Friday, December 9, 2011
Impending Big Storm for Monday, December 19th?
I made my famous post about 12 days prior to the storm on October 29th. I am seeing similar signs of an impending storm for Monday, December 19th. I have been watching this storm for 6 days already, and it has popped up almost every day since on one model run or other. The only reason I did not post on this earlier was that I exerted so much time and energy trying to forecast this last storm. Unlike the October 29th storm, which looked clear-cut to me to be a big snowstorm, this one could definitely end up rain or snow. So, I am NOT predicting a snowstorm on Monday December 19th, but I am saying that there may be a BIG storm which could be rain or snow. I am just intrigued by the fact that the latest model run of the American model that just came out is showing a storm in the same place, at the same time that it did 6 days ago. The positions of the storms on the models are simply amazing. You almost cannot tell which run is which, and this is 6 days after it first appeared on the model (and the model only goes out to 16 days, so who knows how long it would have shown up before that). This is exactly what happened with the big October 29th storm, so I find this intriguing. It is by no means a guarantee that a big storm will happen, but my theory is that it is very difficult for a model to continuously be producing a large storm day after day on various model runs in the same position at the same time and not have it actually end up happening. I believe the model is able to notice large-scale atmospheric disturbances at times well out into the future and to give somewhat accurate placement of those features. It is often the smaller details that remain extremely difficult until within a few days of the storm. With the October 29th storm, the model seemed to understand that there was going to be a huge storm where it did end up occurring. I watched it produce the storm in many different ways in the two weeks before the storm actually occurred, as if it completely understood that a storm was going to happen, exactly where it happened, but it did not know what pieces of energy were ultimately going to produce the storm. I think I am seeing similar signs now of an impending storm for Monday, December 19th. Like I said though, this time it is not so clear-cut to me that it would be snow, this time it could just as easily be rain, but like usual in our area it is a close call. Stay tuned.
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