Tuesday, March 20, 2018 - Evening Weather Discussion

Very difficult forecast…

One disturbance is currently just east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. A second very strong disturbance is approaching the Middle Atlantic Coast from the west. These two disturbances will phase near the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula tomorrow afternoon, becoming a strong Nor’easter and then heading eastward and out to sea. That is the easy part, now for the hard part…

As the Nor’easter explosively develops tomorrow afternoon it will throw copious amounts of moisture back on land. The second part to this storm is that the cold air in place in our area is pushing down from the north on this storm and moisture, creating a road block in the atmosphere. This can be witnessed on the radar today as it is currently snowing in Central NJ but won’t make it any further northward. In fact, there are reports of up to 7 inches of snow in parts of Southeastern PA already. This first batch of moisture will pass by tonight and then the next batch will approach tomorrow as the second Nor’easter develops near the Delmarva Peninsula.  I believe the same squeeze play may happen again tomorrow, preventing much of the moisture and snow from making it into Northern parts of our area. Please keep in mind that with the squeeze play currently in place, what we are dealing with is the fact that 50 miles north to south will make the difference between 20 inches of snow and nothing.

The snow that is currently falling in East Central PA and Central NJ will largely come to end this evening and then the next batch will start between about 8 am and midday from south to north across our area, becoming heavy at times in the afternoon and evening and ending late Wednesday night, and into early Thursday morning on Eastern Long Island.

It is honestly a very tough call, but I am going with the following at this point, subject to change in the morning:

Total possible accumulations, subject to change tomorrow morning:

Coating to 6 inches possible – from north to south in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT

2-10 inches possible – Northern NJ, north to south, from far northern Sussex County, southward to approximately Rt. 78

5-10 inches possible – NYC and Long Island, with the highest amounts on Staten Island and on Central Long Island

5-15 inches possible – from north to south in East Central PA from Northern Northampton and Schuylkill Counties in PA southward

10-20 inches possible – Central NJ

Winds could gust up to 35 mph inland and 50 mph along the coast.

Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 30’s.

Some power outages will be likely in East Central PA and Central NJ due to the heavy wet snow and gusty winds. Power outages could potentially be widespread in Central NJ.

Coastal flooding will also be a potential problem.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SMALL CHANGES CAN SHIFT THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH, POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME PEOPLE IN OUR AREA WITH ZERO SNOW!  ON THE OTHER HAND, THE STORM COULD SHIFT NORTHWARD, CHANGING PEOPLE THAT I CURRENTLY HAVE WITH LOW SNOW AMOUNTS BEING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. VERY SMALL CHANGES WILL MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN WHO GETS HOW MUCH SNOW!!!

Moving beyond this storm, things will clear out Thursday with highs in the upper 30’s and 40’s.

Friday and Saturday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Sunday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance passes south of our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Monday through next Wednesday will then be nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Monday, the upper 40’s to mid 50’s next Tuesday, and the mid 50’s to low 60’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of showers as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

Next Friday through Monday then look variably cloudy with a chance of showers as a couple of disturbances pass through our area. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s next Friday through Sunday, dropping to the 40’s next Monday.

Have a wonderful evening and please join me early in the morning for the latest information…

Download the Edgeweather weather app from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store, search for, "Edgeweather".

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org

I am Principal of Sussex County Charter School for Technology. Click here to view the school website.

Click here for the Popcorn in Space article that appeared on the front page of the NJ Herald!

Click here for the Groundhog Day article that appeared on the front page of the NJ Herald!

We have limited seats available in grade 6 for the current school year and are now accepting applications for next school year for grades 6-8. Click here to apply today...