Thursday, October 18, 2012
Evening Update on Flooding Potential Tomorrow
I was waiting for the evening run of the American model to issue this update. It is the American model vs. the European model on the flooding potential. The afternoon run of the European model puts all of Northern New Jersey right in the center of the heaviest band of rain tomorrow morning with more than 2 inches of rain falling throughout Northern New Jersey, which would definitely produce flash flooding and horrendous driving conditions for the morning commute tomorrow. The American models on the other hand produce in excess of an inch of rain, but keep the heaviest area of rain to our East over Long Island and Connecticut. I am not certain at all as to which model is right, but I can tell you that the European model typically does better in this and every other situation, but that does not guarantee that it is correct this time, but if it is, look out tomorrow morning and expect a horrendous drive to work in the morning. The rain is already starting in South Jersey and is moving this way.
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