Wednesday Morning Update

Rain will start this afternoon and continue lightly through most of the night tonight. Temperatures today should reach the 50’s, and then drop to the 30’s tonight. Some higher locations in northwest New Jersey will likely change over to snow tonight, with accumulations of up to an inch or so. Thursday the weather will clear out and temperatures will get into the lower 50’s. Friday is likely to be a cool and rainy day with highs only in the 40’s and dropping to the 30’s during the afternoon. The rain could again change to snow in the higher elevations of northwest New Jersey, where it is possible that the snow could accumulate significantly in some higher elevations, so this will need to be watched closely. The rain and snow should end on Saturday morning, and then temperatures will moderate to the 50’s on Saturday, the 60’s on Sunday, and possibly even the 80’s on Monday. Next week will be very nice until late on Thursday when our next chance of precipitation moves in and temperatures cool again for next Friday. Pasted below is this morning’s discussion from the National Weather Service where they discuss the potential for snow in the higher elevations of northwest New Jersey tonight and on Friday night.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AS ENERGY FROM THE
WEST INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS THERMAL ZONE LOOKS TO
OCCUR RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INITIAL ENERGY LOOKS
FAIRLY WEAK AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING WAA ALOFT AND A
RIBBON OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
SETTLE SOUTHWARD A LITTLE MORE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT, WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS ENOUGH COOLING LOOKS
TO OCCUR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW LATER FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WHERE
THE BAROCLINIC/THERMAL FORCING BECOMES ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA.

WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION AS THEY SEEM TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THEREFORE,
WE INCREASED THE POPS TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES
STRETCHED WEST TO EAST. THIS MAY END UP BEING A FAIRLY NARROW AREA
OF PRECIPITATION. WE TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE MORE FOCUSED LIFT. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES INDICATES SOME SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND QPF AMOUNTS,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT HIT THE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE THAT HARD
ATTM. FOR NOW, WENT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS.

FOR THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY DURING THE MORNING
THEREFORE WE WILL TAPER THE POPS DOWNWARD. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
DRIZZLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE ADDITIONAL DRYING OF THE
COLUMN OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
SURFACE FRONT THOUGH LOOKS TO STALL IN OUR VICINITY, THEREFORE AT
LEAST SOME CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER. AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SOMEWHAT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY START TO GET A BIT ACTIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WAA ALOFT SURGES UP THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NIGHT AS A MORE EFFICIENT OVERRUNNING
SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREFORE, WE BROUGHT IN SOME POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST AND INCREASED THEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY, THE SECOND SURFACE LOW ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF WAA AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE DEPARTING THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND, HOWEVER WE MAY END UP HOLDING ONTO A MORE
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND ESPECIALLY IF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
THE DELMARVA REGION. THEREFORE, SOME BUST POTENTIAL ON TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME SNOW OCCURS
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS SOME. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THOUGH ON WHERE
THE MAIN QPF AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED. DESPITE THE GFS BEING FARTHER
SOUTH, IT IS WARMER THAN THE NAM WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW, WE
ADDED A MENTION OF SOME SNOW JUST IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS.