Thursday, December 8, 2011
Woke Up at 3am, Looked Outside and....
NOTHING!!! Unreal. I spent almost 2 weeks following this potential storm. The first HUGE difficulty was in determining whether there would even be a storm. Well, there most certainly was, and it turned out to be even MORE intense than I thought it would be with thunderstorms in Northeast New Jersey and wet snow in extreme Northwest New Jersey at the same time! In addition, the rains were incredible, with many areas getting nearly two inches, with some flooding. The winds were also amazing, gusting over 30mph in many places! The stream next to my house is raging this morning! But where is the snow I thought would happen? Plane and simple, the models had shown this storm being here until around 4am this morning, and everything worked very well with my forecast up till 10pm when I went to sleep and it was snowing here. Then I woke up at 2:30, look outside, and the storm is already long gone and there is NO snow on the ground. The storm plane and simply moved out so fast that there was no chance for the snow part of the storm. The cold air made it here right on time, but the storm was already headed for New England and departed our area. I always ask myself what I could have done differently with this storm. Not much really. There was not a single piece of computer guidance that showed this storm moving out of here by around 1am in the morning when it did. I had no way of knowing that would happen until just prior to when I went to sleep last night when I saw the radar and posted here about the fact that it looked like my forecast might bust due to the fact that the radar appeared to show the storm moving MUCH faster than was predicted. To all of you who rely upon me for your weather information, I am truly very sorry. This was the best forecast I could have put out there based upon an analysis of the computer guidance I had. It truly hurts when you spend this much time on something and it does not work out, especially when you know that so many people are depending on the information. To all of you, I am sorry my forecast did not work out this time. Looking on the brighter side of things, at least we don't have to worry too much about our drives in to work this morning.
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