Wednesday, January 1st, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, this impending storm has been a nightmare to try and forecast.  The European model held fast until yesterday, giving every indication of a very significant snowstorm for us.  Then yesterday it backed down completely.  Now it is on the verge of indicating this being a very significant snowstorm again.  The American models went nuts last night, then backed off today, then came back again, now the American medium-range model backed off.  Almost every major storm we have ever had in this area has these volatile changes at the last minute.  What makes these storms so intense and dramatic in the first place is the volatile conditions that create them.  This causes havoc with the models as very small changes in initial conditions can have dramatic effects on the eventual outcome.  As we go to sleep this evening I can honestly say this storm can go anywhere from being a fairly insignificant nuisance to an all-out blizzard with more than a foot of snow.  Most likely we will end up right in between the two.  Will all of this in mind, I will go into this evening continuing with my rather broad range forecast of 4-10 inches.  I am not yet ready to narrow this down further.  I would expect that the models will converge by tomorrow morning and I will give you a nearly exact snowfall forecast.  Right now though I am leaning towards the exact middle of the 4-10 inch range or around 7 inches in most locations.  That is as of right now, based on the latest computer guidance.  This may very well change in the morning and can easily go either way, so I encourage you to check back.  Keep in mind that although the snow flurries may have already started in Sussex County in some places, the snow should be very light for at least the next 24 hours.  It should not get moderate to heavy until tomorrow night after the evening rush.  The heaviest of the snow should fall between 7 pm tomorrow night and 7 am on Friday morning, coming to an end around or shortly after sunrise on Friday.  It will also be very windy on Friday morning, with winds possibly gusting over 30 mph, which has the potential to break some tree limbs.  This could in turn cause some scattered power outages.  It will then get very cold as the storm departs, with temperatures dropping to the upper single digits to low teens and hold steady all day on Friday, then drop below zero at night, possibly as low as the upper single digits below zero in the coldest locations, with most locations in the middle to low single digits below zero by Saturday morning and the high only reaching the mid teens on Saturday.  We will then have to watch for the chance of some freezing rain in some locations on Sunday night, followed by heavy flooding rains with massive snow melt on Monday morning as temperatures soar to the low 50's by Monday morning and then drop to the 20's by Monday evening.  This would cause any standing water from the heavy rain and flooding to freeze rapidly.  In addition, winds will likely gust over 30 mph again, which with the softened ground from heavy rain and 50 degree temperatures could cause some tree limbs to come down, again with the potential to cause some scattered power outages.  We may also get some snow flurries or a snow shower on Monday afternoon before the precipitation ends. The temperatures will then drop to the upper single digits to low teens by Tuesday morning and hold steady all day and then drop to around zero by Wednesday morning with a high only in the mid teens.  It then brings in the next storm on Thursday night as light snow, changing to rain next Friday and Saturday. This is some crazy stuff.  Have a nice evening and HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!  Please also remember to tell all of your friends, relatives, neighbors, co-workers and unknown people you have never met before about this blog.  Thank you!