Saturday, February 5, 2011
Today's Afternoon Model Runs
Today's afternoon model runs continue to show the threat of an inch or two of snow on Monday night and then the possibility of a more important storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast on Thursday. Both storms will need to be watched closely. The first storm on Monday night is forecast to develop a little too late to become a major storm for us, but if it develops a little quicker it could actually bring us more snow, or if it develops later, a little less. So at this point, expect at least some snow on Monday night between about 7pm and 7am on Tuesday morning with the focus on late night hours between 10pm and 4am. The next and possibly more important storm will be developing along the Gulf of Mexico coast, in the Deep South, on Wednesday and is then forecast to come northward and up the East Coast on Thursday. The only question is how far up the coast will this storm come? The European model is the model that currently brings it up the coast far enough and close enough to us to bring a significant snowstorm to our area. The other global models keep it far enough off the coast and away from us to prevent it from affecting Northern New Jersey. The only thing we can say at this point is that there remains the potential for a significant storm affecting our area on Thursday. My gut instinct with this potential storm on Thursday is that it will indeed affect our area significantly. The European model is the most statistically accurate forecast model and it typically does better with these types of East Coast storms, although no forecast model is perfect. When I look at situations such as this, I also strongly believe in the theory of history or patterns repeating themselves, and I ask myself, when is the last time we did not have a mid-week storm? Therefore, going out on a limb, I would say we would have a significant storm on Thursday based on the European model's depiction and pattern recognition. Will it happen in actuality? Stay tuned for further updates. Same bat time, same bat channel. Have a great afternoon everyone!
Later Week Threats
The overnight and early morning models continue to indicate the possibility of some snow on Monday night (probably 1 or 2 inches) with a more significant storm possible on Thursday. I will post another update later after the late morning models come out.
Started as Sleet
The precipitation started as sleet everywhere and there is a light accumulation of ice on everything already. The start time was pretty much in line with my original thinking of around 6am from what the computer models, mainly the European model, showed several days ago, even though for some reason the models pushed the start time back yesterday. This means that this will end up being a little more of an ice threat than the models were indicating last night, as the cold air is still very much in place at these early hours. The sleet should start transitioning over to freezing rain over the next several hours before finally changing to rain in areas to the south and east starting around 1pm this afternoon, and as late as 4pm this afternoon in areas to the Northwest. The precipitation will turn back to snow flurries around 9 or 10pm this evening, with little or no accumulation expected. I will post another update on the later week threats in just a bit. But first a cup of coffee is necessary.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Late Evening Run of the American Model for Saturday's Storm
The late evening run of the American model for Saturday's storm continues the most recent pattern of developing an even warmer solution for tomorrow. It has also trended later with the start time, to later in the morning, possibly as late as 9 or 10am. It still shows the storm starting as freezing rain, but no longer starting as snow, or if it does, it would very quickly change to freezing rain, then to plain rain by 12 or 1pm as surface temperatures rise above freezing. The freezing rain could hold on till as late as 3 or 4pm in Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties before also rising above freezing there as well. The rain will eventually change back to light snow around 10 or 11pm on Saturday before ending a couple of hours later, with little accumulation. This has been a tremendous turn of events in the models with this storm, for what only a couple of days ago appeared to be a snowstorm, to what is now mainly going to be rain with a little ice and a touch of snow. Big change of tune with the models. Anyway, less snow for us to have to deal with. Let's try to enjoy this break if we really get it tomorrow. I will keep you updated.
Late Afternoon Model Run for Saturday Storm
This storm is looking like and less of a threat with each model run as the American model is now starting to look more like the latest run of the European model. The latest run of the American model is indicating that the storm may start a little later around 9 or 10am as light freezing rain for a few hours, then transition over to rain, before ending as a little light snow or flurries late in the evening, but not even really accumulating. So, this Saturday storm is now looking like less of a threat for most people. As long as the models are correct and this storm continues to bring warm air in with it, it will be mainly rain, with a little bit of ice at the beginning. Of course, for those of you who live in Sussex County or Northern Passaic County, the ice will last a little longer.
Early Afternoon Update
The European model came in so warm with this storm for tomorrow morning that it says the precipitation would quickly change over to rain for everyone and be rain throughout the day. The American models still insist on more of a freezing rain situation during the day tomorrow. All the models agree that the storm will turn back to snow tomorrow night between 8 and 10pm approximately and linger until early Sunday morning around 6am as light snow and flurries, possibly bringing an inch or so of accumulation. THE NEW IMPORTANT INFORMATION FORM THE MODELS IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS AS IF OUR SMALL STORM FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY IS TURNING INTO SOMETHING MORE SIGNIFICANT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT WE COULD GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOW STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 8PM AND ENDING AROUND 6 OR 7AM ON TUESDAY. In addition, the Thursday threat is still there on the models, and that has the potential to be a significant storm which may linger into Friday morning the way it looks now. I will post another update this evening on the threat for tomorrow. Hopefully we will have a little better idea of the surface temperatures tomorrow, which will make the difference between plain rain or ice for tomorrow.
