Tuesday, November 26th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

My first reference to this possible storm was 15 days ago on the evening of Monday, November 11th.  Of course I did not get into much detail.  But I will paste this post below just so you can see.  You may find it interesting.  I am delighted that things did not turn out worse than they did today.  The precipitation did start briefly as snow and the temperatures did dip below freezing in most areas to the west of Route 287.  Ice did accumulate on trees and cars, but I did not have a major problem getting home today, with only a few small patches of ice on the roads.  Most areas to the east of Route 287 remained slightly above freezing.  Moving forward, we will have a crazy next 24 hours with heavy rain developing around 11 pm and continuing the rest of the night.  Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 50’s by sunrise tomorrow morning, with very heavy rain between about 1 am and 9 am and moderate rain continuing until around 2 pm.  Then it will start getting colder, with temperatures dropping to the 30’s in the afternoon and the rain will change to snow showers or flurries between 4 pm and 7 pm from west to east, ending in the early morning on Thanksgiving Day with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible in some locations.   Total rainfall amounts should be around 2 inches and the heavy rain during the rush hour will cause some major travel headaches in the morning with some flash flooding and ponding on roadways highly likely.  In addition, winds will be gusting to 20-30 mph and possibly higher, so the morning commute is likely to be horrible.  Then it will get quite cold for Thanksgiving Day with low in the mid to upper teens in the morning and the high only in the mid to upper 20’s and there will be a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower or flurry.  It will continue to be cold on Black Friday with lows in the mid to upper teens and highs in the low 30’s and there will again be a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower in the morning.  It will get even colder still for Saturday morning with lows dropping to the low to mid teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.    Then warm air will start to move back into the area on Sunday with a chance for some light snow on Sunday morning, changing to light rain by afternoon, then back to light snow on Sunday night.  Then on Monday and especially for Monday night into Tuesday morning we need to watch for the possibility of a Nor'easter to develop near the Middle Atlantic Coast.  If this storm develops it will move due north, likely remaining offshore, keeping us on the cold side of the storm, however it currently appears that it will be just a touch too warm for snow on Monday and Tuesday at this point in time.  However, I will surely say that we need to keep a close eye on this one.  If it intensifies enough, and fast enough, it could pull cold air into it, causing the precipitation to fall as snow instead.  There are still several possibilities for this potential storm and it still has only about a 50/50 chance of occurring at this point.  One is that the storm does not develop at all, or remains far off shore, keeping us dry.  The second possibility is that it just sideswipes us or does not develop and remains a fairly weak storm, allowing the precipitation to fall as rain.  The third possibility is that it could develop quickly and be quite intense, which could allow it to pull cold air into it and cause a big snowstorm.  We will just have to wait and see what happens. We will then likely get another storm for Thursday night into Friday morning which will most likely be rain.  The next chance of snow would be another potential Nor'easter for around Tuesday, December 10^th or Wednesday, December 11^th.   Stay safe and be prepared for an extremely difficult morning commute tomorrow.  Have a nice evening. 

Monday, November 11th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

Everything remains on track for a little snow tomorrow morning throughout Northern New Jersey with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible in some locations, especially in the higher elevations.  Some roads may become slick during the morning rush hour as temperatures will get below freezing in many locations, especially during the heavier bursts of snow.  The snow should start around 1 am and end around 8-9 am. Things will clear out and cool down after the front passes with highs tomorrow and Wednesday only in the mid to upper 30's and lows reaching the low to mid 20's on Wednesday morning and the mid to upper 20's on Thursday morning.  Temperatures will warm to the low to mid 50's this weekend.  There will be a slight chance of a shower on Saturday, then showers will be likely next Monday and Tuesday, with heavy showers possible next Wednesday as the front passes through.  Temperatures may remain cold after that front passes, possibly through Thanksgiving.  If that ends up being accurate then we would need to watch for the possibility of more chances for snow just prior to Thanksgiving.  It is really too early to say for sure though.  Looking back at what happened with the models predicting this major Nor'easter this week that won't happen, I am now fairly certain in hindsight that what happened was that the models were confused by the incredible Typhoon that hit the Philippines   This typhoon may have been the most intense storm in history anywhere on the planet. Remember how Sandy last year was the strongest storm to hit New Jersey in recorded history?  This typhoon makes Sandy look insignificant in terms of intensity.  It surely can explain how my favorite model may have messed up. The models are global models, meaning they must get everything right across the entire planet in order to get the forecast right in our backyards.  Click here to read about this typhoon, one of the strongest, and quite possibly THE strongest to hit our planet in recorded history.