Thursday, March 24, 2011
Final Storm Thoughts
As the accumulating snow is ending throughout the area, I thought I would post a few storm reflections here. While I got the accumulation forecast right in some areas in Warren, Morris and Sussex Counties, I missed in other areas, especially in Northeast New Jersey, even though areas like Caldwell and West Orange manage to meet my forecast. A couple of things happened that caused my forecast to fail in those locations. One was that the main moisture at the start of the storm on Tuesday night did not make it into Northeast New Jersey much to the north of Caldwell and West Orange. Another was that the precipitation did change over to sleet as the convective activity on Wednesday afternoon and evening made it into our area. These things caused my accumulation forecast to fail in the locations where you did not get at least 6 inches. In my backyard, even with a change to sleet yesterday afternoon, we still managed to get about 7 inches of accumulation. Andover in Sussex County even reported 10 inches. As far as a comparison to the National Weather Service, I beat them in some areas and they beat me in others. Call it even I guess. However, I did talk about this possibility a week in advance when they only started talking about it a day in advance. So, maybe give the edge to me? Get it? Signing off for now from the Edge Weather. Have a great day everyone. In addition, yes, for now, it looks like the Sunday and Tuesday/Wednesday storms are going to miss us to the south, hopefully, anyway. I will let you know.
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I, for one, am glad that the majority of precipitation slid to the south of Vernon this time around. Accumulation pretty much ended by 8pm last night, with spotty light snow here and there overnight.
ReplyDeleteAs usual, you served as a GREAT early warning system. Thanks for your services, Edge!
I still think that you are more accurate and have given us more information than many of the top weather people on TV. We are lucky to have you. Keep up the good work. I'm looking forward to your reports of sunny and 70's from now on. Hopefully, you'll be saying that next week!
ReplyDeleteThis is the ONLY weather site Keith and I even look at. You always have the information long before "the suits". Thank you!!
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that the NWS can't really go public with great detail to far in advance just because they will lose credibility. Imagine the uproar today if they came out with that 6-10 inch forecast for here in the city? Nobody would listen to them anymore. I think they are clueless sometimes but they stayed safe and hit this one pretty well. And so did you! Good job on the higher accumulations north and west.
ReplyDeleteYewslus,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for your kind words and you are welcome.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteThank you so much.
swirlynj,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteThank you.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteI understand what you are saying, but remember, only a couple of days before the storm they were calling for rain and 50 degrees. I was talking about the possibility of snow. They did this with the storm on Monday also, saying it would be rain and 51 degrees. Instead we had 5 inches of snow here with a high of 37. In my area they also only upgraded us to a winter storm warning for this storm, after we already had 5 inches of snow. I talked about this possibility a week in advance. I would not have issued an official forecast in New York City for 6-10 inches. I probably would have said 1-3 inches with the possibility of more. Yes, I was too high in some locations, but overall, I think they could have done much better than to say rain and 50 degrees 2 days prior to the storm. After all, that is their only job. I just do this for a hobby.
You should write them a letter and tell them how to do things! I'm sure they will listen.
ReplyDelete