Friday late morning update
The latest model run continues to show the snow beginning around 6am and possibly quickly changing over to sleet and then freezing rain for areas to the south and east, with the transition moving to the northwest as the day goes on. I am now concerned once again about this becoming more of an ice issue. It looks as if the freezing rain may now continue until around 2pm in the afternoon in most places. It should then warm up enough in most locations to change most locations to plain rain, then eventually it will likely change back over to snow, sometime in the late evening, possibly after 10pm. The new model indicates that the light snow may actually linger until early Sunday morning and could produce up to an inch of accumulation at the end. I will post further updates as new information becomes available and as the longer range models come in early this afternoon with the Thursday storm threat.
Friday Morning Update
The way it looks now, most areas, if not all areas in Northern New Jersey will transition over to a mix or even rain for a period during the middle of the storm on Saturday. The storm will start as snow in all areas at around 6am on Saturday. It will then transition over to sleet, freezing rain, and then possibly rain in most areas, then change back to snow several hours before ending at around 8pm on Saturday night. The average accumulations of snow/ice should be between 1-3 inches. Of course, this is dependent upon how long individual locations are snow before and after the transition period. So, areas in the northwest part of New Jersey will receive the higher end of the totals and areas to the south and east toward the lower end. This is all subject to change though of course, so stay tuned for updates. Also, there is the possibility of a little light snow on Monday and Tuesday and for a more significant storm on Thursday.
Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday for Northeast New Jersey
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>071-042200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
347 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND A GLAZE TO UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CHANGES TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A
MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY
EVENING.
* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. CAUTION IS URGED WHILE DRIVING FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
MALOIT
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>071-042200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
347 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND A GLAZE TO UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CHANGES TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A
MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY
EVENING.
* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. CAUTION IS URGED WHILE DRIVING FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
MALOIT
Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday for Sussex County
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-042100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.110205T0600Z-110206T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW
AND ICE COVERED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-042100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.110205T0600Z-110206T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW
AND ICE COVERED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday for Warren and Morris Counties
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-042100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.110205T0600Z-110206T0300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN,
THEN CHANGING TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW
AND ICE COVERED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-042100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.110205T0600Z-110206T0300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
424 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN,
THEN CHANGING TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW
AND ICE COVERED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Evening Update
No significant changes to previous forecast. The evening model runs are largely the same as the previous run. The accumulation of snow on Saturday will be dependent upon how much of a mix we get. The models have not come to a consensus yet as to exactly where the all snow vs. mix line will set up. The Thursday storm is still there as well. I do want to add though, that although it will not likely be a large storm, there is the possibility for a little light snow on Monday or Tuesday, or both as well. I will keep you updated.
Winter Storm Watch Issued for Sussex County
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011
...A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-041000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT TIMES.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW
COVERED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
MEOLA
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011
...A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-041000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT TIMES.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW
COVERED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
MEOLA
MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
This afternoon's European and American models BOTH indicate the possibility of a huge storm here for Thursday of next week, and there is the possibility that it will be a major snowstorm with strong winds. Of course this is a long way out, but it is something to watch seriously and keep in the back of your mind at this point. This is the storm that I was talking about earlier in the week for the middle of next week. The models indicated a potential storm but did not seem to have the details worked out yet. The models now seem to be consolidating our mid-week potential storm and focusing on Thursday of next week. This has the potential to be a big one. Of course track and intensity are not easy to forecast this far out, so stay tuned for further updates.
Thursday Afternoon Update on Saturday Storm
The Saturday storm will begin around 6am and end around 8pm. The storm will start and end as snow in all areas, but it does now look like there is the possibility for a mix with sleet, freezing rain, or possibly even rain in all of northern New Jersey, with the likelihood of a mixture or changeover increasing for areas to the south and east and closer to New York City. The changeover or mix is not a certainty at this point, but the models indicate it as a possibility. Any areas in northern New Jersey that receive all snow will get 6 inches, and those areas that mix or change over will have their accumulations held down. At some point tomorrow we will have a clearer picture as to who will changeover or mix and who won't, but right now it appears that a mix or changeover is possible for everyone in Northern New Jersey. I will post updates on this impending storm this evening, around 6pm, after the next model runs come in.
