Significant snow for parts of our area tomorrow...
There will be a significant snowfall for Northeast PA, that is for sure, but trying to figure this out for the rest of us is as difficult as I have ever seen.
The problem trying to figure this one out is that AI models are now being produced and the AI European ensemble mean is the bar far the most accurate of all the models and it isn't even close. However, I have no idea how accurate the snowfall map is because we very simply have never used it before. What makes it most difficult of all is that this model is the one that produces the most significant snowfall for a large part of our area. To add to the difficulty is that the track of the center of the disturbance (remaining southeast of our area) and the temperature (already below freezing with very cold dew points) would all favor much more in the way of snow that rain for our area. So, I am a more than a bit perplexed by the models indicating a sudden sure of air just as the precipitation starts and ending just as the precipitation ends. It is just strange. It might be right, but it is definitely weird, especially when the European AI ensemble mean is indicating much more snow than any other model which leans towards what I am seeing. However, I am very unwilling to go all in on this and will just say that a significant snowfall is likely for Northeast PA and Orange County, NY, with a light to moderate snowfall likely in East Central PA, Northwest NJ, and Orange County, NY, and the chance for some snow into Central and Northeast NJ, the rest of Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfireld County, CT.
I am going to post the various European model snowfall maps below and we will just have to wait and see how this works out.
Below is the latest European model ensemble mean AI -based model snowfall map, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the latest European model ensemble mean physics-based model snowfall map, courtesy Weatherbell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the latest European AI-based model snowfall map, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the latest European physics-based model snowfall map, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
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