Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Lower Resolution Version of the European Model Just Came Out

It shows the worst case solution that the operational version of the European model showed this morning, with a landfall of the center of circulation near Asbury Park.  The strongest storm I have ever seen on a computer model.  Let's hope that does not happen.  Meanwhile the ensemble mean of the European model has the center of circulation coming on shore over eastern Long Island.  My best guess at this point is that the center of circulation will come ashore between Delaware and Cape Cod, then within that area, I would narrow it down to between Cape May and Eastern Long Island, and if I had to go out on a limb, I would go for landfall between Asbury Park and Sandy Hook as the model showed earlier today, but possibly to Staten Island or over to JFK airport.  That is my best guess at this time.  As far as intensity goes, I can only imagine that the storm is being overdone a bit (at least I hope so), and I also think it may weaken a bit as it exits the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off shore of New Jersey, which would allow it to weaken for a couple of hours before making landfall.  I just don't know how much of this is wishful thinking and how much is going to end up being reality. 

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