Saturday Storm Threat Still On
There continues to be the threat of a 6 inch snowstorm in Northern NJ on Saturday. The start time will be around 6am and the end time will be around 8pm. The rain/snow line at the beginning of the storm will be from just northwest of New York City, running through Bergen County, Southern Passaic County, just south of Morris County, and through Hunterdon County, with the southern end of those counties possibly getting a little rain or mix for part of the storm before transitioning to all snow everywhere. Those areas just to the northwest of that line, from Northwest Bergen County, through Northern Passaic County, Northern Hunterdon County, and all of Morris, Warren, and Sussex Counties, should see this entire storm as snow. Total accumulations should approach 6 inches. There continues to be the potential of one or even two possible snow threats next week, starting on Monday, but the details are simply not there yet, so let's take things one step at a time. As soon as the models have a better handle on those threats I will let you know. Have a great day everyone!
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Power Outages, Downed Trees, Room Collapses. Oh my.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM ICE STORM SCOTCH PLAINS 40.63N 74.37W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE ON NJ ROUTE 22. ALL LANES CLOSED.
0800 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE AT MILE MARKER 23 ON NJ ROUTE 28.
0900 AM ICE STORM WATERBURY 41.56N 73.04W
02/02/2011 NEW HAVEN CT OTHER FEDERAL
ROOF COLLAPSE OF A BOWLING ALLEY.
0905 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ALL LANES CLOSED ON NJ ROUTE 28 AT ARLINGTON ROAD DUE TO
DOWNED POWERLINES.
0918 AM FLOOD WEST ORANGE 40.79N 74.26W
02/02/2011 ESSEX NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
NJ ROUTE 10 CLOSED DUE FLOODING AT PLEASANT VALLEY WAY.
0923 AM FLOOD YONKERS 40.95N 73.87W
02/02/2011 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA
1 LANE CLOSED ON SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY SOUTHBOUND DUE TO
FLOODING.
0940 AM ICE STORM ROSELLE PARK 40.67N 74.27W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ PUBLIC
TREE DOWN WITH WIRES CAUSING MINOR FIRE.
0944 AM ICE STORM EAST HAVEN 41.30N 72.86W
02/02/2011 NEW HAVEN CT OTHER FEDERAL
ROOF COLLAPSED OF A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.
0946 AM ICE STORM SOUTH HUNTINGTON 40.82N 73.39W
02/02/2011 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA
JERICHO TURNPIKE CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT DIX HILLS
ROAD DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.
0949 AM FLOOD FORT LEE 40.85N 73.97W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ROUTE 67 SOUTHBOUND AFTER TOM HUNTER ROAD IS CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING.
0950 AM FLOOD SADDLE RIVER 41.03N 74.10W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
2 LANES CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON ROUTE 17 SOUTHBOUND
BEFORE SHERIDAN AVENUE.
0951 AM FLOOD OAKLAND 41.03N 74.24W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
RIGHT LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON I-287 SOUTHBOUND
AFTER EXIT 57.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 CLOSED AT WHEELER POND ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT MOBILE STATION CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 32 AT CUMBERLAND FARMS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT LYNCH HILL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1028 AM ICE STORM MIDDLETOWN 41.55N 72.65W
02/02/2011 MIDDLESEX CT LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF COLLAPSE OF A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.
1101 AM ICE STORM MILFORD 41.23N 73.06W
02/02/2011 NEW HAVEN CT LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 1 INJ *** ROOF COLLAPSE OF A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.
THIS LED TO A GAS LEAK. ONE REPORT OF MINOR INJURY.
1135 AM ICE STORM MIDDLETOWN 41.55N 72.65W
02/02/2011 MIDDLESEX CT EMERGENCY MNGR
ROOF COLLAPSE OF A BUILDING ON MAIN STREET.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM ICE STORM SCOTCH PLAINS 40.63N 74.37W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE ON NJ ROUTE 22. ALL LANES CLOSED.
0800 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE AT MILE MARKER 23 ON NJ ROUTE 28.
0900 AM ICE STORM WATERBURY 41.56N 73.04W
02/02/2011 NEW HAVEN CT OTHER FEDERAL
ROOF COLLAPSE OF A BOWLING ALLEY.
0905 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ALL LANES CLOSED ON NJ ROUTE 28 AT ARLINGTON ROAD DUE TO
DOWNED POWERLINES.
0918 AM FLOOD WEST ORANGE 40.79N 74.26W
02/02/2011 ESSEX NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
NJ ROUTE 10 CLOSED DUE FLOODING AT PLEASANT VALLEY WAY.
0923 AM FLOOD YONKERS 40.95N 73.87W
02/02/2011 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA
1 LANE CLOSED ON SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY SOUTHBOUND DUE TO
FLOODING.
0940 AM ICE STORM ROSELLE PARK 40.67N 74.27W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ PUBLIC
TREE DOWN WITH WIRES CAUSING MINOR FIRE.
0944 AM ICE STORM EAST HAVEN 41.30N 72.86W
02/02/2011 NEW HAVEN CT OTHER FEDERAL
ROOF COLLAPSED OF A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.
