Wednesday Morning's Weather Discussion - Uncertainty Continues for Next Week

Well, the weather uncertainty continues for next week but first, it will be mostly sunny today through Sunday with highs generally in the middle to upper 40’s except for Sunday when it could warm to the lower 50’s in some places. On Monday, a cold front will approach our area and a weak storm will form along the front bringing some rain, as we will still be on the warm side of the front. Then on Tuesday the European model run this morning again looks like the run from yesterday morning with an upper level low diving down from Canada as the cold front moves through our area and off shore. Cold air will then dive down into our area behind the front. Then, according to the European model, the front will stall just off shore and an upper level low will merge with the stalled out cold front and produce a coastal storm somewhere along the Northeast Coast of the United States. This is all IF the European model is correct. Every other model still has the front moving through and clearing us out for Tuesday and Wednesday. If though the European model is correct it would bring us the chance of the rain changing to snow on Tuesday afternoon and evening and continuing through the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, ending early on Thursday morning. The accumulations would not be heavy if the storm forms as the European model is showing; however, there is a great deal of uncertainty as to whether or how the storm might form. It may not form at all, which would just clear things out after the front passes on Tuesday morning. On the other hand, if the storm forms, it could form further to the south bringing us a more significant snowfall, or it could form further to the north preventing us from receiving much of any snow at all. Then the European model only gives us a one-day reprieve on Thursday as it then develops another storm along the Gulf Coast that could again merge with a system diving down from Canada, forming another coastal storm for Friday. There is even more uncertainty with this potential. As I have said before, the European has the highest accuracy ratings of any model, by far, but it is not perfect by any means. It does raise some red flags though when it shows nearly the same solution two days in a row. Stay tuned for further updates this afternoon.