When I was telling people today that we could get a major snow storm on Friday many people were mentioning that the forecast from the radio, television stations, and the National Weather Service all said that it would rain and be 50 on Friday. Meanwhile I was saying that it would be in the 30’s and we could get significant snow. Well, while I was driving home today CBS radio which had a forecast this morning and even when I left work today of rain and 45-50 on Friday, changed the forecast by the time I got home to rain or snow and a high of 35-40. Now the National Weather Service which for days has said it would be 50 degrees and rainy on Friday, has changed their forecast too. They even just issued a Hazardous Weather Statement for the possibility of heavy snow on Friday! Here is their newly updated forecast. They are getting closer, still not there, but closer.
Thursday Night: Rain likely before midnight, then rain and snow likely between midnight and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday: Snow likely before 11am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
I was also asked how they could issue forecasts like that without even mentioning the possibility of snow, when I have been talking about this for a week. The truth is that I have no idea. I don’t have an answer. It is amazing to me how I can see these things a week before them most of the time and this is just a hobby for me.
that's why I only follow your reports now! Thanks for all the updates!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteThank you.
But they may be right on...... Especially city and immediate burbs. Mr. G says high in the 50s Friday afternoon. Hard to believe but who knows this time of year.
ReplyDeleteJay, they said Rain and 47 with no mention of snow. If there is any snow at all, then they are wrong. Their current forecast for the immediate suburbs is 2-5 inches so they have already admitted they were wrong. Of course, maybe we will all end up being wrong. Let's see what mother nature has in store for us.
ReplyDeleteJay, also, they said 47 and rain in my location and in Oakland, NJ where they now have winter storm watches in effect for 5-10 inches and 4-8 inches of snow, so they are admitting at this point that their forecasts were probably very wrong. Do you work for the National Weather Service or something?
ReplyDeleteJay, I am not saying they needed to forecast snow, but I feel that they certainly should have mentioned the possibility. I would have made a forecast of rain or snow and a high in the upper 30's at the time, not rain and 47. To make that type of a forecast was in my opinion, improper and very strange. People depend upon their forecasts. How can you depend upon a forecast of 47 and rain when there was not even a mention of the possibility of snow? When I was a kid, they would have issued a forecast like the one I said, rain or snow and high in the upper 30's. This type of forecast at least gives people an idea of what might happen, so they can keep an eye on it. A forecast of 47 with rain and no mention of the possibility of snow is misleading. It is their job, to make that type of a forecast, is to me simply amazing, and they do it all the time.
ReplyDeleteThe medium range forecasts you are referring to by the NWS are computer generated using the GFS model and are updated automatically. The NWS doesn't have the resources to manually update these forecasts which is why they have their discussions which talk about more possibilities - these have mentioned the possibility of a storm for days now. I wouldn't look at anything outside of 48 hours without a grain of salt on that 5-7 day outlook page you are referring to. The models are way too inconsistent in this time frame. Take yesterday per example 72 hours out calling for 1 to 2 feet throughout northern NJ. We all know if this wereto occur it would be isolated but if you read the models verbatim that's what people would think. Good conversation!
ReplyDeleteJay,
ReplyDeleteI see, you do understand this stuff. You are correct, they are computer generated forecasts. That is the problem that I have with them. In my opinion, they actually went backwards when they went to computer-generated forecasts. I truly believe that the forecasts were better years ago when we had humans making the forecasts, obviously. There really is no reason they could not do it like that now as well. It was someone's brilliant idea to have a computer generate a forecast. I agree with you about the National Weather Service being underfunded though. They are well underfunded and are cutting back another 30% on their funding this year. The National Weather Service radar was down for several days until today. Thank goodness they got it fixed today. I almost went to school for meteorology years ago but decided not to because of the lack of pay combined with not being able to pick where I lived. The lack of funding is killing the National Weather Service. Thanks for the discussion.