0946 AM ICE STORM SOUTH HUNTINGTON 40.82N 73.39W
02/02/2011 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA
JERICHO TURNPIKE CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT DIX HILLS
ROAD DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.
0949 AM FLOOD FORT LEE 40.85N 73.97W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ROUTE 67 SOUTHBOUND AFTER TOM HUNTER ROAD IS CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING.
0950 AM FLOOD SADDLE RIVER 41.03N 74.10W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
2 LANES CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON ROUTE 17 SOUTHBOUND
BEFORE SHERIDAN AVENUE.
0951 AM FLOOD OAKLAND 41.03N 74.24W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
RIGHT LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON I-287 SOUTHBOUND
AFTER EXIT 57.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 CLOSED AT WHEELER POND ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT MOBILE STATION CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 32 AT CUMBERLAND FARMS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT LYNCH HILL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1028 AM ICE STORM MIDDLETOWN 41.55N 72.65W
02/02/2011 MIDDLESEX CT LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF COLLAPSE OF A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.
1101 AM ICE STORM MILFORD 41.23N 73.06W
02/02/2011 NEW HAVEN CT LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 1 INJ *** ROOF COLLAPSE OF A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.
THIS LED TO A GAS LEAK. ONE REPORT OF MINOR INJURY.
1135 AM ICE STORM MIDDLETOWN 41.55N 72.65W
02/02/2011 MIDDLESEX CT EMERGENCY MNGR
ROOF COLLAPSE OF A BUILDING ON MAIN STREET.
6 INCH SNOWSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
After looking at this afternoon's runs of the computer models, it does seem that a 6 inch snowfall is a real possibility on Saturday. The rain/snow line will be close by, so it is possible that areas to the south and east, closer to New York City might start as rain and transition over to snow, holding accumulations down a bit there, but it is really too early to get into those details just yet. Let's just say at this point that there is a possibility of a 6 inch snowstorm in Northern New Jersey on Saturday. The start time would be around 6am on Saturday and the end time would be around 8pm. And yes, I am still watching for the possibility of another storm on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Local Storm Reports
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM ICE STORM SCOTCH PLAINS 40.63N 74.37W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE ON NJ ROUTE 22. ALL LANES CLOSED.
0800 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE AT MILE MARKER 23 ON NJ ROUTE 28.
0905 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ALL LANES CLOSED ON NJ ROUTE 28 AT ARLINGTON ROAD DUE TO
DOWNED POWERLINES.
0918 AM FLOOD WEST ORANGE 40.79N 74.26W
02/02/2011 ESSEX NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
NJ ROUTE 10 CLOSED DUE FLOODING AT PLEASANT VALLEY WAY.
0923 AM FLOOD YONKERS 40.95N 73.87W
02/02/2011 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA
1 LANE CLOSED ON SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY SOUTHBOUND DUE TO
FLOODING.
0946 AM ICE STORM SOUTH HUNTINGTON 40.82N 73.39W
02/02/2011 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA
JERICHO TURNPIKE CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT DIX HILLS
ROAD DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.
0949 AM FLOOD FORT LEE 40.85N 73.97W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ROUTE 67 SOUTHBOUND AFTER TOM HUNTER ROAD IS CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING.
0950 AM FLOOD SADDLE RIVER 41.03N 74.10W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
2 LANES CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON ROUTE 17 SOUTHBOUND
BEFORE SHERIDAN AVENUE.
0951 AM FLOOD OAKLAND 41.03N 74.24W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
RIGHT LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON I-287 SOUTHBOUND
AFTER EXIT 57.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 CLOSED AT WHEELER POND ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT LYNCH HILL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 32 AT CUMBERLAND FARMS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT MOBILE STATION CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM ICE STORM SCOTCH PLAINS 40.63N 74.37W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE ON NJ ROUTE 22. ALL LANES CLOSED.
0800 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
DOWNED TREE AT MILE MARKER 23 ON NJ ROUTE 28.
0905 AM ICE STORM CRANFORD 40.66N 74.30W
02/02/2011 UNION NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ALL LANES CLOSED ON NJ ROUTE 28 AT ARLINGTON ROAD DUE TO
DOWNED POWERLINES.
0918 AM FLOOD WEST ORANGE 40.79N 74.26W
02/02/2011 ESSEX NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
NJ ROUTE 10 CLOSED DUE FLOODING AT PLEASANT VALLEY WAY.
0923 AM FLOOD YONKERS 40.95N 73.87W
02/02/2011 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA
1 LANE CLOSED ON SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY SOUTHBOUND DUE TO
FLOODING.
0946 AM ICE STORM SOUTH HUNTINGTON 40.82N 73.39W
02/02/2011 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA
JERICHO TURNPIKE CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT DIX HILLS
ROAD DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.
