Tuesday Morning's Weather Discussion

Things are becoming clearer as far as the Wednesday night into Thursday storm goes, but first there will be showers today and the showers will become more heavy and steady tomorrow. Then tomorrow night the rain will start changing to heavy snow from west to east across Northern New Jersey, starting at about 11pm in Warren and Sussex Counties, about 12am on Thursday in Western Morris and Northern Passaic Counties, about 1am in Eastern Morris and Northern Bergen Counties, and about 2am in Eastern Bergen, Southern Passaic, Essex, Union and Hudson Counties. The snow should end between 4 and 6am from west to east. In this regard, my forecast accumulations are as follows:

Warren and Sussex Counties: 6-10 inches
Western Morris and Northern Passaic Counties: 4-8 inches
Eastern Morris and Northern Bergen Counties: 3-6 inches
Eastern Bergen, Southern Passaic, Essex, Union and Hudson Counties: 2-4 inches

This is my best guess now and is subject to change, either higher or lower, depending on when the cold air actually moves into each region.
Then this coming weekend should be quite nice but cold with lows into the teens in many locations. The next chance of bad weather will be next Tuesday, but there is no guarantee on that storm yet.