Thursday, January 9th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, the European model threw us a bit of a surprise here at the last moment with the possibility of up to an inch and a half of snow in Northwest New Jersey tomorrow morning.  The European ensemble mean however is not as enthusiastic and has us down for between a half of an inch and an inch.  I would go with that as my forecast for all of Northern New Jersey.  The National Weather Service issued a Freezing Rain advisory for Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, and Somerset counties for 3 am to 1 pm tomorrow, but honestly, I have no idea what they are talking about.  I looked at every piece of information I have and see no signs of anything that indicates freezing rain tomorrow morning.  All I find on all the models supports very light snow starting around 5 am, then becoming moderate between around 10 am and 11 am before ending. So, a light dusting is likely between around 5 and 10 am and then the majority of whatever we end up getting, most likely a half of an inch to an inch falling between 10 am and 11 am. The models then show the snow ending and a break before the light rain moves in around 10 pm or 11 pm tomorrow night, but the models show the temperatures warming above freezing in the early afternoon, possibly dropping below freezing in the evening, but then warming above freezing as the light rain moves in, so I guess there would be the chance of a bit of freezing rain tomorrow night, but not tomorrow morning, and it may not happen at all.  Then it will absolutely pour all day on Saturday, especially in the afternoon and evening.  This rain is likely to cause some flooding and I am quite concerned about the possibility of ice jams on the rivers causing some intense localized flooding with very little warning as we get very heavy rain, combined with some snow melt, especially to our north, and temperatures reaching the mid 50's, so if you live or work near a river or large stream, please be on the lookout for ice jams. It will likely rain hard again on Tuesday, then it will get colder and we will have a slight chance of some snow showers on Wednesday, then another chance of snow showers next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, then again the following Tuesday.  Check back for updates, but expect the possibility of a slippery morning commute with the light snow, although the heaviest of the snow currently looks as if it will fall between 10 am and 11 am.