0949 AM FLOOD FORT LEE 40.85N 73.97W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
ROUTE 67 SOUTHBOUND AFTER TOM HUNTER ROAD IS CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING.
0950 AM FLOOD SADDLE RIVER 41.03N 74.10W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
2 LANES CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON ROUTE 17 SOUTHBOUND
BEFORE SHERIDAN AVENUE.
0951 AM FLOOD OAKLAND 41.03N 74.24W
02/02/2011 BERGEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA
RIGHT LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON I-287 SOUTHBOUND
AFTER EXIT 57.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 CLOSED AT WHEELER POND ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT LYNCH HILL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 32 AT CUMBERLAND FARMS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
1018 AM FLOOD MONTVILLE 41.44N 72.12W
02/02/2011 NEW LONDON CT TRAINED SPOTTER
ROUTE 163 AT MOBILE STATION CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
Watching Saturday and Next Tuesday/Wednesday
I continue to watch for the possibility of storms on Saturday and next Tuesday/Wednesday. Just keep these days in the back of your mind. I will keep you updated.
So far so good
Well, a heck of an ice storm, do doubt about it. Some power outages scattered around New Jersey with large outages in central New Jersey in Flemington and Basking Ridge. If you still have power consider yourself lucky. Often times though the power outages start as the temperature finally gets above freezing and the ice starts to fall off the trees and hits the power lines. Here is a link to the JCP&L power outage map http://www.firstenergycorp.com/outages/outages.do?state_code=NJ and the PSE&G power outage map http://www.pseg.com/home/customer_service/outage_info/outagemap.jsp
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Last Minute Thoughts
Make last minute preparations in case of a loss of power. Consider yourself lucky if you do not lose power. If you do not hear from me for a while it is because I lost Internet access due to a loss of power. Let's all hope for the best. Good luck everyone!
Evening Update
Hot off the press from the latest run of the American model. This could potentially end up being a catastrophic ice storm for everyone that does not get above freezing tomorrow. The model predicts surface temperatures to remain below freezing for everyone, for about 85% of the storm, but does show it getting above freezing at about 9am for Morris and Bergen counties, and areas to the south and east of there. I hope this is right and that it is not even colder than the model is depicting. The model indicates that Northern Passaic, Sussex, and Northern Warren counties never get above freezing at any point tomorrow. For our sake, I hope the model is wrong and that it gets above freezing, or by some chance we get some sleet. If this is all freezing rain, like it looks it will be for most of us, we are in trouble. The model shows between 3/4 and 1 inch of freezing rain starting at around 1am and ending around 2pm tomorrow afternoon. This amount of freezing rain would certainly cause many branches and trees to fall, causing power outages. I hope by some chance that it warms up more or we get some sleet. Otherwise this is not going to be good.
ICE STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR REST OF NORTHERN NJ
Ice Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEST AND NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA...
.LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM IN
THE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY
DEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-020400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110202T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.IS.W.0001.110201T1949Z-110202T2300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
* AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPES: HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SLEET OCCURS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND
SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.
* ACCUMULATIONS: GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IF SLEET OCCURS...
GLAZE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS BUT SLEET COULD ACCUMULATE ONE
HALF INCH.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT THIS
STORM.
* TIMING: SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PROGRESS WILL INTENSIFY TO
FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE WORST OF THE
GLAZING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. POWER OUTAGES
ARE EXPECTED FROM BREAKING TREE LIMBS AND WIRES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF GLAZE EXCEEDS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...THIS WOULD
RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE
WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEST AND NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA...
.LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM IN
THE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY
DEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-020400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110202T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.IS.W.0001.110201T1949Z-110202T2300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
* AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPES: HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SLEET OCCURS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND
SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.
* ACCUMULATIONS: GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IF SLEET OCCURS...
GLAZE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS BUT SLEET COULD ACCUMULATE ONE
HALF INCH.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT THIS
STORM.
* TIMING: SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PROGRESS WILL INTENSIFY TO
FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE WORST OF THE
GLAZING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. POWER OUTAGES
ARE EXPECTED FROM BREAKING TREE LIMBS AND WIRES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF GLAZE EXCEEDS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...THIS WOULD
RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE
WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.
Snow on Saturday
Confidence is now high that there will be a 3-6 inch type snowstorm on Saturday starting in the early morning hours around 6am and ending in the late afternoon around 4pm.
ICE STORM WARNING JUST ISSUED!!!!!
Ice Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-020600-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.IS.W.0001.110201T1623Z-110202T2300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS IN
EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
* ACCUMULATIONS...A 1/4 TO 1/2 AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TIMING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVELING
CONDITIONS...WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES LIKELY BEING
FELLED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-020600-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.IS.W.0001.110201T1623Z-110202T2300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1123 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS IN
EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
* ACCUMULATIONS...A 1/4 TO 1/2 AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TIMING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVELING
CONDITIONS...WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES LIKELY BEING
FELLED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.
