Time to Talk More About Thursday Night and Friday

I have been watching the Thursday night into Friday period very closely for quite some time now. I have had concerns about possible developments in this period and the models had indicated some possibilities earlier on, but then lost those possibilities. Now the models seem to be catching on to the potential again. What my concern is, and what I have been watching closely is the arrival of a strong cold front in our area on Thursday night, potentially combining with a storm system coming out of the South Atlantic, East of the Bahamas. The models seem to be having a very difficult time handling how these systems will combine. The models agree on the fact that they will combine, but right now focus on them combining further north on Friday, bringing us some rain on Thursday and Thursday night with the frontal passage, then possibly some rain or snow showers early on Friday, especially Friday morning. I must mention though that there is a possibility, albeit just a possibility at this point, that these two systems might form into a rather strong Nor’easter off the coast of New Jersey once again. If this were to occur, it would lead to much more in the way of rain and wind, and possibly snow for some sections of Northern New Jersey, especially higher elevations in the Northwest part of the state. I am watching this potential closely. If this were to occur, the heaviest precipitation would happen overnight on Thursday night into Friday morning, and possibly into Friday afternoon. I remind you though that this remains just a possibility at this point, but I felt it was important to let you know, just in case. Stay tuned. Following is the latest advisory on this system from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER AN AREA
EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN