Friday Morning's Weather Discussion - Lots of Stuff to Talk About

Well, we lucked out today and the rain will likely not be as bad as had been feared, and although none of the models was completely correct, the winner in the European vs. American model goes to the American model this time, and that does not happen very often.  I have noticed however that the American model has been doing better in the weather pattern that we are currently in, and that is a good thing.  Even though the American model has been doing better, the European model still maintains a higher accuracy score.  Anyway, another interesting thing of note is that the long-range outlook for the winter has changed quite a bit and our winter temperatures and precipitation are now expected to be near normal levels, which is quite a change from the National Weather Service outlook that came out last month, which was showing above normal temperatures.   Indeed, to me, the pattern that is developing does appear to have quite a bit of potential, and as we head into November, we may have to start watching for the possibility of winter-weather type storms developing.  Already on the long-range computer models, you can start to see how cold it will be just to our north and storms will be developing along the Gulf Coast.  If by any chance those two things meet in the correct way, we could be looking at some interesting things starting as soon as early November.  We will have to wait and see.  Anyway, for now, it looks as if we lucked out today and the rain will be heavy at times this morning, but it should not be heavy enough to cause any real flooding.  The main problem will be the timing of the heavy rain, as it is moving in just in time for the morning commute, so drive carefully.  Other than the heavy rain today, there is really nothing at all to talk about other than the chance of a shower on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then things may actually get quite interesting after this 10-day period is over.  After the 10-day period, it is looking as if a tropical system may approach Florida and then head up the East coast.  In addition, there will be very cold air not too far away to our North.  I doubt the cold air will be drawn into this system, and it should remain to our North as the remnants of the Tropical Storm bring rain into our area for the week after next, but I will keep an eye on it, anyway something to watch for the week after next.