Original call was for a changeover at 10am
It just changed over to a sleet/snow mix here at 10:10am. I was off by 10 minutes. My original call was for 3 inches before the changeover. Got 2 inches here before the changeover. I missed on the accumulation, but we still might get enough sleet to add that total. By the way, the actual verification temperatures continue to be about 5 degrees colder than what the models indicated. This is looking more and more like a severe ice storm. I hold hope though that we can at least maintain sleet longer and avoid some of that freezing rain.
Snow Starting to Change Over to Ice Already
There are reports that the snow is already changing to sleet in some locations in Northern New Jersey. So, if it has not already changed to sleet in your location, it will soon. The majority of the snow portion of this storm already appears to be nearly over. It is mainly, if not all, ice from here on out. Bad stuff. I was really hoping for a little more snow to help absorb the freezing rain that is going to fall. This would make the freezing rain situation even worse, unless we can manage a little more snow before the changeover.
ONE OF MY CONCERNS ABOUT TOMORROW
As I stated in my previous post, the models often have a hard time forecasting surface temperatures. The two American models and the European model show some areas of Northern New Jersey getting above freezing tomorrow around 9am and changing the freezing rain over to rain. These are the same models that forecast the temperature at 7am this morning at my weather station to be, by the European model 23 degrees, and the two American models said 20 degrees and 19 degrees. The temperature at 7am this morning at my weather station was 15 degrees. If these temperature trends continue through tomorrow, and they may, we truly may be about to witness a very severe icing situation throughout Northern New Jersey.
Morning Update
The snow may hold on just a little longer before mixing with or changing over to sleet and freezing rain today between 10am and 1pm, accumulating to 3 or 4 inches before the changeover starts to take place. This first round of heavier precipitation with come to end around 2 or 3pm at which time the precipitation will become light and intermittent until around 2am on Wednesday when the freezing rain will begin again and become heavy. The freezing rain will continue until about midday around 12 or 1pm. There is a possibility that some areas, especially to the southeast get above freezing around 9am on Wednesday. The areas that should remain below freezing will be Northern Warren County, Sussex County, Northern Morris County, Northern Passaic County, and Northwestern Bergen County. The areas that remain below freezing will see this entire 2nd round storm as freezing rain and will receive more than a half inch of ice, and possibly 3/4 of an inch or even a little more. This would cause tree limbs to break, and there would likely be widespread power outages. The only hope is that the temperatures rise just a little more and more areas get above freezing, but ground temperatures are nearly impossible to predict accurately. This is the best guess at the moment. People in Northwestern Bergen County, Northern Passaic County, Sussex County, Northern Morris County, and Northern Warren County will need to watch this freezing rain situation very closely. Even those areas that change over to rain around 9am will have received up to a half inch of ice, so this is still a significant icing event in those areas. I will issue updates constantly. Also, as I stated earlier, if possible, don't remove snow from your driveways until after the entire storm is over on Wednesday afternoon, as the snow will create a nice blanket for the freezing rain to sit on and soak into, then you can nicely remove the snow, as it is very difficult to remove that amount of ice if it accumulates on your driveway. The next storm to watch will be Saturday. I will keep you updated.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Evening Update - PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES!
Hot off the press from the latest American model that just came out. The snow will begin some time around 2 or 3am and will continue until around 10am, accumulating to around 3 inches, then it will starting mixing with sleet and freezing rain. The sleet and freezing rain will continue until the afternoon hours around 3 or 4pm with light ice accumulations on top of the snow. Precipitation will then be light (probably light freezing drizzle) until around 2am on Wednesday morning when the second round begins with what will likely end up being a VERY SEVERE FREEZING RAIN EVENT. THE ICE COULD ACCUMULATE TO 1 INCH!!! THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE ICING EVENTS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY IN MANY YEARS FOR NORTHWEST BERGEN COUNTY, NORTHERN PASSAIC COUNTY, SUSSEX COUNTY, MORRIS COUNTY, AND WARREN COUNTY!!! Areas just south and east, such as southeast Bergen County, southern Passaic County, and areas closer to the city, may warm up just above freezing at about 9am, about half way through the storm, to prevent a severe ice storm, yet even in those areas it would be a significant ice storm, with about a half inch of ice accumulation. The freezing rain should come to an end around 2pm on Wednesday and could possibly be followed by a little light snow to whiten the ground. Then we can start looking forward to the next possible snow on Saturday.
