all get a significant snowstorm. Be sure to check back in the morning though for the latest information.

Some people asked me today if this was now guaranteed for us. Please keep in mind that nothing is ever guaranteed with the weather. All I can do is take an educated guess.  I have done that, and now we will see what happens. Storms like this ALWAYS have surprises with them. Join me in the morning and let’s see if we can figure out what those surprises might be.

And yes, I have started preparing for the storm and have told my family and friends to do so, as the combination of heavy, wet snow, and strong winds, could produce widespread power outages. Now I just hope that we don’t have to use the preparations.

Also, coastal flooding may be an issue with the strong onshore winds lasting for up to 24 hours.

And yes, the potential is there for blizzard conditions in large parts of our area, especially along the coast and on Long Island.

Of course, all of this is contingent upon exactly how this storm develops and the exact track that it takes. If the storm fails to develop as currently projected, or tracks further out to sea, we could still get away very easy. We will just have to wait and see.

Moving beyond this storm…

Thursday through Saturday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Thursday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Friday and Saturday.

Sunday and next Monday we will have a chance of snow as a disturbance passes through our area from the west. Highs will be in the 30’s.

Next Tuesday through Thursday will then be nice with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s next Tuesday, the 40’s next Wednesday and the mid 40’s to low 50’s next Thursday.

Friday into next Sunday morning there will then be a chance of rain or snow as a disturbance approaches from the west, possibly turning into a Nor’easter near the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s, depending on how the Nor’easter develops.

Have a wonderful evening and please join me early in the morning for the latest information...

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