The latest run of the short-range American model just came out and shows exactly what I was thinking when I issued my 6-10 inch forecast for ALL of Northern New Jersey earlier today. Click here to view the snowfall accumulation map from the model - http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
I am using a combination of this model and the European model for my forecast of 6-10 inches, while the National Weather Service is using other models in combination with those models, which produces a mixture with rain and sleet, holding down accumulations. Neither the short-range American model nor the European model shows this mixture, hence my higher snowfall forecast. If there is a mix with rain or sleet, snowfall accumulations will indeed be lower than my forecast. I am going with my gut instinct on this forecast that no one in Northern New Jersey will see any mixing, or only a very little. Let us see how it plays out. In addition, the National Weather Service is forecasting less than an inch of accumulation in the city. I think they will be very wrong with this forecast as well. I can see New York City getting substantial accumulations as well. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. Stay tuned and thank you for listening.
What a nail-biter... can't wait to see how this plays out. I'm rooting for your predictions!
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think for schools? It wouldn't make sense to have a delayed opening so either an early dismissal or a snow day for tomorrow? which of the two are you thinking?...or a normal day?...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteThank you. It will be interesting. Let's see what happens.
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteSchools are a tough call. First thing of importance is the starting time. If it starts at around 2am like I think it will, there is a chance. If it is later, the chances decrease significantly. So, I give it a 50/50 chance of no school, but a 90% chance of an early dismissal if there is school. I would also say there is a 60% chance of a delayed opening on Thursday. Those are my best guesses. Good luck.