Very Severe Icing Event Possible
The concerns are growing for a severe icing event in Northern New Jersey, unlike any that has been seen in many years. It looks like we will be getting around 3 inches of snow prior to the changeover to sleet and then freezing rain tomorrow. Then with round 2 on Wednesday morning we may again get 2-3 inches of snow before a changeover to freezing rain. It looks unlikely that Northern NJ will get above freezing in most locations, which could lead to a very significant and dangerous icing situation on Wednesday morning and afternoon. I continue to hope that the cold air will at least somewhat win the battle and we could get more snow, which would hold down the icing situation. Of course, the other is also possible. I want to reiterate something that I stated earlier. If possible, leave the snow where it is and don't shovel until the storm has completely finished and changed back to light snow or flurries on Wednesday night, otherwise you might find yourself stuck with an inch of ice on everything, which will be hard to remove. Also, I have stopped in several stores recently (Wal-Mart, Lowes, and some local mom and pop hardware stores) and they are out of ice melter, so you will not want to use it all up unnecessarily trying to remove that amount of ice. It is much easier to let the freezing rain form a nice crust on top of the snow, and have the snow soak it up, than it is to try and remove an inch of ice from your driveway. Oh, did I mention that I am already following another storm for Saturday that could bring at least a few inches of snow? Anyway, I will keep you updated after the new evening computer model runs start coming in at 9pm.
Winter Storm Warning Issued for Bergen County and All of Northeast NJ
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CTZ008>010-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ071-011100-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
457 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO A
HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING INTERMITTENT
TUESDAY EVENING. THEN A MIX OF HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OF LATE WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY KNOCK DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CTZ008>010-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ071-011100-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
457 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO A
HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING INTERMITTENT
TUESDAY EVENING. THEN A MIX OF HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OF LATE WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY KNOCK DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
&&
$$
Winter Storm Warning Issued for Northwest and Central NJ
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF OUR REGION FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-010645-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.110201T0500Z-110202T2300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
542 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
* AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW LATE TONIGHT WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET
TUESDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* ACCUMULATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO ACCUMULATION AS THEY ARE
PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT. BEST ESTIMATE IS 4 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW AND SLEET WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS. IN ADDITION...ABOUT
ONE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF ICE MIGHT ALSO OCCUR... GREATEST
AMOUNT IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
* SNOWFALL RATE: MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH AN HOUR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2PM.
* TIMING: SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
BACK IN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE REGION FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW AND THEN ICE.
ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON TREE LIMBS AND UTILITY WIRES FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF OUR REGION FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-010645-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.110201T0500Z-110202T2300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
542 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
* AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW LATE TONIGHT WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET
TUESDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* ACCUMULATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO ACCUMULATION AS THEY ARE
PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT. BEST ESTIMATE IS 4 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW AND SLEET WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS. IN ADDITION...ABOUT
ONE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF ICE MIGHT ALSO OCCUR... GREATEST
AMOUNT IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
* SNOWFALL RATE: MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH AN HOUR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2PM.
* TIMING: SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
BACK IN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE REGION FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW AND THEN ICE.
ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON TREE LIMBS AND UTILITY WIRES FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
No Significant Changes to the forecast
This afternoon's European model agrees with the American model from earlier this morning, so there are no changes to this morning's forecast. Snow will begin around 2am on Tuesday and accumulate to around 3 inches by 10am when it should mix with or change to freezing rain and sleet, ending around 3 or 4pm. Then the second round begins on Wednesday morning around 2 or 3am as snow, sleet, or freezing rain, then changes to all freezing rain, with the main precipitation ending around 3 or 4pm and then changing to some light snow before ending in the evening, possibly whitening up the ground with a coating to an inch of snow at then end. I will update once again if there are any changes when model runs come in this evening.
Monday Morning Update
The latest run of the American model just came in and again shows the snow starting on Tuesday morning around 2am and continuing until around 10am with around 3 inches of accumulation, when it will start mixing with and possibly changing to sleet and freezing rain and ending around 4pm. (If this first round of precipitation turns out to be all snow it would accumulate to about 6 inches) Then the 2nd round starts at about 3am on Wednesday as either snow, sleet or freezing rain changing to all sleet and freezing rain by around 10 or 11am with the steady precipitation ending around 3pm on Wednesday afternoon and changing to light snow which will end on Wednesday evening with perhaps a dusting to an inch of accumulation at the end. That is the way it looks right now. I will keep you updated, but at the moment the situation on Wednesday with the ice looks downright horrible. Hopefully it trends to more of a snow situation. By the way, if this were to be all snow it would be about 18 inches. The is a link to the latest projected snowfall map from the morning run of the first American model for the Tuesday portion of the storm only. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif and here is the map for the Tuesday and Wednesday storms combined. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif If the cold air settles in a little better it could possibly move the higher accumulations further south. We will have to wait and see. I will keep you updated.
