Friday, January 10th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

There is a lot to talk about this evening.  First of all some areas may see the light rain start this evening as light freezing rain, prior to temperatures warming above freezing, so if you are driving this evening be aware of this possibility.  Then we will see heavy rain tomorrow combining with temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s to cause snow melt to our north and melting of the ice in the rivers.  This is likely to lead to some serious flooding in some locations along large rivers and streams throughout Northern New Jersey.  If you know anyone who lives or works near any large rivers or streams please tell them to be on the lookout for ice jams along the rivers.  What makes ice jams particularly dangerous is that they block the flow of water in the river, leading to very rapid localized flooding.  Then we will likely have a repeat performance on Tuesday with more flooding rains and temperatures in the 50’s.  Then there is a chance, although right now you would still have to say it is a long shot, but we appear to have a real chance at a significant snowstorm on Wednesday.  The American, British, and European models all indicate the chance of some significant snow on Wednesday.  The reason I say it is still a long shot is that, at the moment, this appears to be a localized event, although it may be a quite significant and quite intense event, it will only be so in a about a 50 mile wide swath.  This 50 mile wide swath is at this particular moment situated right over Northern New Jersey, then up into Eastern New England.  If this band moves only 50 miles to the east it would miss us completely.  So, this storm has to remain a long shot at this point until we get a few more model runs showing it, but already the evening run of the American model shows it again, nearly identical to the prior run, and nearly identical to what the European and British models show.  The timing of this storm would be starting on Wednesday morning and ending on Wednesday evening.  Then moving forward, it does appear that we will have a pattern change to a much more snowy look for at least the next 2 weeks, with chances for snow on Friday night into Saturday of next week, then Tuesday or Wednesday or the following week, then again around Friday or Saturday of that week, then again the Tuesday of the week after that.  So, it does look as if we are in for a busy couple of weeks with the weather, and it also looks like a snowy next couple of weeks ahead.  Check back in the morning to see if the Wednesday snowstorm is still there.  Have a nice evening.