Friday Morning's Weather Discussion

There will be a slight chance of a rain or snow shower this afternoon as the very cold air that is over us begins to warm with the afternoon sun, causing some instability in the atmosphere, which could cause a shower of rain or snow to develop this afternoon. This weekend should be beautiful but cool tomorrow morning with lows around or just below freezing, then warming into the 50’s both days. On Monday there will be a slight chance of a shower but temperatures will start to moderate, reaching the lower 60’s. Tuesday there will be showers as a front approaches our area, then it will clear out for Wednesday. Thursday should be a nice day but there will be a slight chance of a rain or snow shower at night. Next Friday should be nice as we will likely be between systems, then next weekend does not look good, with a chance of showers both days. A look out towards Thanksgiving Day shows the possibility of some rain but the chances of snow seem to have lessened quite a bit now. The weather pattern that is in place at the moment is one that would bring us quite a few chances for rain, but not much in the way of chances for snow, as the storms are currently wanting to cut to our West and into the Great Lakes, which would keep the warmer air in place in our region. The only chances for snow at the moment would be with smaller scale weather features such as the one today and the one that is possible on next Thursday night, or possibly at the very start of the one next Saturday. There are signs that the pattern might change just after Thanksgiving, but that is a long way off, so it is too early to tell if that will actually occur. The storm on October 29th is looking like a very freak storm at the moment that was caused from a unique number of things coming together, and does not at the moment seem like it has anything to do with the actual weather pattern in place. Interestingly, studying the winters after October snows in our area shows that winters where we have had our first snow in October has traditionally produced a less snowy winter than normal. We will have to wait and see if that holds true again.