Tuesday Morning's Weather Discussion

Today there will be just a slight chance of a shower this morning, and then it will be mostly cloudy until tomorrow morning when a storm system will move into our area with cool weather and rain, heavy at times for tomorrow and ending on Thursday morning. There should be around an inch of rain, which should not cause much in the way of flooding problems, but will make for a rather cool and ugly day with temperatures in the 50’s all day. Friday through Sunday should be quite nice but cool with lows in the morning in the middle 40’s and highs in the afternoon in the upper 50’s. The next chance of a shower would be Monday with only a slight chance of a shower as a weak cold front passes through our area. There will again be only a slight chance of a shower next Wednesday, as warmer air moves into our area, with the southerly winds ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Then things could get very interesting toward the end of next week as a Nor’easter could develop along the East Coast of the United States. It is still a long way away, but there is the potential for a significant storm to develop for the weekend of October 28th, 29th, and 30th, and this storm might have cold air to work with depending on how far East the strong cold front makes it before the storm starts to develop. Yes, it could be quite warm just prior to this on Wednesday or Thursday of next week as there will be a strong southerly wind flow ahead of the approaching cold front, but if that front passes through our area before the Nor'easter starts to develop, it will bring in much colder air. The European model does not go far enough out to catch the developments of the Nor’easter or to tell us how far East the cold front will make it before the storm develops, as the European model only goes out to 10 days. However, the American model, which goes out to 16 days, has been indicating for several days now that this cold front could come through our area as early as Wednesday night, bringing us high temperatures only in the 30’s for the approach of the storm on Friday of next week. The American model does indicate the possibility of significant snow in our area for the weekend of October 28th, 29th, and 30th with highs only in the 30’s and lows into the 20’s. Of course, this is a long way out and it is only a possibility. More often than not, modeled storms this far out do not happen, but it is something of which I thought you should be aware. I will keep you updated. Of course, if it does happen, you can say you heard it here first.