Monday Morning's Weather Discussion - Big Changes for Next Week. The Start of Winter - Type Weather?

For those of you who don’t want snow, you have won again as the European model has given up on the rain changing to snow on Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning, so I have removed that from the forecast. The European model seems to have a bias of leaving moisture in place behind cold fronts, so I will be careful about putting that in my forecast from now on as it has done that twice now in the past week or so. It has however been much better than any other model at getting the ultimate track of major storm systems correct, so I will also be more careful to follow its solutions from now on, even if it is the only model showing that solution. In that regard, it has done a major flip-flop for next week, but first let me talk about this week. Today there will be a slight chance of a shower, and then tomorrow there will be showers during the day with a steady rain developing at night. The rain will continue through tomorrow night and into Wednesday morning, heavy at times on Wednesday morning. The rain will taper to showers on Wednesday afternoon and will end late in the afternoon. Then Thanksgiving Day will be sunny but cool with temperatures in the middle 40’s. Friday and Saturday will be quite nice with highs in the 50’s. Then Saturday night a cold front will come through cooling things off for Sunday with highs in the middle to upper 40’s. Then this is where the European model did a major flip-flop from yesterday. I had to do a double take when I looked at it early this morning. Yesterday the model showed rain and highs in the 60’s early next week. Today it shows sunny and highs in the 30’s with lows in the 20’s for early next week, with a chance of some light snow on Tuesday night with the potential of a significant storm, possibly a snowstorm late next week. We will have to wait and see, but after the model’s performance with the big details with this last storm and being the first model to see the change in the pattern, I am going to follow it until it changes. It also got the October 29 snowstorm right on the mark. As I said, the only problem it seems to be having is with it showing lingering moisture behind fronts, so I will be more cautious about that, but for now, it looks like the weather really may be crazy next week. Next week may be the start of a winter-type weather pattern according to the European model. Of course, the American model still says it will be in the 60’s on Monday and Tuesday, so we will have to wait and see, but after the way the American model handled this last storm, I do not trust it. I can only assume the European model sees the change in the pattern and the American model does not see it yet. Of course, now that I say this, watch the European model change on the next run. Well, anyway, I am putting this as my forecast unless the European model changes again.