Tuesday Evening Update

After this evening’s model runs, I am going to increase my snowfall totals for Warren, Morris, Sussex, and Northern Passaic Counties to 3-6 inches. I will leave areas further to the east as 1-3 inches. I must say though that this evening’s model runs continue to increase the intensity of this storm. As I said earlier, with the track and intensity of this storm, I am surprised that it is not bringing the cold air in quicker. I am concerned that the models may now start trending colder with each run, and if that does occur, I could end back with the accumulation forecast that I put out this morning. The intensity of the precipitation alone may be enough to cause the precipitation to turn from heavy rain to VERY HEAVY SNOW where the heaviest band of precipitation finally sets up. Right now, that band seems like it is going to set up over Warren and Sussex Counties. I have seen this happen many times. This may or may not happen this time but I am concerned about the possibility, as it would greatly increase the snowfall totals. The earliest I can imagine this happening is around 7pm on Wednesday evening over western sections of Northern New Jersey and 8pm in eastern sections of Northern New Jersey. In any event, the rain should change to heavy snow at some point during the night, by around 1am in western sections at the latest and 2am in eastern sections at the latest. The snow will end around 4am on Thursday morning in western sections of Northern New Jersey and 5am in eastern sections of Northern New Jersey. Click here to view the latest snowfall map from the short-range American model, which follows my thoughts almost exactly at the moment.