Saturday Morning's Weather Discussion

I finally feel as if the models have a reasonably good handle on things for the next week and it does not look good for those of you who were hoping for snow. Until or unless the overall long-range weather pattern changes, snow will be hard to come by. Often the long-range forecasts for the entire winter work out well as it is much easier to see the overall pattern than it is to see what an individual storm will do. In that regard, the pattern that was forecast for this winter and that we have been seeing so far (excluding the anomalous October 29 event), is one in which storms will go to our northwest, which brings the warm air in with them, causing rain. Of course, it is always possible for the pattern to change, or to change for a brief time, long enough for an individual storm to go against this pattern, but overall this is what is happening. As we get further into winter, in January and February, it will be much colder and this pattern is one in which the storms would likely start as snow or freezing rain then change to rain, but for now, we only have to worry about rain for the most part. As far as this coming week goes, it will be quite nice today and tomorrow with highs reaching the lower 60’s. On Monday, there is a slight chance of a shower, then the chance of showers increases on Tuesday. On Tuesday night that storm that I have been talking about all week, will start moving north, bringing heavy rains on Tuesday night, ending early on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be variably cloudy and cooler as the cold front will have moved through early in the day. Next Thursday and Friday should be quite nice, but cool, and there will be a chance of a flurry on Friday night as a strong cold front approaches our area. Next weekend through next Monday will be sunny but cold in the mornings with lows generally in the 20’s. The threat in yesterday’s forecast for a snowstorm next Monday has now moved to Tuesday, but this may very well end like all of the other threats so far this season that early on looked like snow threats but end up being rain. We will have to wait and see.