Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Cutting Back Heavily on Accumulations
I am going to have to cut back heavily on my forecast accumulations. The concern the past week has been whether or not there would be a storm, and if there was a storm, if it would be close enough to us to give us any precipitation. I think this is no longer a concern at all, as there will apparently be quite a strong storm indeed, just as I had thought there would be, however, a new concern has been raised by the latest model trends. Now that the models have finally come to the conclusion that there will be a storm, they are actually bringing the center of the storm so close to us that it is not allowing the cold air to filter in as quickly as had been previously expected. This will dramatically cut down on accumulations throughout our area. My new forecast amounts will be only 1-3 inches throughout our area, with the highest amounts in Warren and Sussex Counties and lower amounts as you head east, with only a dusting to an inch possible in far eastern sections. This is still subject to change, and a very small shift to the east for this storm would dramatically increase accumulations, but that is my best guess at the moment. I will post updates as I get new model information.
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