This storm was a forecasting challenge!
This storm was one of the most difficult I have ever had to forecast. While it was pretty clear that most of us would see at least some snow, trying to forecast the sharp cut-off on the northern end was challenging and even more challenging is the strange banding in this storm. I am getting reports from people with only an inch or two, while the next town over has 5-7 inches. Here at my location in Allamuchy, Warren County, there is already 6 inches and it is still snowing moderately.
I was the lowest around with my snowfall estimates in most places, then adjusted snowfall estimates this afternoon and may have gone too high in some places, but we will have to wait and see if these places at least reach the low end of my estimates. Possibly I should have left my forecast from this morning alone? We shall see.
The snow will end tonight and will continue into early morning on Eastern Long island. Things will then clear out with highs in the upper 30’s and 40’s tomorrow.
Friday and Saturday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Friday and the 40’s Saturday.
Sunday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers that could accumulate a coating to an inch in some places as a weak disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Monday through next Wednesday will then be nice with highs in the low to mid 40’s Monday, the upper 40’s to mid 50’s Tuesday, and the 50’s Wednesday.
Next Thursday clouds will increase with a chance of showers as a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 50’s.
Next Friday then looks nice with highs in the 50’s.
Next Saturday through Monday then look cloudy with a chance of rain or snow as a couple of disturbances pass through our area, possibly turning into a Nor’easter off the NJ Coast. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s next Saturday, and the 40’s next Sunday and Monday, dependent upon whether the Nor’easter develops.
Next Tuesday then looks nice with highs in the 40’s.
Have a wonderful evening!
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