Latest Thoughts

I have heard local forecasters saying this morning that the storm would miss out to sea, and this is from someone that I actually think is pretty good, and that I like.  I heard them tonight call the European model an outlier, meanwhile the ensemble mean of the American model and four of its members show the exact same thing that the European model does.  I don't even know what to say.  I am just speechless that these guys get paid to do this stuff.  Yes, I can honestly say that I am now convinced that this storm is going to happen.  I am also convinced that it is likely to be one of the most intense storms in recorded history, if not THE most intense storm in recorded history.  My forecast remains the same as it was this morning.  The rain would start on Sunday afternoon or evening and become steadier and heavier throughout Monday and into Tuesday morning.  Then on Tuesday late morning or early afternoon the rain may mix with or change to sleet or snow, and it is possible there could be significant accumulations of snow in some locations as the mixed precipitation or snow would continue until Wednesday morning.  Winds will also be very severe for Monday and Tuesday, gusting easily to hurricane force and possibly quite a bit stronger than that.  Is all this a certainty?  Definitely not, it is Mother Nature, but if I had to guess, I am saying that, yes, I think it will happen.  So, to sum it up, I think there will be strong winds and heavy flooding rains in our area on Monday and Tuesday morning, mixing with or changing to sleet or snow on Tuesday afternoon and continuing until Wednesday morning, and accumulations are possible, especially in the higher terrain.  All of this depends upon the interaction and phasing of a piece of the Polar Vortex with Tropical Storm, soon to be Hurricane Sandy.  Wow.