Winter Storm Watch Issued for Bergen County and Northeast NJ
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
CTZ008>012-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ069>071-312200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARDS...SNOW TUESDAY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO
A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
SLEET CONTINUES MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
CTZ008>012-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ069>071-312200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARDS...SNOW TUESDAY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO
A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
SLEET CONTINUES MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Winter Storm Watch Just Issued for Northwest and Central NJ
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST USA...
.SNOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RESUME AS HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY.
NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-310945-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.110201T0800Z-110202T2200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AS WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW TUESDAY MORNING CHANGES TO SLEET OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PERIODS OF
HEAVY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY. GLAZE
MAY ACCUMULATE FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
* TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM TUESDAY. THE
CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS: THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 20. THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO ICE AND
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE MAY STILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ALL
UNTREATED PAVEMENTS. IF GLAZE REACHES OR EXCEEDS ONE HALF
INCH...POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO...THE WATER EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS STORM MAY EXCEED ONE INCH AND THIS ADDED
TO SNOW LOADS ON SOME ROOFS AND ATTEMPTING TO RUN OFF INTO ICE
ALREADY ICE CLOGGED ROOF GUTTERS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRUCTURE LEAKS.
* CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON BOTH SNOW AND GLAZE OCCURRING BUT
TOP END AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
DRAG
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST USA...
.SNOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RESUME AS HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY.
NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-310945-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.110201T0800Z-110202T2200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AS WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW TUESDAY MORNING CHANGES TO SLEET OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PERIODS OF
HEAVY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY. GLAZE
MAY ACCUMULATE FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
* TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM TUESDAY. THE
CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS: THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 20. THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO ICE AND
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE MAY STILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ALL
UNTREATED PAVEMENTS. IF GLAZE REACHES OR EXCEEDS ONE HALF
INCH...POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO...THE WATER EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS STORM MAY EXCEED ONE INCH AND THIS ADDED
TO SNOW LOADS ON SOME ROOFS AND ATTEMPTING TO RUN OFF INTO ICE
ALREADY ICE CLOGGED ROOF GUTTERS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRUCTURE LEAKS.
* CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON BOTH SNOW AND GLAZE OCCURRING BUT
TOP END AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
DRAG
MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES!!!!!
The storm has trended colder on the latest model run, which is not a big surprise to me at all. In addition, it shows even more precipitation than the previous run. This means that a few significant changes are necessary to the forecast. First of all, the timing remains the same with the storm, starting around 2 or 3am on Tuesday, but the snowfall amounts on Tuesday are now likely to be higher, possibly significantly higher. I would now estimate 3-6 inches of snow on Tuesday before it slows down and becomes intermittent on Tuesday evening. Then there will be somewhat of a break between storms, much like the storm of last week. The 2nd round will then begin early on Wednesday morning around 2 or 3am again. This round of precipitation could begin as snow, sleet or freezing rain. It is now looking as if there is very little chance of a changeover to rain, in fact one of the two American models manages to keep most of it snow now. The other American model that just came out has the 2nd round as mainly freezing rain. The National Weather Service has in fact said there is now a small possibility of "catastrophic icing" in their daily storm briefing. I have to be honest. I am hoping that the model showing mostly snow is right, or that the models continue trending colder, even if that means we get 18 inches of snow, because if we get ice, it really could be very, very, bad. I have pasted a link below to a snowfall projection map from the model that says it will be mostly snow now, and I will be posting shortly the one that shows mostly icing, but still significant snow on Tuesday. This is a link to the briefing where the National Weather Service mentions the possibility of, "catastrophic icing" http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
and a link to the latest projected snowfall output from the snowier of the American Models http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
And a link to the latest run of the other American model which shows a snowy solution also for Tuesday, then freezing rain for Wednesday, so on this model, this is the snowfall for Tuesday alone. http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif
and a link to the latest projected snowfall output from the snowier of the American Models http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
And a link to the latest run of the other American model which shows a snowy solution also for Tuesday, then freezing rain for Wednesday, so on this model, this is the snowfall for Tuesday alone. http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif
No Significant Changes to the Forecast
Snow will begin in the early morning hours of Tuesday, around 2 or 3am. The snow will continue throughout the morning and early afternoon and accumulate to around 3 inches by early afternoon, before changing to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon. The freezing rain will continue throughout the night on Tuesday and morning hours on Wednesday, before possibly changing to rain, as temperatures may finally rise above freezing around 9am on Wednesday. There will be a significant ice accumulation prior to the possible changeover. So, for those of you who have to shovel the snow, wait until the freezing rain ends to do your shoveling, if possible. If you shovel before the changeover, you will have a serious problem with the ice. Below is the projected snowfall from today's afternoon run of the American model.
-CLICK HERE FOR MAP-
-CLICK HERE FOR MAP-
Will issue an update early this afternoon
So far, things are consistent with my previous post. I am just waiting on updated computer data from the afternoon model runs before posting an update. Expect an update by 2pm.
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