Saturday Morning's Weather Discussion - Strong Nor'easter on Friday

This weekend should be quite nice, but cool with highs mainly in the upper 50’s and lows around 40. The next chance of rain will come on Monday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance approaches our area. Tuesday should then be a nice day. Wednesday will feature the next chance of rain as a cold front approaches our area. The cold front will then stall and continue the chance of rain on Thursday. Then things get very interesting as a strong disturbance in the upper atmosphere will dive south from Canada into the Southeastern United states and form into a storm that will track to the East Coast near the DelMarva Peninsula (where Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia meet) on Friday night. As the storm is approaching the DelMarva Peninsula it will intensify quite rapidly and form into a strong Nor’easter as it then moves north along the New Jersey Coast on Saturday, then North along the New England Coast on Saturday night and Sunday. This is the exact potential that I have been watching since last Saturday and that I have been talking about here on this blog since Monday night. The main question will be how much if any of the precipitation falls as snow in our area. There will be heavy precipitation on Friday and possibly Saturday as well. If the storm takes the track that is currently projected, keeping the center of circulation to our south and east, it will be able to keep the cold air in place in our region. Will it be cold enough for snow? That is the most difficult question to answer. I feel confident now that we know a significant Nor’easter will take place and the basic idea about where the center of low pressure will track. Unfortunately, determining who will get rain and who will get snow is much more difficult. Right now, going with what the European model shows, it should be rain on Friday with a changeover to snow early on Saturday morning in all regions. Some light accumulations are possible on grassy surfaces even down into the valleys of Northern New Jersey, but possibly a couple of inches of accumulation in the higher terrain of Northern New Jersey where it is even possible that it could accumulate on the roads on Saturday morning. Total liquid precipitation amounts should be in the 1-2 inch range, although some of this could fall as snow. Stay tuned as any change in track or intensity could change this forecast significantly in either direction, and changes are highly likely as this storm is still 6 days away. I will keep you updated.